Toan Diep

Bay area guy, engineer, e-commerce seller, crypto holder, stock trader

[북극성 @PolarisLog]

애플 사태 정리

- 팀 쿡은 지금의 메모리 사태를 100년 만에 닥친 홍수에 빗댐

- 애플은 메모리 반도체값이 너무 올라 비싼 부품을 쓸 수밖에 없다며 맥북과 아이패드 가격을 올리겠다고 발표함

- 그러자 마이크론 CEO는 사실 애플이 문제였다며 팀 쿡을 정면으로 반박함

- 애플은 그동안 공급망을 쥐고 원하는 값에 부품을 받아오던 갑 중의 갑이었음

- 과거 반도체값이 폭락하고 제조사들이 적자에 허덕일 때도 애플은 대량 구매를 미끼로 단가를 바닥까지 후려쳤다는 지적임

- 단가 압박에 시달린 반도체 기업들은 돈이 없어 공장을 늘리지 못함

- 증설이 막힌 상태에서 AI 인프라 투자 열풍으로 수요가 터지자 범용 메모리 물량이 모자라 값이 폭등함

- 마이크론 CEO는 지금 메모리가 비싸진 것이 결국 과거 애플이 스스로 자초한 결과라고 못 박음

- 코너에 몰린 애플은 삼성전자, SK하이닉스, 마이크론 세 회사의 과점 체제에 기대던 의존도를 낮추려 함

- 그래서 애플은 값싼 부품을 찾는다는 명분으로 중국 메모리 업체 창신메모리(CXMT)를 대체 공급처로 확보하려 함

- 문제는 CXMT가 미 국방부의 중국 군사기업 명단에 올라 있다는 점임

- 애플은 CXMT로부터 칩을 살 수 있게 해달라며 트럼프 행정부를 상대로 로비까지 벌이고 있음

- CXMT 칩 구매가 법으로 전면 금지된 것은 아니지만 블랙리스트(1260H)에 묶여 있어 거래 자체가 부담임

- 거래가 실제로 추진되면 국가 안보를 걱정하는 미 의회가 거세게 반발할 수 있음

- 그런데 막상 CXMT의 DDR 가격은 메이저 3사와 5에서 10퍼센트밖에 차이 나지 않음

- 원가를 아끼겠다던 명분이 무색하게 CXMT 칩도 별로 싸지 않은 셈임

- 정치 리스크까지 떠안으면서 값도 비슷한 CXMT를 굳이 끌어들이려는 애플의 속내는 따져볼 만함

- 젠슨 황이 왜 그렇게 부지런히 한국와서 치킨과 삼겹살 먹었는지 팀 쿡은 곱씹어볼 필요가 있음

- 늦었으면 지각비 무는 법부터 배워야함

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

$MU $SNDK Apple is making a bad move imo

[Melvin @MelvinInvests]

Apple wants to buy cheap Chinese memory chips and the everyone thinks it's bad news for Micron but it's not (Save this).

CXMT is China's largest DRAM manufacturer, headquartered in Hefei and it was essentially irrelevant three years ago but today it holds 8% of the global DRAM market, up from just 3% a year ago.

The company makes commodity DRAM, DDR4, DDR5, and LPDDR chips primarily for phones, PCs, and consumer devices.

It is heavily subsidized by the Chinese government, operates at costs well below market rates, and has been placed on the Pentagon's Chinese Military Company blacklist due to alleged ties to the People's Liberation Army.

Apple raised MacBook Pro prices by 15% this week and is now desperate to find cheaper memory.

Tim Cook told the Wall Street Journal that everything needs to be on the table when it comes to memory sourcing, and Apple is lobbying the Trump administration for a license to buy CXMT chips technically possible, but complicated by the Pentagon blacklist.

This spooked some memory investors but it shouldn't have.

Here are the five reasons why this barely moves the needle for Micron.

First, Micron essentially already walked away from this market.

Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have all shifted more than 70% of their DRAM capacity toward High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for AI, the premium product running inside every Nvidia GPU and every major AI data center.

CXMT is filling a hole that Micron chose to vacate because HBM generates 3–5x more revenue per wafer.

Second, CXMT cannot make HBM, its most ambitious stated goal is to begin certifying HBM3 for mass production by end of year, a full generation behind where SK Hynix and Micron already are in HBM3E production today.

The AI memory market, which is the entire bull thesis, is simply not accessible to CXMT at any meaningful scale.

Third, the dollar opportunity is in a completely different product.

The $280–530 billion memory opportunity Micron is selling into over the next two years is almost entirely HBM for data centers, automotive systems, and humanoid robots, none of which CXMT competes in today or realistically can in the near future.

Fourth, Apple is a consumer device customer, not an AI customer.

The memory that goes into a MacBook Air is commodity LPDDR while the memory that goes into an Nvidia GB200 AI cluster is HBM3E.

These products share a name and almost nothing else.

Losing Apple to CXMT on consumer DRAM is the equivalent of a luxury steakhouse losing a lunch sandwich order.

Fifth, the regulatory outcome is far from certain.

The Trump administration has been tightening, not loosening, export controls on Chinese semiconductor companies and even if Apple gets a narrow license, it would likely come with restrictions that limit scale, product type, and duration.

Bears will try to scare you but do not fall for it, long Micron.

Follow me @MelvinInvests for more AI, semis and the next big market themes.

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

@DudeWhoInvests Bad move for Apple.

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

@ThePoliteG $1400 next week maybe!

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

@amitisinvesting Time to be greedy

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

@amitisinvesting Seems like lots of ppl are playing defend. MU might surprise them again.

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

@RKLBMan Space is fun and no ceiling to touch!

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

@amitisinvesting Thanks for doing the market recap!

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

$MARA will need a partner or a deal asap to pump the stock back above $30.

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

How far $RKLB can go tomorrow with the new contract?

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

@TiffanyFong eat more sugar. They will die from diabetes

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

@TiffanyFong Warm compress

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

Elon Musk @elonmusk please make it happen lmao

[DogeDesigner @cb_doge]

Elon Musk meeting Yilong Ma in China would break the internet 😂

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

@elonmusk @unherd @SpencerKlavan He meant Achillia

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

He’s back!!!

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

@ZaherTPI And yes it is insane rally lol

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

@QC_Capitals Ez target, should be less than 3 months

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

@happyinvestor14 Best of luck bro!

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

Thought on CoreWeave after ER tomorrow?
$CRWV $NBIS $IREN

[Toan Diep @ToanDiep]

@TiffanyFong