The most powerful beings are invisible
The most powerful humans are not public
The reason ones that stay hidden are the most effective
Darkness is your ally
$XMR
Called the final thrust up โ
Called the uptrend break โ
Called the precipitous decline to unimaginable prices โณ
Those who accumulate crypto here will deeply regret choosing to ignore my analysis.
๐
The pDai engine is basically built. The cross layer path checks out. Collateral goes in on the L2, the aDAI derivative gets moved to L1 through Aave's Portal (mintUnbacked), then settled later with backUnbacked. FD34 holds the biggest aDAI position and already approved 1967 to move it. The governance, the module control, the Reserve scaffolding, all of it is wired and sitting there.
But here's the honest part.
Portal moves value. It doesn't make value. Everything downstream just carries whatever collateral gets added at the source. So the whole thing comes down to one question: what actually gets added on the L2?
If real value goes in there, it flows to L1, backs the aDAI, and the flywheel spins on something real. If what goes in is unbacked, the machine still runs, it just carries an unbacked position across and settles it looking backed. The plumbing can't tell the difference. Neither can we until it happens.
And it's not just "add collateral" either. By NineIron's own words there's still a couple things standing in front of it:
9E6F still controls the pAAVE V2 proxy.
The V2/V3 oracles are still frozen. They have to be reset before three years of interest materializes and the markets reprice. Also hasn't happened.
Then, and only then, the real gate: someone has to actually add real collateral on the L2 to back it.
So it's not idling ready to fire. There's an order to it. 9E6F falls, oracles reset, real value gets added on L2.
The infrastructure is real. The rails are real. The mechanism is real. What's left isn't a mechanism problem anymore, it's a decision. Somebody with the keys has to choose to put real value at the source.
Watch the L2. The tell won't be another proxy upgrade or another governance move, that's all just the engine idling. The tell is real collateral showing up on the L2 to back the derivative that goes to L1. Until that, it's built and waiting. If it happens, that's the moment the thesis stops being a diagram.
The infrastructure seems to be set, now we wait and see if this was all a big ploy to rinse pulsechain or the best Defi stable coin story in history..
Itโs been a pleasure learning and documenting this with you all whether it pegs to a dollar or not.
๐ซก
I've decided it's not my mission in life to gather the bad news of the world and deliver it to you. It's doom scrolling with extra steps. I will focus on building the good of the world. This leads to glory.
With Dark Mode you can't even see the candles if you zoom out to take in the bigger picture
Dark mode people are insane. I do not know how you function in a normal society