Toppie

Love the football

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@SokkahFantasy New accounts closed 😂

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@HFXWanderersFC Artificial turf 🤔🤮

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

The bullish Aussie property thesis now rests heavily on demand continuing to outstrip supply at an aggregate level or in a phrase "high migration"

This is the very public view of multiple prominent property experts.

Are we going to continue to pretend migration isn't a factor?

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@AvidCommentator Migration's a factor — Canada proves it, just not the way the bulls hope. Even record inflows only stalled the real-price fall at ~−21%. Halve the inflows and you get this: −29% and still falling. Inflation has a role to play here too...

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

This charts the recent falls in Sydney housing prices from their peak vs the U.S housing crash and Kiwi house price correction.

It's currently falling faster than the U.S housing crash, but slower than the Kiwi's.

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@MrConvexity @AvidCommentator A real reality check on this. Sydney's ~5% fall is nominal. Strip out inflation and stack it against actual housing crashes:

🇺🇸 US GFC: −39% peak to trough
🇨🇦 Canada: −29% and still falling
🇳🇿 NZ: −28% and still falling

Could be a long way down from here.

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@MaincodeAU Can't log in. Network error. Not a great start.

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@football360au @beINSPORTS_AUS Horrendous first touch, panicked, then grabbed the badge for a club he's been with for two weeks 😂😂.

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@TheKouk In the ABS 2023–24 release, private Education and training value add was $43.9 bn, while Mining was $312.2 bn and Agriculture, forestry and fishing $33.1 bn.
Do you mean spending? Not really GDP comparable...

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@bowtiedstocks 7-figure non-deductible debt mate, that's a house. Deductibility is an investor thing, not a risk gauge. Risk is whether you can service it, not how big the number looks. Crashes don't teach respect for risk, they torch everyone.

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@bowtiedstocks @great_martis Measured moves don't price mortgages. 98% of Aussie loans are variable, set off the cash rate, not the 30Y. And there's no glut coming: we're ~250k dwellings short with a broken build pipeline. Prices are falling, but this is a cyclical correction off record highs.

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@DKThomp How about using an actual watch-list of leading indicators (the YoY margin-debt rollover, financing spreads, the leveraged-ETF net-flow sign) rather than a point forecast?

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@robcornthwaite @FIFAWorldCup To make it about him.

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@DanielGarb @SuperCoachFC Not too far....an hour's drive!

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@The_Kitsman There's almost none of this at the World Cup.

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@gbellseattle @thenewstribune @933KJR Not on shit artificial turf mate. 😕

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@scout_aussie Okon struggled big time against double press from US.
Weak tactics from Popa, second half showed how it could be done.
Brutal choices with Velupilaly and Leckie.
Wee Man Italiano is not an international RWB.
Brave in the sunshine though, let's hope for positive against Paraguay.

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@KarmSumal @KenSimCity Have to solve the homeless problem, I was genuinely shocked by the East Side. It's a waste of human potential and a scourge on this beautiful city.

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@patersonjeff

[Toppie @ToppieOz]

@scout_aussie Are you going to the game?