Nostra Thomas

Projections truther. Co-owner @StatlineScout Former @MLB @NBA & @Mojo “One of those analytical model is god never seen dudes actually play before type guy”

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

Imagine thinking there is a better hitting prospect in the world than Munetaka Murakami

[Tom Mussa v2 @tom_mussa_v2]

A SKYSCRAPER OF A HOMERUN FOR MURAKAMI’S 47TH!

His second of the night makes it 6-3 Swallows!

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

Teruaki Sato does not have Munetaka Murakami's lengthy track record of brilliance in NPB, but his combined age '26 and '27 seasons have been all-time with improved K:BB and elite ISOs. All-world max EVs and bat speed.

Expected to be posted this offseason.

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

@EricCrossMLB Imma let you finish but Murakami is having one of the best rookie seasons of all-time!

Interesting to see others remain skeptical of his production and very optimistic projections.

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

Top 5 1B in @StatlineScout model by peak WAR projections.
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.3)
2. Nick Kurtz
3. Munetaka Murakami
4. Ben Rice
5. Bryce Harper (3.8)
https://t.co/rjecGEqagT

[Underdog MLB @UnderdogMLB]

Munetaka Murakami is the first AL player to 20 HR

Most HR by a rookie before June in MLB history

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

@fantasyguru43 @ne_nature @StatlineScout All models project Nola and Castillo to be better than their unsightly ERA. They aren’t this bad.

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

Buy low SP comparing ERA to projected ERA in Oopsy (the @StatlineScout model)

1. Nick Lodolo (-3.44)
2. Garrett Crochet (-3.25)
3. Luis Castillo (-2.63, lost rotation spot)
4. Aaron Nola (-1.97)
5. Jack Flaherty (-1.55)

Others include Eury, Luzardo, Webb, Gilbert, Sheehan

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

Angels' SP Grayson Rodriguez is a juicy buy low target.

@steamerpro and Oopsy (@StatlineScout model) project 3.80 and 3.57 ERA in 16 starts (top ~30-40 SP). He cruised through the minors before he was roughed up in his debut, but stuff / velo looks good.

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

@discussbaseball Jump >> Lin >>> Arnold is the rank in @StatlineScout model. Lin and Arnold don't need to be rostered in vast majority of dynasty leagues and none of them project below a 4 ERA as a starter (for now, Jump is the closest).

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

@BaseballAmerica Lara 📈
https://t.co/OQIsQqvREX

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

⭐️ 3-3.9 WAR club in @StatlineScout (excl. C)

Franklin Arias, S. Walcott, A.J. Ewing, Aidan Miller, Colt Emerson, Henry Bolte, Dax Kilby, C. Bonemer, Jett Williams, Luis Pena, Max Clark, L. De Vries, Luis Lara , Sam Antonacci, Jesus Made, D. Fitz-Gerald, Walker Jenkins, J Lawlar

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

@Haleybertonee Kenji was 30 when he debuted and was still a plus hitter, so he’s not even that bad

Yoshida was 111 wrc+ at age 29 debut. Jung Hoo Lee is a miss but he was still plus

Seems pretty good to me and many hitter pop out performed the expectations

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

All-time, age 27, peak projected wRC+ leaders for NPB/KBO hitters based only on each player's pre-MLB debut NPB/KBO age/stats.

Glad Ohtani pops at no. 1. Too bad Matsui didn't come at a younger age. Sato power is real. Kenji Johjima is the blemish on the model's track record.

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

Mets prospect Chris Suero 📈 checks every box for being overlooked:
Low BABIP ✅
Primary C ✅
Elevated K% ✅
Whack @fangraphs grade ✅
Profiles as 20/20 regular in OF. 3+ WAR projection in @StatlineScout model despite a sub 10% @Fantrax ownership.
https://t.co/IYdY8yIJNj

[Binghamton Rumble Ponies @RumblePoniesBB]

"He rakes in Somerset."

Chris Suero (@Mets No. 14 prospect) leaves the yard for the second time this series! He has 7️⃣ home runs this season.

Binghamton trails by four in the eighth inning.

🎠x #DefendOurHome x @MetsPlayerDev

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

@StatlineScout https://t.co/OQIsQqvREX

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

⭐️ 3-3.9 WAR club in @StatlineScout (excl. C)

Franklin Arias, S. Walcott, A.J. Ewing, Aidan Miller, Colt Emerson, Henry Bolte, Dax Kilby, C. Bonemer, Jett Williams, Luis Pena, Max Clark, L. De Vries, Luis Lara , Sam Antonacci, Jesus Made, D. Fitz-Gerald, Walker Jenkins, J Lawlar

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

4+ WAR club in the @StatlineScout model among rookie-eligible prospect bats:
- Konnor Griffin (4.8)
- Emmanuel Rodriguez (4.1) 👀
- Munetaka Murakami (4.0)
It's cool to whiff a ton if you can do other stuff at an elite level.
https://t.co/WZiTh7O8BG

[Milb Central @milb_central]

Emmanuel Rodriguez to start the year:

.247 AVG | 9 XBH | 18 RBI | .417 OBP

#Twins

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

@StatlineScout https://t.co/RJLPukbFA3

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

4+ WAR club in the @StatlineScout model among rookie-eligible prospect bats:
- Konnor Griffin (4.8)
- Emmanuel Rodriguez (4.1) 👀
- Munetaka Murakami (4.0)
It's cool to whiff a ton if you can do other stuff at an elite level.
https://t.co/WZiTh7O8BG

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

⭐️ 3-3.9 WAR club in @StatlineScout (excl. C)

Franklin Arias, S. Walcott, A.J. Ewing, Aidan Miller, Colt Emerson, Henry Bolte, Dax Kilby, C. Bonemer, Jett Williams, Luis Pena, Max Clark, L. De Vries, Luis Lara , Sam Antonacci, Jesus Made, D. Fitz-Gerald, Walker Jenkins, J Lawlar

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

@RotoWire It could take some time but long-term you're still not high enough on Bolte.
https://t.co/2uolBJPUyq

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

A's OF prospect Henry Bolte has a 40+ grade in @fangraphs but he is 10th among prospect eligible bats by peak projected WAR in the @StatlineScout model.

He is 3rd among prospects in per PA fantasy value fueled by a 600 PA projection of 20 HR and 34 SB at peak. BUY BUY BUY.

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

Zack Gelof has looped back around from a sell high in '23 when he had a 132 wRC+ in '23 to a buy high before managers fall back in love. His 2.9 peak WAR projection in @StatlineScout is good for 139th in pro baseball (includes all prospects). 20/20 fantasy-friendly profile.

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

Zack Gelof is 🔥

But I think his value has PEAKED

Here are a few sell high trade🎯

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

@burress_nathan Took a closer look at Kenji Johjima case and it's not as bad as I thought. He came at age 30, not 27, and had a 105 wrc+ in his first MLB season with the Mariners. So 121 at peak is still too high but much calmer about it!

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

@StatlineScout I would not mind a non catcher list to filter out Duno. Just my $0.02

[Scout the Statline @StatlineScout]

The OOPSY Peak Model top 10 healthy & qualified hitting prospects by WAR!

1. Konnor Griffin 🎥
2. Franklin Arias
3. Rainiel Rodriguez
4. Alfredo Duno
5. A.J. Ewing
6. Colt Emerson
7. Henry Bolte 👀
8. Jett Williams
9. Caleb Bonemer
10. Luis Lara 👀

[Nostra Thomas @TomTrudeau]

@nwcodad Teruaki Sato could be in the Majors next year at 28. Shota Morishita is his 25 year old teammate and has a 113 peak wrc+. The model will be skeptical of young bats until they develop a big enough sample, otherwise Ahn and Kim (KBO) would be higher. Those two have the most upside.