$SPY $QQQ
CPI Report - 2/12/25 - DOGE impacts
As Musk and Trump spoke today in the oval office, Trump made the point that nearly $1T would be raised from this round alone, Musk agreed.
So what does this mean and how does it play into our CPI report? (effects may lag)
Let's take a look at some of the immediate positive impacts DOGE may have on CPI
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-Reduced Government Spending
Cutting unnecessary spending decreases propped up demand in certain sectors, lowering inflation.
-Public Confidence
Enhanced trust in government efficiency can lower inflation expectations, moderating core inflation.
-Efficient Government Services
Lowering costs through operational efficiencies directly impacts core inflation on services.
-Regulatory Reforms
Speedy deregulation can increase supply, reducing costs in core industries.
-Fraud and Waste Reduction
Immediate savings can stabilize fiscal policy, indirectly affecting core inflation.
-Energy Efficiency
Making government operations more energy-efficient reduces costs that feed into prices of core services.
-Supply Chain Improvements
Streamlining government-related supply issues can increase product availability, lowering core goods inflation.
-Housing Efficiency
Quick action in housing policy can stabilize or reduce shelter costs in the core CPI.
-Coordinated Policy
Efficient fiscal actions can work in tandem with monetary policy, balancing core inflation pressures.
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As we continue into a new age, efficiency, production, and value will mean more than ever.
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$TSLA $MSTR $BTC $TLT $NVDA
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After Sensei disarms Hilda, she admits defeat and awaits her fate....
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🎉 120 Follower Giveaway 🎉
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I created this account a week ago to raise awareness about the importance of data and risk management.
If you like data, markets, and deep-dives,
Checkout the page.
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⚔️Trust Data, Ignore Opinions, Stay Green⚔️
$BTC Volume Alert : 4/4 continuation📢
-In homage to the importance of data & minimizing risk.
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Taking a look at our 3 previous updates.
(All charts below)
1.) We first identified $92,000 as a bullish control zone based on our volume profile and time spent around $92k (confirmed)
2.) Coming into $102,000 we identified our first potential level of contention with enough volume to matter (confirmed)
3.) Overhead supply and outsized volume to the sell side resulted in a failure to regain $102,000 - bringing us into a range we'll call, no mans land.
(Confirmed)
4.) We continue to trade sideways, with 3 failed breakout attempts.
In the short term, losing $96,000 hasn't historically been strong for buyers.
$95,000 and below is where we see begin to see outsized volume on the buy side.
Take away - When trading, the best results come from minimizing risk, not maximizing gains.
The best way we can minimize risk is to follow the data.
⚔️Trust Data, Ignore Opinions, Stay Green⚔️
- $TLT Volume is king 📢
Is government confidence back?
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$TLT Over the past 4.5 years we see -
3+ years of heavy selling
1+ year of strong accumulation
(Volume showing serious interest around $89)
What is TLT and what defines its value.
- Think of $TLT as our gauge for the markets confidence in the governments ability to pay long term debts
Looking back into 2020, if we zoom out further, there was a sharp rally on the back of immediate stimulus.
The concern and heavy selling began when the market realized how reckless the Biden admin was with spending. Harming the governments reputation to pay down long term debt.
Fast forward to Nov 2022, when $Trump announces his candidacy. This is where our key level of $89 comes into play (Marked in green)
Even though TLT rallied a bit and faded, Trumps presidency was very speculative at the time
Finally, taking a look at the last 1.5 years (Marked in white) The sentiment is clear, the demand is there and the most traded level is our $89.
Buying $TLT = Buying confidence in the governments ability to pay down long term debt.
When we consider what $DOGE is doing with Elon Musk at the helm, it becomes a lot easier to see the opportunity here.
$MSTR $BTC $SPY $QQQ
-Follow the data
⚔️Trust Data, Ignore Opinions, Stay Green⚔️
$MSTR Earnings insights and changes 📢
New site - https://t.co/vDBwPcIIGN
Strategy -
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Q4 2024 Adj. EPS $(3.20),
Sales $120.697M Miss $123.248M Estimate
- MicroStrategy purchased roughly $20.4B in bitcoin from Nov 2024 - Jan 2025
- Microstrategy announced a name and brand change, now going by Strategy.
(Strategy is the world's first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company)
- All $BTC purchases were paused headed into earnings.
$GOOGL - We've all seen the earnings report
- Let's compare previous reports to better identify why Google might be trading down -7%
(Keynotes below)
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Est EPS / actual EPS vs prior
2/4/25 ----- $2.04 vs $2.15 BEAT (0.94%)
10/29/24 --- $1.85 vs $2.12 BEAT (14.59%)
07/23/24 --- $1.85 vs $1.89 BEAT (2.16%)
4/25/24 --- $1.51 vs $1.89 BEAT (25.17%)
1/30/24 --- $1.59 bs $1.64 BEAT (3.14%)
Est Rev / Actual Rev vs prior
2/4/25 ---- $96.6B vs $96.47B MISS (0.21%)
10/29/24 -- $86.3B vs 88.2B BEAT ($2.24%)
07/23/24 -- $84.2B vs $84.7B BEAT (0.64%)
4/25/24 --- $78.5B vs $80.5B BEAT (2.48%)
1/30/24 --- $85.2b vs $86.3B BEAT (1.23%)
Take away - While revenue grew $10.1B from the prior year, actual rev fell short of estimates.
So why might this matter in 2025?
As we head further into 2025, as over $3T in debt prepares to mature in the bond market, profitability and cash will become the most important metric for earnings.
All in all - Revenue beats seem to be a key driver in earnings performance for 2025.
$PLTR is a perfect example
( See previous posts for a deep dive into Palantir )
Feel free to re-use any edu content on my page
$PLTR - Earnings 2/3/25 -
Keynotes & Lesser known facts about Palantir
📢Currently trading - $102.77 📢
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✅Sales beat $827m vs $775
✅Eps beat 0.14 vs 0.11
✅U.S. revenue grew 52% YoY
✅Adjusted free cash flow of $517 million
✅GAAP net income of $79 million 📢 (10% margin)
✅$5.2B on the books
-Moving away from the numbers, many are still wondering what Palantir actually does. So let's take a quick look at the basics.
Palantir operates on 2 primary platforms. Gotham and Foundry.
While being powered by 1, Apollo.
-Foundry - Commercial Data analytics / management. In simplest terms - Foundry acts as a digital twin playing out endless scenarios and outcomes, to better execute in real-time. Things like unforeseen inventory shortages and miss-distribution of medical supplies.
-Gotham - Government / Military use, Gotham is best suited for things like - target management, intelligence management, and target identification... Gotham is our cutting edge on the battlefield and is the core of Palantir' value.
-Apollo - The operating system that powers Gotham & Foundry
- Palantir is as valuable as the wests solvency