Saylor sold bitcoin for the first time since 2022. 32 coins, basically a rounding error, and the whole digital asset treasury trade flinched anyway. the model was always one bet dressed as a company. That the premium to nav never closes. One real drawdown and tom lee is out here calling a 9b eth loss bottom behavior. The bid was never infinite. $MSTR
So much for patient institutional money. bitcoin:native just snapped under 67k, ten straight sessions of outflows from the spot etfs, nearly 3b gone, second worst week of 2026. The etf was the whole bull case. Sticky demand that doesnt flinch. First real drawdown and the same wrapper that walked them in is the door they sprint out of. a suit doesnt change the hands inside it.
the eu spent two years on mica to lead crypto. july 1 the final deadline lands on a market that already packed up for dubai and singapore. the firms big enough to eat compliance stay. the builders that made europe interesting are gone. cleanest rulebook on earth means nothing once you regulated an empty room.
The part that touches my own book: the EU's most reliable brake on ukraine aid just got voted out of office. budapest dropping its veto helped clear the 106bn loan package for kyiv.
every time an EU defense bottleneck clears, the rearmament thesis gets another leg. long $RHM.NE. not sold on the near term, but the structural bid keeps showing up.
Hungary's new prime minister pledged to change the constitution to remove from office most appointees put in place by his predecessor Viktor Orbán, including the country's president. https://t.co/MZIkBCqt31
I'm a Madrid fan and i'll say it. We got mbappe for free and it still feels overpriced. PSG let him walk and won the thing twice since.
Sometimes the best move is the one you dont make.
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Silný bull market odpouští chyby. Teď jsme v období, kdy spousta nezkušených obchodníků vydělává obrovské peníze, i když dělají ty nejhloupější chyby.
•Kupují akcie, kterým nerozumí
•Naskakují na to, o čem se zrovna mluví
•Ani se nesnaží spočítat valuaci
•Nakupují bez plánu
•Ignorují rizika
Kdo je schopen prostě koupit to co jede, tak byl v této fázi cyklu vítěz. Určitě teď potkáváte spoustu lidí, kteří trefili AI vlnu, dělají pohádkové zhodnocení a všude se s tím chlubí. Mají pocit, že na to přišli, že to bylo jasné a že jsou v tom dobří. Nikdy tuhle tržní euforii nezažili. Přijde jim, že to nikdy neskončí, protože teď už prostě vědí jak na to.
Trh je teď plný těchto lidí. Úplně stejně jako koncem devadesátých let a nebo třeba ve dvacátých letech minulého století (před velkou hospodářskou krizí). Tehdy vznikla ta slavná anekdota o tom, jak čistič bot rozdává investiční doporučení, protože vydělal peníze a má dojem, že tomu rozumí.
Paralela je dnes úplně stejná. Amatéři vydělávají pohádkové peníze a vysvětlují na sociálních sítích, jak se to má dělat. Ve skutečnosti většina z těch lidí za pár let všechno trhu vrátí a dlouhodobě neudrží ani 10% ročně. Nikdy totiž skutečně neměli skill, který je potřeba k dlouhodobému porážení trhu, ale “kdo plaval nahý” se ukáže až po uzavření tržního cyklu.
Kdo se upíná na výsledky od začátku roku nebo třeba za poslední 3-4 roky (extrémní fáze cyklu), tak je za mě úplně mimo. Výsledky na trhu jsou silně varianční. Mají jistou výpovědní hodnotu, ale pouze v dlouhém horizontu (10-20 let).
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Both leaders ran the playbook every blown trader runs. Day 1 conviction, thesis breaks, ego refuses the cut, size up into the loss.
Putin started with a 3 day plan and is on year four.
Trump's deal making timeline keeps slipping. The bill doesn't care who's in office when it lands.
Opinion: Both men gambled on a weak adversary and assumed victory within days. Each is burdening their countries with costs that will persist many years after they have lost power. https://t.co/AGqFNAM4aW
Everything you have seen online about trading is wrong
It is not about changing your trading mentality
You need to change your full approach to trading
You don’t trade based of what you see on a chart
You trade based on what you can extrapolate from years of data and how you can translate that into a trading strategy
Trading is hard
Because on one side you have people trading based on chart patterns, with no education whatsoever,
on the other side there is people telling you technical indicators doesn’t work, and to evaluate companies based on fundamentals,
but then no-cash flow companies IPO at a 1T valuation
The four year cycle for Bitcoin is not dead.
Bitcoin topped when it always topped (to within 1 week when measure from low-to-high), so why can't it bottom near the end of the midterm year, just as it generally has? (1/x)
Half of crypto twitter is still running the 2021 kol playbook. the ones actually breaking through right now never learned it. underrated edge in showing up without the script.
$430m of brent shorts placed 15 mins before trump’s last ceasefire post
CFTC probing $2.1b of suspicious oil shorts tied to these announcements
the only edge left in this trade is being on the right group chat