Crypto Boy

Crypto Enthusiast, PhD Engineering. Contents are Not financial advice.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

March rallies by Bitcoin in midterm years have been fairly short-lived.

In prior midterm years Bitcoin had tops that typically occur in the first week of March.

The one exception was 2022 where Bitcoin swept the early March high in late March.

2014 High: Mar 3rd
2018 High: Mar 5th
2022 High: Mar 2nd (Swept High Mar 28th)
2026 High: ???

[Into The Cryptoverse @ITC_Crypto]

“Eventually the market bottoms…”
📺https://t.co/acksfJ50PP

[Ash Crypto @AshCrypto]

Vitalik sold $0 worth of ETH, when the price was above $4,000.

Vitalik has sold $17,000,000 in $ETH when the price dropped below $2,500.

[Ash Crypto @AshCrypto]

BREAKING :

🇺🇸 Blackrock ETF has sold $117,440,000 in Bitcoin.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Make sure to watch this video.

It talks about the business cycles and how we can better visualize them.

My guess is that the current business cycle comes to an end within 2-3 years, and starts a fresh business cycle where millennials rebuild

[CryptosRus @CryptosR_Us]

🚨 $BTC ON TRACK FOR LONGEST LOSING STREAK IN 7 YEARS

If Bitcoin closes February in the red, it will mark five consecutive down months ; the longest monthly losing streak since the 2018–2019 bear market.

Historically, extended red streaks like this have been followed by strong recovery phases, including prior multi-month rallies.

Despite price pressure, fundamentals haven’t changed:

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold over $100B in assets
• Institutional participation remains strong
• Mid-tier wallets (10–100 BTC) are accumulating
• The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act is advancing in the Senate, with potential passage by April

Adoption is accelerating. Structure is compressing. Volatility doesn’t equal weakness.

[Crypto Boy @ToddMiller40]

@Dogi1313 lol

[Crypto Boy @ToddMiller40]

@itzjoshuajake Good morning

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Bear markets suck.

They don't last forever though.

Better times will come.

Still think October 2026 is a good candidate for a major market low, but open minded to sooner if the meltdown accelerates.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

might need a dubious speculation video on this

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

In 2018, this is the day BTC found a low at just below $6k.

That low more or less held until Q4.

Let's see what BTC does here?

Could we be repeating, just 10x higher?

[Crypto Boy @ToddMiller40]

@AltcoinDaily @RaoulGMI Please ask why his predictions are mostly inaccurate?

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

There are a ton of macro indicators to follow besides the ISM. I tweeted my thoughts about the ISM and had about 10 different "macro guys" tell me why I'm wrong.

Well why don't we talk about other macro indicators that affect crypto?

A lot of people think global M2 is going to expand a lot from here. I say it tops within a few months and starts to drop as the DXY starts to rally. Remember, BTC always tops before M2. In fact last cycle, BTC bottomed shortly after M2 topped.

US interest rates remain above the 2 year yield, which I tend to approximate as the neutral rate. If that is true, then rates are still restrictive and it does not look like we have any immediate rate cuts.

The unemployment rate tends to rise into the summer, which we will likely have to start contending with soon.

Hires, job openings, and quits are all very low.

SPX is near all time highs, making it difficult for the Fed to provide the liquidity needed to really move the crypto markets.

You say QT ended, but so what?
In 2019 QT ended and BTC still dropped for a while.

It's easy to pick a narrative about a single macro indicator and run with it, but the macro is very complicated.

The truth is these guys do not get to have a monopoly on using macro to justify their views.

I can look at all the same data and can come to a different conclusion.

Coming to a different conclusion does not mean I do not take macro into account, which is a lie many of them try to sell.

If anyone of the guys running with the business cycle narrative had called the top in Q4, they would be preaching something completely different right now. They would then feel like they are allowed to interpret the macro in a bearish way. But because they did not, they have to keep the charade going by attacking anyone who disagrees with them.

It's gaslighting to say that anyone who thinks we are in a bear market is ignoring the macro.

I would argue that anyone who called for alt season at any point over the last 4-5 years are in fact the ones who blatantly ignored the macro.

Every one is a genius in a bull market.

[Ash Crypto @AshCrypto]

BREAKING:

🇺🇸 BlackRock has sold $373,800,000 in Bitcoin.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

In my experience, it's dangerous to fade the cyclical nature of BTC in favor of a supercycle.

The macro matters, but it does not always matter on the timeframe many people think.

ISM is bullish for manufacturing stocks, not necessarily crypto. Plenty of examples where BTC does the opposite of ISM, especially in bear market years (2014) and pre-halving years (2019).

After all, the stock market is not the economy (or in this case BTC is not the economy).

DXY (if following 2018) could be bottoming here and if it is, it means global M2 would start falling by summer 2026. Normally BTC tops before global M2 tops. In fact, BTC was nearly bottomed in 2022 when global M2 topped. So M2 is not great for predicting BTC tops. Maybe when M2 tops, it could be used to tell us that BTC may be bottoming soon?

So yes, macro matters, but interpretation of macro also matters. We could be looking at the same data and come to very different conclusions.

The macro has been unfavorable for altcoins for years, and will likely continue to be unfavorable for them for a little while longer.

[Ash Crypto @AshCrypto]

$BTC and $ETH are dumping 🩸

[Austin Hilton @austinahilton]

This is crazy!

Bitcoin is more oversold now than during the Covid crash!

[Nic @puckrin]

Where is the Bitcoin Bottom?

Ever since breaking the 50w MA bull trend in November, Bitcoin's momentum has been to the downside.

2 weeks ago, we also broke through the 100w MA.

Last week we broke through the ETF cost basis & the true market mean.

We're currently trading at Strategy's cost basis & are close the the April lows at $74.4k

If we break below, the next key level is $70k which is just above the previous ATH of $69k.

Breaking below that means we head to a bear market low target.

The area to watch here $55.7k - $58.2k. That's just between the average realised price of all coins & the 200w MA.

That should be the bottom.

NFA.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Another example of the ISM not being the best indicator for predicting BTC price action:

Jan 2019:

ISM: 55.7
BTC: $3700

June 2019:

ISM: 51.3
BTC: $13,900

So in this case the ISM dropped over 6 months and the price of BTC went up 4x.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

*#BTC just dropped below the April 2025 low.*

If it does not bounce soon, this is going to be one hell of a midterm year.

If it can bounce, it gives us a few months and gets us closer to October without so much bad price action (likely the bottom in time).

I feel like the bear narrative has been really strong for a while, and so I would expect a countertrend rally soon so that it gives the bulls some hope for a while.

However, I have learned my lesson in prior cycles, so I do not attempt to trade them. Countertrend rallies can happen, but sometimes they happen when you least expect them, not when everyone expects them.

It makes sense to assume that a sweep of a prior low would offer some relief, as that has been true for BTC even during the bull market.

But in 2014/2018/2022 when BTC fell below the 100W SMA, it was straight to the 200W SMA before any relief occurred.

The time to sell BTC was late last year, not panicking on dumps in the midterm year.

I just try and focus on the bigger picture and the bigger picture is that late Q3/early Q4 will be a better time to move real money back into the market.

Between now and then it is just people trying to make money during difficult times by trying to trade support/resistance levels.