Tom Callahan

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

@Shaughnessy119 Point two “need an api” lost me there absolutely do not need metered for a company like that. Smashing bs into your narrative.

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

@Henrik_on_HL @corgil And everyone still talking about him this is why it works yall giving him a bigger platform 😭

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

Should have been more bearish. Learning from the algo trading taking the emotion out makes it easier to swap trade bias when you're wrong.

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

Per usual I dont feel as bearish as the TL. Sideways above the cloud for a little bit is cool with me.

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

@NotSoEasyMoney @Chilearmy123 I’m honestly not sure if this is market healing or not.

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

@NotSoEasyMoney How many people even know where to find it 🤣

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

@TurntUpDylan 🎯🎯🎯

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

This algo is slow overall so the flip overnight honestly is kinda wild.

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

@NotSoEasyMoney Sir you have to rug them to be considered you missed that step.

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

All the big accounts are doom BTC posting today. Went back to look when these guys were right last about anything. I just see failed nft projects and podcasts.

People still gonna believe them while they continue to buy. We need real info not from failed nft project owners and failed podcast bozos. I think the real crypto push will come more from the AI side at this point.

CT has no thought or intellectual leaders left with any integrity it’s ripe for someone to come in change the game. Hopefully soon.

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

@NotSoEasyMoney Yeah just like the Q1 posts about cuts😂😂😂

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

@chamath 100% of people with a decent IQ don't believe any statistic from unusual whales, so not super worried.

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

Per usual I dont feel as bearish as the TL. Sideways above the cloud for a little bit is cool with me.

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

TLDR: 67 days of negative funding is a 10 year record, Commercial shorts reducing, miners accumulating. Short term may be bumpy, the bear case is still alive here.

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

Mid Week Macro
Bear case:
-200d SMA at 83.2K is the new wall. BTC tapped it Wednesday, got rejected back under 81K. Desks comparing to March 2022 false breakout. I don't think it's analogous but it's the bear talking point. Need a weekly close above 83K to kill it.
-Cycle debate still alive. Cowen calling 50-55K bottom late 2026 since historicals were 77%+ drawdowns over 500+ days. We did ~52% in ~122 days. Either cycle is broken or we haven't bottomed. I lean broken.
-Iran war is the macro overhang. Dallas Fed modeling WTI peak 94/bbl with headline PCE +1.7pp Q1 annualized. Strait of Hormuz still disrupted. Fed stuck in supply shock no-win.
-Miners: hash rate down 4% YoY, first quarterly drop in 6 years. Production cost sitting right at ~80K so we're literally at the line. Caveat is MPI -1.2 means accumulation not distribution and the AI pivot is strategic not panic.
Bull case:
-67 consecutive days of negative funding per K33. Longest streak in 10 years, last comp was Nov 2022 post FTX. OI rising while funding stays negative = new shorts adding here. Coiled spring. Break 83.2K and the squeeze gets violent.
-ETF flows flipped from hopeful to confirming. 999M inflows May 4-5 alone. 1.63B in first 5 days of May. 6 week streak. 33-35K BTC pulled off spot in 3 weeks. Last week I said rotation was the thing to watch, this week it's confirmed.
-CoT update: commercials reduced shorts significantly. Not net long yet but the start of what I flagged last week. Max short thesis playing out, just slower than people want.
-Miners aren't capitulating, they're accumulating. Reserves at 1.8M BTC (140B), highest since February. 70B+ in AI/HPC contracts signed. AI margins 85% vs 60% mining. Strategic reallocation, not liquidation. Reserve number is what matters.
-BTC above daily cloud with bullish TK cross still in effect. Stop 79K, target 104K. Edge to edge firing on XRP and SOL. ETH still momentum-less below the cloud, ETH/BTC at 0.028 (lowest since 2020). If you want alt exposure it isn't ETH.
-Altseason Index 35-45, BTC.D broke 8 month accumulation at 60.88%. Need weekly close below 59.63 for altseason to actually activate. Not there yet. Selective rotation only. BTC first, large caps next, garbage last.

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

@virtualbacon You draw very crooked lines lol

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

If you think people don’t care about privacy and money you’re a child.

Seen this a few times today as someone who’s worked with high net clients most of my career - they care and so will you if you happen to make real money this isn’t a debate.

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

Mid Week Macro

Bear case:
-ETF cost basis is sitting around 82K which is breakeven for people who bought in through the ETFs. I'd expect sellers to show up around 82-83K short term.

-historical drawdown argument is basically what every bear has been preaching since October. We only drew down ~50% and all previous cycles went ~75%. Timing also bottomed way faster than normal cycles which were 500+ days.

-Miners are selling BTC and hash rate has been slowly going down which is historically bearish. Caveat is they're rotating profits into AI because margins are actually higher there right now. Worth watching but its not pure capitulation.

-CoT data shows commercials are at max short exposure right now which sounds bearish and today it is. Back testing shows max short commercial exposure can be an interesting time to get in. Indicator is bearish today but I believe its showing a bullish setup forming.

-Macro inflation is still a slight headwind even with stocks at ATH. Short term issue for traders mostly. Oil is the variable.

Bull case:
-Negative perp funding right now meaning shorts are paying longs. This move is being fought by retail which is good retail is almost always late/inverse and the CoT back testing confirms it. BTC is trending really low on google trends which historically has been a good thing.

-We tapped the electrical cost of production for miners which has historically been a pretty solid bottom. Miners don't sell below cost basis, they'd rather just shut down. This combined with what I believe is max commercial short exposure is the core of why I'm bullish bias here.

-Sell in May and go away? The data on BTC doesn't really support that if you look at monthly closes over the past few years. Alts are a different story so don't confuse the two.

-BTC broke out of the daily cloud and is holding green on the weekly. This happened fast vs previous cycles both in time and price. Fib targets 91-100K but id expect a retest before anything like that. Spot buys on dips make more sense than chasing right now.

-BTC relative value against SPY, QQQ and Gold looks like its finally bottoming. If rotation starts here thats the confirmation we need for the bull case to stay intact and for alts to have any real shot, BTC first.

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

@shahh I noticed you zoomed in on 3/4 charts instead of showing BTC/gold or any of the other assets.

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

@NotSoEasyMoney @blknoiz06 One of the few good ones left appreciate you.

[Tom Callahan @TomCallahan_]

@JonAguiar @sporadica He went to cash in 2025 so how did he cash the top with new ATH printing last week?