Tony Stock

This is more of a log of my market insights...

Livermore-style pivotal points are my game!

[Francesco @FranVezz]

This is why you NEVER, skip your nightly routine, no matter how good or bad the market is.

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

Michael Saylor's Strategy just fell below $97, and the people calling it panic are missing what actually happened. The company did not break this week. It crossed a line it drew for itself, in writing, ten months ago.

In an August 2025 filing, Strategy published its own capital rulebook as a ladder. Above 4x its Bitcoin net asset value, issue stock aggressively and buy Bitcoin. Between 2.5x and 4x, issue opportunistically. Below 2.5x, issue only to cover debt interest and preferred dividends. And the final rung, in their exact words: below 1x, the company will consider issuing credit to repurchase its own stock.

This week the stock crossed below 1x. The machine did not malfunction. It hit the precise threshold its own playbook defined as the point where everything reverses, and the document predicting it has been sitting on the SEC's servers since last summer.

That line is the whole story. For five years the engine ran one way. Sell stock at a premium to the Bitcoin behind it, use the cash to buy more Bitcoin, watch Bitcoin-per-share climb, let the rising premium justify the next raise. It only works above 1x. Above that line, every share sold makes holders richer in Bitcoin. Below it, the identical move runs in reverse, and every share sold shrinks the Bitcoin behind the ones already out there. The turbine that built the largest corporate Bitcoin stack on earth does not idle below 1x. It spins backward.

Now the squeeze. Strategy carries five layers of preferred stock with a cash dividend bill estimated near $1.7 billion a year. Those holders get paid no matter where Bitcoin trades. The easy way to fund that bill was issuing common stock at a premium, and that door just shut. Cash reserves sit near $1.4 billion, roughly ten months of coverage. That is the real clock, and it is not measured in price. It is measured in months.

So they sold 32 Bitcoin three weeks ago, the first sale since 2022, after years of swearing they never would, to cover a single dividend payment. The amount was trivial. The signal was not. The company that told the world it would never sell sold, because the funding loop it relied on had already stalled.

This is the first genuine stress test of the corporate Bitcoin treasury model at full scale, and the honest read carries both edges. The trap is real. Stalled issuance plus a fixed dividend bill plus a draining reserve is how a leverage structure unwinds, and Peter Schiff has pointed at this exact math for years.

But the escape hatch is real too, and it is written on the same page as the trap. Below 1x, the playbook says issue credit and buy back the cheap stock, which rebuilds Bitcoin-per-share instead of destroying it. A hard Bitcoin rally reopens the equity door overnight. They have survived every prior drawdown by waiting, and ten months of cash buys a lot of waiting.

So can they sustain it? Above 1x, indefinitely. Below 1x, only as long as Bitcoin stays patient and the reserve holds. The model was never a perpetual motion machine. It was always a bet that Bitcoin rises faster than the dividends come due.

The stock did not fall through a floor this week. It fell through the exact trapdoor the company drew on its own blueprint, labeled, and filed, while everyone was busy watching the price.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Strait of Hormuz saga has officially been turned into anime.

Somehow the cartoon captures the tension better than three months of cable news did😂

[Elite Swing Traders @1ChartMaster]

It sure does.

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

https://t.co/lwliIOZEnY

[Ted Zhang @TedHZhang]

Unprecedented breadth thrust and V-shape recovery in $QQQ (up 13 days in a row).

Short-term hyper extended so a pullback would be normal, but it just shows how strong the underlying trend and buyers are.

[The Conservative Alternative @OldeWorldOrder]

Chuck Norris was going strong until the day he died. He literally just released a video for his birthday a week ago, on March 10th.

The final words he left us with?

"Life can bring us hardships, but know there's always light at the end of the tunnel. God is good."

Amen 🙏🏻✝️

[Tony Stock @TonytheStock]

@NYCMayor I smell a disconnect from reality. 🤔

[Tony Stock @TonytheStock]

Druckenmiller always has great wisdom to share!

[Morgan Stanley @MorganStanley]

Watch Hard Lessons, as legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller sits down with Morgan Stanley’s Iliana Bouzali, sharing how he would construct a portfolio if he had to start over today, why contrarianism is overrated, and which stock he regrets selling too early.

[Tony Stock @TonytheStock]

@CFlanders7 Such beautiful high-flyers to study (so many principles to grasp), thanks for sharing!

[Bilaal- BD investing @bdinvestingg]

My portfolio vs Claude every week

[Tony Stock @TonytheStock]

@lesse_jivermore Amazing work!

You capture the psychological development of the period quite well (unusually well), which is an important factor in spotting reflexive trends. Thanks for posting! 🙌

[Tony Stock @TonytheStock]

@lesse_jivermore @IntlSpeculator This is huge!

[Tony Stock @TonytheStock]

@TedHZhang So true!

And that things, good and bad, tend to happen in clusters.

[Tony Stock @TonytheStock]

@RealSimpleAriel The hardest part is knowing when to sell and cover (more so covering, probably). But regardless, you made a great trade! Congratulations! It feels good to participate in history like this, huh? 😉

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

Would not be surprised with everyone waiting for Monday if this $SLV is nothing but market makers having to delta hedge hard into the biggest expiry of the year as we could not pull lower, and shorts taking it to the chin indirectly through it.

Perhaps the entire demand is backward looking or being forced out and thus we casually gap down big on Monday down to 67s or similar.

Just to make sure no one actually catches it.

After all it would be quite particular to see a major asset class top and play out perfectly for longs and shorts to enjoy the ride.

If not though...

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@pmarca Double-digit growth is coming within 12 to 18 months.

If applied intelligence is proxy for economic growth, which it should be, triple-digit is possible in ~5 years.

[Trung Phan @TrungTPhan]

can’t decide if this is bullish or bearish for GOOGL

[Tony Stock @TonytheStock]

@markminervini Instincts, for real top performers, are that inner voice forged by years of learning, risk, and hard-earned pain.
He’s laughing because he hasn’t put in any of that work... He clearly doesn’t have those "instincts" himself yet.

[Tony Stock @TonytheStock]

@JPoco722 This is amazing!