Orbit

Wake up to Reality

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

My outline for #Bitcoin:

2019-2020: Accumulation
2021-2022: Uptrend
2023-2024: $BTC @ $100k
2025-2026: Bear Market
2027-2028: Accumulation
2029-2030: Uptrend
2031-2032: $BTC @ $300k-$500k
2033-2034: Bear market
2035-2037: Accumulation
2038-2039: Uptrend
2040-2042: $BTC @ $1M

[Best Movie Moments 🍿 @BestMovieMom]

State of Grace (1990) unfortunately opened the same week as Goodfellas. Despite critical acclaim, it struggled at the box office because audiences were focused on Scorsese's high-profile mob masterpiece.

[Cheds Trading @BigCheds]

$BTC the move from 35k to 225k is going to be epic

[Bobby A @Bobby_1111888]

While everyone is busy searching for the next big thing, a massive opportunity in $ETH is staring us all right in the face.

Here you have an asset that has been consolidating for four years since its 2021 high and is looking to break out.

Ethereum has yet to expand and enter price discovery this cycle. Many fail to appreciate how powerfully $ETH bull runs can be, and I think a massive bullish phase is on the horizon for the asset.

In my opinion, the smart money is currently rotating out of $BTC and into $ETH at this late stage of the cycle.

The higher-timeframe monthly $ETH chart looks primed to initiate its breakout moment, and very few other crypto assets can compare to Ethereum’s current strength.

If you want an Altaeason, you want to see $ETH repriced to the upside.

When I look at Ethereum’s macro chart, I can’t help but notice the similarities to its 2020 consolidation and breakout moment from both a structural and indicator/oscillator perspective.

If I am right, we are about to witness an incredible end to 2025 and start to 2026 for $ETH. My cycle high target for this blue-chip crypto, which is still trading below its prior cycle high, is between $10,000 and $15,000 per coin.

The remainder of this month can and likely will be choppy and lower levels toward $3,450 to backtest its golden pocket once again, or even $3,000 to backtest its 50WMA, are possible. If I am reading this chart correctly, the fireworks would begin sometime next month.

I leave you with two questions. First, what makes you think that $ETH can’t/won’t go on a 2017-style $BTC run? Second, if we expect a significant move down in $BTC.D, what Altcoin massively outperforming all others would have the greatest effect on the dominance chart dropping?

I will always follow what I see in the higher timeframes, never marry any coin, and always remain unemotional. Cheers ⚒️

[Bobby A @Bobby_1111888]

Everything you need to know. Next month is all I will say. ⚒️

[Cristian Chifoi @ChifoiCristian]

My wife will never understand the level of stress investing in magic internet coins while drinking 20% alcohol Red Porto and laughing at my own cringe jokes about bears being uber gay.

[Cristian Chifoi @ChifoiCristian]

Unpopularer opinion:

Nothing died, it takes longer to play out

As always, crypto people only look inside crypto and don’t study the human mindshare cycles

This says that 2021 was a bull cycle for collectables, also transmuting to NFTs, memes, gaming coins, virtual land, 100 ICOs per day etc.

From the looks of it, TA based, it is a normal accumulation after a big blow off hysteria that took place in 2021 - I know cause I was being a retard back then, taking part in it

So my opinion is that 2028/29 (also a SHMITA cycle like 2021/22) will mark another hysteria on human mindshare trading virtual rocks and other dead meat coins

2024/25 is actually a cycle cleansing, that is also my “halfcoin season” theory playing out since 2023

IF I’m right about this one (will see January 2026 prices) THEN I have to assume the next one will also be valid, which means I am more excited for 2028, and in 2026 I will start deploying a monster cash position into what people will call the “real” death of crypto because they didn’t get the 500x’es they looked for.

Kudos and be prepared.

- Bear Hitler

[Cristian Chifoi @ChifoiCristian]

Not an $ETH guy, at least not this season, I prefered to be 80% BTC since 2022 end - publicly for everyone

But on the ETH chart, if we get 3500$ and stop there, next real targets are 5600-6100$ AND the next one is 8500$ ish

Do what you want with that info

[Cristian Chifoi @ChifoiCristian]

In Bitcoin's cycle, while everyone is eager to make some money inside a 1-2 year window, zooming out and watching the real cycle (not the 4y BTC cycle for ants) unfold is how you make money and also keep it

The REAL cycle is as simple as it can get: time

Price is only the measure you use when time is consumed. So better use this equation always if you want to compound your wealth: time > price

2014/15 and 2021/22 were the last SHMITA years, and the next one is due 2028/29 at a 2550 days interval (cycle)

Now, the only question would be: is 2028 going to be left translated and have a blow off top early, and then the cyclical correction..

OR

Is it going to be more like 2021 with the early top, and then a big distribution for 8-10 months. Time will show the price, but don't forget the INTERMISSION😌

What I am most certain of, is that the altcoin market WILL have a 2021 kind of altseason in 2028/29, but in the next intermission we should have a big clense in this space to make room for those alts that survived, to shine

My plan is already in motion, 20% in cash and building the cash position for the intermission, to be early again for the next SHMITA year

Because you can be wrong about price on the low timeframe, as everyone is, but if you use time, your positioning would serve you well over the long run

And the long run is what brings wealth. The sprints should be rarely used, because the fatigue would wear on you and some day, you would quit and/or give your wealth back to the market.

[Cristian Chifoi @ChifoiCristian]

Again, if you are new here..

The bearish pivot next year is the most important for what comes next $SPX $BTC

[Orbit @Tom__46]

@Techaktien1

[Cristian Chifoi @ChifoiCristian]

Is the Bitcoin 4 year cycle still intact, boss?

There is no Bitcoin 4 year cycle, son🤓

Bitcoin was released into the wild at the end of a secular bear market. So let's talk real cycles, instead of 4y cycles in an echo chamber called crypto

You can be just an investor, or a crypto founder, or a business man, but if you don't follow the real liquidity cycle, you are as good as any fool pissing against the wind.

I keep watching bros charting GOLD or metals, confusing the commodity cycle with stagflations or lost decades or "sEcULaR bEaR fOr cRyPToS bRO"

I shall ease your pain with one chart: SPX/GOLD

Now that the intro is done, I got rid of snobs and "inteligent" and "serious investors" (because I'm so "arrogant") meaning the trad-fi forever poors, which is 90% of this place

We can get down to it...

1. Cycles always repeat, but in a different manner
In the chart bellow you can see that given enough time, the patterns, while different every time, they tend to behave the same

✅first signs of exhaustion: 1929(30); 1966(extended); 2000(01)
✅secular bear: 10-12 years - SPX vs GOLD puts it's bottom
✅resuming upward

2009 was the last bottom. You can see that, while people scream GOLD overperforming right and left, are actually wrong since 2009, and we are nowhere near the secular top which repeats, in a timing manner, and should end somewhere in 2034/35 for the cycle to be complete

2. But why should the cycle complete, bro? And what is the cycle, really?

Little flower of the moon, the cycle is US. Not the United States.. it is us, humans.

We drive the cycles. We are not in The Matrix. We are The Matrix. Every human is a line of code in the Matrix. You cannot escape The Matrix, for you are.. The Matrix!

We are creatures made out of fear and greed, and as long as we live on this planet like this, nothing will ever change. Only if we morph into another form of life, like a humanoid robot after we had a DNA fusion with AI or.. you know.. we all die tragically..

If not, nothing really changes.. ever!

So what does this mean for

3. Bitcoin (and crypto)
Do you think Bitcoin got released into our financial system, at the exact bottom in the markets? At the exact ending of the secular bear market? At the exact 54 year inflation cycle bottom (Dewey and Dakin), after the next 54y cycle started? At the exact bottom level of trust in banks and financial institutions?

It might been a gamble, but it was the perfect timing to launch a gamble like that, that was tried since the 80's, but ups.. failed for the second time..

Wait what.. what do you mean second time, boss?

Little flower.. Henry Ford tried doing the same thing with an "energy coin that would replace gold and stop wars" (google search that) in 1921!

FUCKING 1921!!

Looks like 3rd time works. First two attempts lacked something very vital: the internet era. It was the peak of the internet era that made it work. We could all communicate borderless since the Dot Com bubble.

And you know what would be nice?

a fucking beer.. just gimme a second..

.......
.......
.......

Ahhhhh!

Now, while people in crypto buy up all the stupid shit for the wrong reasons, because getting rich by being stupid will someday bite you in the ass, because the market rewards the boring, patient, somewhat rational sons of bitches

From time to time they throw a bone with a memecoin or a company, BUT the market always takes that money back in the future from guys that got rich fast.

So let the speculation aside and focus on those cryptos (besides Bitcoin) that already have trad-fi attention: de-fi big caps (starting with ETH), ISO coins, the coins who get ready for (or already have) ETFs

And ride this REAL CYCLE to it's exhaustion. Then fuck off to Mars if you really want to.

There is no secular bear market for cryptos
There is no another 2008 could come next year
There is no 4 year cycle in cryptos
There is no this time is different

There will be bumps on the road, because the market needs to shake out the majority of serious smart elegant investoors, and because of that just press follow and ride with me if you want

Not sorry for the swearing. Daddy needed to express some rage.

[Cristian Chifoi @ChifoiCristian]

Bitcoin December 22-29
Ethereum January 5-12

No price, just time. Leaving this here to return to it later.

[Cristian Chifoi @ChifoiCristian]

Hold my beer, I'm working on something✍️

[Oz @AskCryptoWealth]

$eth.. Its happening again but you're too stupid to realise..

[Orbit @Tom__46]

@MitAktien

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

It's been a long time coming, but with everyone's current obsession with the macro I've decided to explore S&P 500 cycles during the past 100 years.

I'm calling it the Quartercent Cycles Theory because of the 25 year long cycles in between pauses.

There have been many times that have been deemed as a recession, but I see the true market pauses as the great depression in the 30's, between 66' and 77' and the 2000's dot-com crash to the 2008 housing market crash.

In between these approximately 9 year pauses are 5 different highs which come at certain intervals after the "dawn" which is the final and most devestating correction that begins the next 25-year run.

They are listed by how many years they come from the dawn:

- 6 year top (red)
- 9 year top (orange)
- 12 year top (yellow)
- 15 year top (green)
- 19 year top (blue)

The dates for these tops are further reinforced with Fibonacci time measures between the dawn and the first top of the pause (approx).

Pause periods have two major tops that come about 7 years apart.

This cycles theory has had incredible accuracy with only a few tops not playing out:

- 51' (continued up no correction)
- 54' (continued up no correction)
- 84' (correction came sooner in 83')

What does this mean for now?

If the cycles theory is correct, we have just hit our 15 year high in December 2024. The good news is that previous 15 year high corrections (57' and 84') only lasted a couple of months. By that time frame it could be over soon. It is typical for corresponding highs to act similarly.

The next topping point to watch out for beyond our current is in late 2028.

The next market pause according to the 25 year cycle would be between 2034 and 2043.

A serious correction seems unlikely for quite a while.

[BitQuant @BitQua]

You know your own story of dipping lower, thinking you've suffered the most. But you don't know the story of those who organize those attacks on you. Sometimes they win, but sometimes they lose. When you hold through the storm, or even worse, buy more, they lose—and they lose big. They sell their huge bags to scare you into selling yours, so they can buy back their own bags, including yours.
But how can you stand the storm and win this battle? The only way is to sell the tops they are artificially pumping. They're pumping those tops to create euphoria. When you don't buy into the euphoria and instead sell, you're prepared for the bottom they'll create at their own cost. And then you buy when you were supposed to sell.
This game is ongoing. You can't stop it, and you can't change it. You can only change your own play.

[Bobby A @Bobby_1111888]

One final piece is missing in the grand scheme of this market cycle, which began in 2022.

Many think it won’t happen because they have yet to taste how explosive this market can be in a relatively short period of time.

Altcoins can and, in my opinion, will erase years' worth of sideways price action in weeks/months.

Remember that markets bore you to death, and euphoric times are short-lived.

Don't confuse a ranging market/asset with a bearish one.

Sentiment is in the gutter as Bitcoin builds support above its 2021 range highs.

Most miss the most explosive phase of the overall cycle because of time, sentiment, patience, and a lack of conviction.

The biggest battle will always be within.

Win.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪 AfD! 🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪