Keshav | Equity & Options

Student of the markets from 2018 | NISM Certified In 3 Domains | Currently strategizing and trading in SPX Options | Prop Trader | DM for a Portfolio Analysis

[Keshav | Equity & Options @TradeThatFlow]

Hi Everyone!

I'm Keshav. Derivatives Analyst at a trading firm.

What I do : I'm on a desk trading US options for clients. Building the strategies, picking strikes and expiries, sizing positions and deciding when to cut or roll. Every trade goes on a running P&L so we know which setups actually pay and which don't. Outside the US book, I'm on Nifty and stock options looking for setups worth trading alongside my usual swing trading which I have been doing for years.

How I got here : Commerce grad. Started as a Junior Finance Associate, doing options trading and equity research for over a year. Top performer in a simulated trading program with 35%+ returns in 4 months on BSE500 stocks. Moved from a data analyst role into derivatives after that. Cleared NISM VIII (92.5), XV and XVI along the way.

Where I want to go : build my own systematic options strategies. And help retail traders here trade derivatives with proper risk management instead of gambling on expiry or at least get profitable with swing trading.

What you'll find here :
Nifty, Sensex and stock levels I'm watching, and the setups I like
Options explained in plain words. Expiry, option selling, expected moves, dealer flows
Risk and discipline. Stop losses, averaging down, journaling, the rules I follow after a bad day
How the US markets, Fed, crude, gold and Bitcoin feed into Indian markets
IPO calls, including the ones I'm avoiding

If that's your kind of feed, follow along. Let's see where this goes.

[As Found @AsFoundX]

🚨 ELON MUSK WARNS:

“At most, there are about 3 years left where you can still make money selling your work.

After that, AI will do the majority of the tasks, and paying someone for their time stops making sense.

The deal of the last 200 years — your time in exchange for a salary — is ending.

And it is going to move more money between hands than anything in modern history.”

[Keshav | Equity & Options @TradeThatFlow]

@TicTocTick This was not the typical work for most employees btw/

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US households now own ~42% of the US equity market, their highest proportion since the late 1990s.

This proportion has risen +7 percentage points since 2020.

Foreign investors are the 2nd-largest owners, accounting for 18%, up from 16% in 2020.

Mutual funds rank 3rd, at 15%, down from 23% in 2020.

Meanwhile, ETF ownership has increased +3 percentage points over the last 6 years, to 10%, its highest on record.

By comparison, pension and retirement funds own 8% of the market, while hedge funds own just 1%.

Household demand for stocks is stronger than ever.

[Keshav | Equity & Options @TradeThatFlow]

5 years is a stretch. They will do most of the work in max 2-3 years. It's not as much for them considering the return they can get if they are allowed to do so with proper incentives.

[Gems @gemsofbabus_]

Replace Indian municipalities with private companies that are held accountable for results and see Indian Cities change within 5 years.

[Keshav | Equity & Options @TradeThatFlow]

@connectgurmeet How will FDs help in this case? Aren't they as problematic as cash in bank in case of a cyber security failure?

[Ronit Pereira @CAronitpereira]

In 2013, Morgan Stanley’s Ruchir Sharma identified Turkey and Nigeria as potential breakout economies. Both bets, however, failed to deliver.

Now, many Indian investors have burned their fingers investing in Brazil…

Retail investors should exercise extreme caution when investing in overseas markets unless they possess the skill and expertise of the next George Soros.

I remember a quote from late Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on why he invested only in Indian markets - “When the food at home is good, why eat outside.”

[Sharan Hegde @financewsharan]

American tech companies have made billions by employing cheap labour in India.

But now that AI is entering the picture, it feels like we're being left behind.

Microsoft is offering voluntary exits to 60,000 employees globally, including eligible employees in India, despite making record profits.

And I'm worried about what this could mean for India's real estate market, especially Bangalore.

Property prices have shot up on the back of high-paying IT jobs.

In 2022, just 11% of homes sold in Bangalore cost over ₹1.5 crore.
Today, that figure is 62%.

A lot of young professionals have taken on massive home loans assuming their salaries will keep growing.

But what happens when the very companies that made these homes affordable start cutting jobs?

Buying a home on a loan just isn’t worth it in this economy.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Only two of the Mag 7 stocks are outperforming the market this year:

Apple and Nvidia.

What do they have in common?

They rank #1 and #2 in free cash flow.

Investors are rewarding cash generation and growing more skeptical of massive AI spending with uncertain future returns.

[Keshav | Equity & Options @TradeThatFlow]

@IndianTechGuide Black mirror me sab aa chuka pehle hi. Ab tech vo sb krega dhire dhire although most episodes are a stretch. Ads ads everywhere, not a place to genuinely see.

[Keshav | Equity & Options @TradeThatFlow]

One of my distant relatives has a major problem. She knows her father left Reliance shares worth a few lakhs now in her name two decades back. She left the shares with her brother when she got married but now her brother is not willing to give her the physical shares unless she shares some portion of it with him.

What are her options in this case other than filing an FIR as she doesn't want to do that?

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

US stocks tend to rally following Midterm elections:

The S&P 500 has returned +17.2% on average in the year following Midterm elections since 1950, the strongest return of any year in the Presidential cycle.

The index has finished higher in 17 of the 19 post-Midterm years during this period.

This is also nearly quadruple the +4.6% average return recorded during midterm years, when the index finished higher in 11 of 19 years.

By comparison, the S&P 500 has returned +8.1% on average in Year 4 of the Presidential cycle, or during Presidential election years, ending higher in 16 of 19 years.

In Q4 of Midterm years, the S&P 500 has delivered an average return of +6.6% since 1950, the strongest quarterly return of the Presidential cycle.

History suggests US equities will extend their rally after Midterm elections.

[Saurabh Mhase | Niftybuddy @niftybuddy]

Tax bhare Indians,
All benefits going to NRIs 🤪

FCNR now LTCG !

[Keshav | Equity & Options @TradeThatFlow]

The latest GMP in Jio Platforms Limited IPO is 23.73%. Where do you think it will list? I feel it will list at around 1350 and might fall from there hence I will book in 2/4 accounts in pre market. (Not a recommendation)

[Keshav | Equity & Options @TradeThatFlow]

@palakshahjourno We really need to move away from Crude as much and as fast as we can.

[Keshav | Equity & Options @TradeThatFlow]

@CodeWithAmann

[Keshav | Equity & Options @TradeThatFlow]

@palakshahjourno For NRIs only? 😕

[Keshav | Equity & Options @TradeThatFlow]

@IndianTechGuide Need this in North West Delhi.

[Keshav | Equity & Options @TradeThatFlow]

@CMODelhi @PMOIndia @narendramodi @HMOIndia @AmitShah Workers left**

[Keshav | Equity & Options @TradeThatFlow]

Please do something about the dusty places due to construction activity. Reducing dust will help us a lot in the long term. If the pavements are made completely, that will help. I had seen a new pavement being built near my house just a few weeks back. It is already all dusty as the works left just 4-5% part of it incomplete. If they would've completed the work properly, that would have been beautiful + non dusty.

[Keshav | Equity & Options @TradeThatFlow]

Such a sad move if this benefit is not given to the retailers sitting in India who have been doing SIPs and protecting the market for 2-3 years. You cannot only do appeasement of those who have left. Leave something on the table for those who are working, investing and spending in the nation.

[RedboxGlobal India @REDBOXINDIA]

RBI PROPOSES LTCG TAX CUT/EXEMPTION FOR NRIs TO BOOST FII, FDI AND CURB DOLLAR OUTFLOWS