I've traded since 1974. I've had 4 losing years. There are some conclusions I've come to understand as absolute truths (absolute because the apply to everyone, no exceptions).
I have no control over the outcome of my trades. Zero. Anyone who tells you different is a untrustworthy liar. I could use a harsher description but I won't.
The only thing I can control are the orders I place - market, size, order type, price. That's it. Those are the four things I can control. Only these things. Nothing else.
I have no say if my next trade will win or lose. I have no say if my next five trades are winners. I have no say if 15 of my next 20 trades are losers.
A trader can only control those things that are controllable. What a market will do is NOT controllable.
What my next trade will do is not controllable.
I repeat, anybody on social media who tell you they know what a market will do or that they know they will be profitable in X of the next Y trades is a flat out liar who you should immediately un-follow.
But many of you will never figure out these truths. And you will waste years of your live trying to be a trader without success. Why, because you will lack the level of deep introspection needed to succeed. You will be a liar to yourself.
Of course a small percent of people who want to pursue trading as a profitable career will succeed. My hat is off to you. I respect all traders who wade through enough mud to make it to dry land.
I do not mean to be discouraging. Not at all. I just mean to tell it like it is -- whether you want to believe me or not is up to you.
Market, order type, size price. That's it. Those are the only things you can control.
cc: @PeterLBrandt