Nate Does Tox

ER doc, toxicologist, dog dad, hot sauce aficionado

[Nate Does Tox @ToxicCapitalLLC]

@PaleoOnc @DrKentris As an ER doc thank you for saying this. Not only do I not have a question for you when I'm calling (which I was always taught was of paramount importance), it makes me despise my job even more.

[Nightglass @nightglasstrade]

$SPY is 1.4% from its high. It ripped 2.6% off the Sep 16 low into Monday, gave back about a third of that, and on the daily chart it still looks like a normal pullback that held. Fine.

Under the hood it is a different market.

Breadth is the simplest way to see this. Instead of asking "what did the index do," you ask "how many stocks did it." Backward looking, but it tells you who actually showed up.

Here is what it says right now:

• Only 29% of US stocks are above their own 50-day average. It was 72% in April, 67% on Aug 4, 57% a month ago. That is the lowest since the March 30 selloff low.

• We have this reading daily back to 2022. Every other time it was this low, the S&P was at least 3.6% off its high, usually much more. Today it is 1.4% off. The index has not been this close to its high with this few stocks participating at any point since 2022.

• Over the last month the S&P 500 is flat (+0.2%). The equal-weight S&P 500 is down 5.2%. Small caps are down 5.9%.

• 1 in 4 stocks is up over the past month. The typical stock is down 5.6%. About half are 20% or more below their 52-week high.

• 8 of 11 sectors are down on the month. Tech is up 7%, semis 8%.

So the index is being carried by a small group: $META and $AMD closed at their highs of the year today, and $MU, $AAPL, $TSM and $NVDA are all up on the month. Everything else is leaking.

Two ways to read it.

The bullish read: we saw a version of this in April. The index turned up first on a handful of names, and within three weeks the share of stocks above their 50-day went from 25% to 72%. That was the start of an 18% run. Narrow can be the start, not the end.

The cautious read: April's follow-through showed up right away. Within a week, stocks making big up-moves outnumbered big down-moves 2 to 4 to 1. Today that ratio is 0.9.

History since 2022 is split. The index has been within 2% of its high with fewer than 40% of stocks above their 50-day four other times. Twice breadth caught up and the index kept going (June 2024, Nov 2025). Once the index caught down 5% within a month (Sept 2023). Once it went nowhere for a month and fell 7% over the next three (Dec 2024). None of them got as narrow as today.

And the backdrop is different from April. The 10-year yield is at its high of the year, the dollar is at its high of the year, and junk bonds are at their low of the year. Midterms are in November, historically a choppy stretch. And in late August and early September someone bought roughly $35M of $VIX calls that only pay if volatility roughly doubles into Oct and Nov, plus the biggest outright VIX 100-call block on record with VIX under 20.

None of that is a prediction. Breadth does not time anything. It tells you how much weight the leaders are carrying, and right now it is more than at any point since 2022.

What would change the picture: the share above the 50-day gets back above 45% while the index holds. That is April again. If it stays near 30% while the index makes new highs, the leaders are carrying more than they can hold.

[Nate Does Tox @ToxicCapitalLLC]

@Muse @meetgranola @NotionHQ discord and amazon

[Nate Does Tox @ToxicCapitalLLC]

@alexandr_wang amazon connector, ability to make a phone call,]

[Nate Does Tox @ToxicCapitalLLC]

@hpatel @ZentrixHQ i graduated a long time ago but there was an anatomy atlas that I remember downloading on a 2014 windows PC that was easy

[Nate Does Tox @ToxicCapitalLLC]

@jrlevine @Muse Amazon, X

[Nate Does Tox @ToxicCapitalLLC]

@emollick applying AI to the medical research review process could be especially interesting. I would guess that 95+% of med lit that gets published is absolute trash and everyone involved in the process knows it. AI could help cut it down by a ton.

[Nate Does Tox @ToxicCapitalLLC]

@pcstyle53 Sorry I guess I thought this had one but it looks like it doesn’t. If I set up an automated query: “use https://t.co/RdMQ1LwgOw nightly to look for number of posts on subject A” would that actually work

[Nate Does Tox @ToxicCapitalLLC]

@BRoseMDMPH Not sure I follow - hospital systems are throwing huge amounts of money to integrate AI into their EHR already. If you can load up something ready made to integrate with Epic.. why wouldn’t you be willing to pay for it? Privacy and security definitely an issue

[Nate Does Tox @ToxicCapitalLLC]

@So8res Are you a little freaked out that anthropics consumer frontier model is one letter different from Sable

[Nate Does Tox @ToxicCapitalLLC]

label posts even more hate in the group chat it's worth the subscription by itself. Join us

[Labeltrader @labeltrader1122]

This app is dead, no real traders left. I Post free plays, some how no one can afford subscription even tho they all did well. I thought Trump was going to make you guys rich. It’s sad people hear only know how to “trade” with leaps. Took my son to the hospital and still did well, while others would have took time off. If you need a real room with traders who don’t fold under stress join us or have fun in the corporate world.

[Nightglass @nightglasstrade]

This is the best free market resource you’ll see all week.

Introducing the Nightglass Weekly Market Map — a clear view of institutional positioning, key options levels, and the market dynamics shaping the week ahead.

Built for traders who want to see where institutions are focused, which sectors and themes are gaining strength, and the leaders and technical levels worth watching.

Read this week’s report:
https://t.co/sykmYVs8l0

[Nate Does Tox @ToxicCapitalLLC]

I too built a Botffice. I don't know what it does but it has an office with little people in it and they send me 1 email every morning! I think the blue and orange analysts are on the down low btw

[Aleiah @AleiahLock]

I BUILT MY OWN OFFICE AND GROK BOT IS THE BOSS

Just look at what my workplace/office looks like.

Before, AI just waited for me to open a chat and type a prompt.

Now I run a real digital office: persistent agents with clear roles, a shared cloud computer, browser, and terminal. They keep working 24/7 even when my laptop is closed.

And the best part - it’s easy.

Download the app → sign in → create the “Chief” → give them job titles (just like briefing new hires) → show a task once → connect Telegram.

> No experience needed.
> No VPS.
> No coding.
> Everything is straightforward.

I just drop a goal in Telegram and the bots break it down, delegate, and deliver. I only make the decisions.

Grok Bot isn’t a chatbot. It’s a team you can actually build in one evening - even if you’ve never created agents before.

[Nate Does Tox @ToxicCapitalLLC]

@nightglasstrade Why would someone buy and sell calls at the same strike and expiry date?

[Nate Does Tox @ToxicCapitalLLC]

BTW, there is a 7 day free trial to the discord+nightglass suite here https://t.co/3XG93n0XRk

[Nate Does Tox @ToxicCapitalLLC]

... ok it was not just me

[Nate Does Tox @ToxicCapitalLLC]

... ok it was not just me

[Nightglass @nightglasstrade]

Btw $SNDK is up 55% since that started

[Nightglass @nightglasstrade]

Access Nightglass https://t.co/yuh8jJL9px

[Nate Does Tox @ToxicCapitalLLC]

The bullish positioning is pretty impressive highlighted here by @nightglasstrade. As someone who traded $INTC in the early summer and lost despite the chart looking good from a TA perspective I am encouraged by this

[Nightglass @nightglasstrade]

$INTC has frustrated just about every retail trader.

But while retail capitulates into weakness, institutions often start positioning for the next move.

The Nightglass chart makes the timing clear: bullish institutional flow returned near the July lows—and it came in with size.

On July 29, into the INTC lows, our models flagged two notable September positions:

$1.5M sold in the $65 puts, signaling a willingness to own or support the name materially lower.

$2.6M in $100 calls, identified as a floor trade—bullish exposure established near the lows.

That was not isolated activity. Looking at the flow feed, INTC bulls went quiet during the selloff, then reappeared as price approached the lows. Since then, bullish positioning has remained active, including a $1.3M September $135 call buy on August 13.

Retail tends to react to the candle in front of them.

Institutions trade levels, positioning, time horizon, liquidity, and asymmetric risk/reward.

That does not guarantee INTC goes straight up. But it explains why tracking institutional behavior matters: the most informative positioning can show up when sentiment is at its worst—not after the move has already become obvious.

Nightglass is built to surface those moments, turn complex flow into context, and help you trade with more confidence.