Totem Analyse

In-depth tech company analyses and portfolio tracking.

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[Totem Analyse @TotemAnalyse]

[ Paypal > A buyback machine ]

PayPal is down 45% in a year. The board just replaced its CEO over execution. And the company is quietly buying back ~15% of itself a year at 6x cash flow.

A value trap, or one of the most asymmetric bet in large-cap tech ?

Let's deep dive 🧵

[Totem Analyse @TotemAnalyse]

@LeaBourseFR Je pense que c'est aussi pour ça que Stripe n'achète pas seul, ils vont avoir 50%/49% avec Advent, fond de Private equity. Ça devrait aider pour la régulation.
Et Paypal malgré son cours de bourse n'est pas dans une situation si catastrophique : https://t.co/IVrMuMIMiN

[Totem Analyse @TotemAnalyse]

[ Paypal > A buyback machine ]

PayPal is down 45% in a year. The board just replaced its CEO over execution. And the company is quietly buying back ~15% of itself a year at 6x cash flow.

A value trap, or one of the most asymmetric bet in large-cap tech ?

Let's deep dive 🧵

[Totem Analyse @TotemAnalyse]

@sonylbb Oui, beaucoup de chance, mais ça faisait partie de la thèse de se dire que les rachats d'actions à ce cours nous permettent d'attendre sereinement avant un catalyste potentiel. Mais si tôt, pas prévu !
Tu as fait une analyse de Adyen quelque part ou une ressource à conseiller ?

[Totem Analyse @TotemAnalyse]

[ Paypal > A buyback machine ]

PayPal is down 45% in a year. The board just replaced its CEO over execution. And the company is quietly buying back ~15% of itself a year at 6x cash flow.

A value trap, or one of the most asymmetric bet in large-cap tech ?

Let's deep dive 🧵

[Totem Analyse @TotemAnalyse]

Big news already : Stripe and Advent (private equity fund) are reported to have submitted a joint offer to buy Paypal !

+35% premarket, since the post 3 weeks ago 🙏🏼

https://t.co/XAwOOrHYHw

[Totem Analyse @TotemAnalyse]

[ Paypal > A buyback machine ]

PayPal is down 45% in a year. The board just replaced its CEO over execution. And the company is quietly buying back ~15% of itself a year at 6x cash flow.

A value trap, or one of the most asymmetric bet in large-cap tech ?

Let's deep dive 🧵

[Totem Analyse @TotemAnalyse]

@sonylbb J'étais passé à côté de ton message, tu penses à Adyen ?

[Totem Analyse @TotemAnalyse]

@MikeFritzell Very good business and they have $1.2B in cash with no debt.
So a current EV of $4.2B.

They started a share buyback program of $400m that would use all cash flow from operations.

That said, Bookings growth is slowing and the company's market penetration is already deep in US/EU

[Totem Analyse @TotemAnalyse]

There is another historical SaaS company that is buying back shares, it's Salesforce.

They even raised debts just for this..

Slack is super well positioned to take advantage of AI (Claude integrations) and Salesforce is now mostly about support (and AI agent are really useful)

[Totem Analyse @TotemAnalyse]

[ Paypal > A buyback machine ]

PayPal is down 45% in a year. The board just replaced its CEO over execution. And the company is quietly buying back ~15% of itself a year at 6x cash flow.

A value trap, or one of the most asymmetric bet in large-cap tech ?

Let's deep dive 🧵

[Totem Analyse @TotemAnalyse]

15 > Verdict

Verdict : deeply asymmetric.

Stays at $41 → the yield lets you compound quietly and accretively.
Growth stabilizes → it re-rates and you exit at a premium.

As long as the core doesn't collapse, time pays you ~18% a year.

[Totem Analyse @TotemAnalyse]

14 > What kills the thesis

What breaks it:

• checkout collapses instead of eroding slowly
• Lores misses the $1.5B savings target
• Market keep seeing it as a value trap
• BNPL's hidden exposure to the credit cycle

At 7x Free Cash Flow we are almost covered.