Jae

I been shaking two nickels together for a month, trying to get them to mate

[Jae @TomJrSr]

ty @nba_paint

[Daman Rangoola @damanr]

Last night’s tip in is the 2nd best clip OG has been a part of. This remains #1

[Jae @TomJrSr]

@mattkalish Do you still work at DK btw

[Jae @TomJrSr]

@Novig @BigBuckHunterrr @Flupnolide I love @grpwins

[Jae @TomJrSr]

@ethanrkho @DoctorRazzWSOP @Domahhhh No hate towards @Domahhhh here but by what metric is he the “world’s #1 prediction markets trader”?

[Jae @TomJrSr]

@sharp_fake @sempertrades Dustin rn

[Jae @TomJrSr]

Happy to share that we’ve raised $100m at $1bn, led by @py_research, to put prediction market terminals next to every ATM in America.

Introducing StreetStake, a new distribution layer for prediction markets: The physical world.

Insert loose change, get long your favorite team

[Jae @TomJrSr]

Btw if anyone is interested in betting on the performance of Militia Capital and/or ETF throughout 2026, dm please!

[Jae @TomJrSr]

Struck a nerve I guess

[Jae @TomJrSr]

@orrdavid “Stop playing ego games. Stop trying to make yourself feel smart…. Start trying to make money”

He says as he posts a 9 paragraph tweet projecting downwards on others

“Look at me I have no ego!! You do have an ego, and it’s a huge flaw!”

[Jae @TomJrSr]

@orrdavid And how does one get the action vs the bad players? Do you rlly think regs were/are dumping ev playing hu vs other regs solely for ego reasons? I think your post says more about your own ego and how you view others than it does about anything else

[Jae @TomJrSr]

@orrdavid “Stop playing ego games. Stop trying to make yourself feel smart…. Start trying to make money”

He says as he posts a 9 paragraph tweet projecting downwards on others

“Look at me I have no ego!! You do have an ego, and it’s a huge flaw!”

[Jae @TomJrSr]

Good points. Here is what I think about the election markets.

The given size someone may theoretically need to put up in order to incentivize someone’s death is correlated with the already existing incentives for that person to be murdered. For example, the Portuguese president. If murdered there would likely be tens of, if not hundreds of billions of downstream effects, possibly even a war. To effectively incentivize his death you’d need to provide more incentive than already exists, no?

Looking at smaller politicians, let’s say a small-medium size city mayor, there are likely not enough existing incentives for anyone to want to murder them, so incentivizing their death effectively through election markets isn’t nearly as hard (but this also means there aren’t going to be people really wanting to incentivize the mayors death/people who will have enough money to do so)

Now compare these to the Honnold market. Let’s say someone really really wanted to watch him die, told the internet that they’d be buying $15 million yes @ 99.99, and then bought as soon as he walked up to the building. Other than some jealous climbers or ex girlfriends, there is really no existing incentive to cause the death of Honnold. The entire thing will be live streamed and it presents the opportunity to announce and pay for a live snuff film, legally

[Jae @TomJrSr]

Repeat after me: Prediction markets where you can incentivize someone’s death should not exist

[Jae @TomJrSr]

@0xfoobar Decent rage bait

[Jae @TomJrSr]

And I do get that the Honnold market is largely just pricing weather and his ability got begin the climb, but this is more of a direct death market than most and we should really really be against these (especially on anon crypto platforms). Next thing you know we’ll have on chain bounty hunters

[Jae @TomJrSr]

Death score is just an arbitrary way to think about the logic you’re posing. The difference between your example and a true death market is that you’re not pricing Trump’s death. As a 1c trader there is some chance he doesn’t enact the tariffs, you do not need to cause his death to resolve as a winner. And if you do cause his death, there is still a non zero chance tariffs are enacted. If you kill Alex Honnold, you simply win no.

[Jae @TomJrSr]

@DrewRipsCards naur

[Jae @TomJrSr]

@DavidPrayge Examples? To best of my knowledge, even in their own rules and conditions, polymarket does not state as such. This isn’t a direct example but can look to Brian Armstrong’s earnings call shenanigans for some perspective

[Jae @TomJrSr]

@Ragnarok_1er Let’s assume you’re right and let’s say that across all markets there’s an avg base “Death Incentivization” score of .01

That does not mean we should be fine with markets that have a death score of .5

[Jae @TomJrSr]

@0xfoobar Meh. 3/5 of your examples are not tradable markets. War bonds do not equate to a direct contractual payout on a specific individuals death and neither does Tesla stock. To compare the Honnold market to any of these 5 is examples is extremely disingenuous

[Jae @TomJrSr]

Will be reaching out to all applicants by early next week, hopefully by end of this week

busy busy busy

[Jae @TomJrSr]

Are you a winning bettor but having trouble scaling?

We’re looking for our tenth team member to help us expand. We work with some of the best bettors in the world and make markets on exchanges in the U.S. We're seeking someone who is interested in betting, works hard, and pays attention to detail. Anyone is welcome to reach out for more info.

Title: Trader

Desc: Execute trades as both maker and taker on various sportsbooks and exchanges at scale, using provided infrastructure and liquidity.

-Base salary range: $80,000-$120,000 annually with discretionary bonus/profit share (We are open to other structures which may better align incentives/make sense for an individual)

-Work location: in-office role with at least 65% of time in our Lower Manhattan office

-W-2 Employee

-Two month contract to start with full pay, then scale into a long-term role if it clicks

Please see https://t.co/blU4Yvr7nw for more information