Paul

Mathematician turns Day-Trader ....

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Europe is releasing its Tech Sovereignty Package, today June 3rd.

This includes, CHIPS ACT 2.0, which is expected to prioritize photonics.

Both $XFAB and $SIVE are highlighted in the Industry Policy Blueprints, which guides EU legislation.

This proposes sovereign backing with €30–500 million financing facilities per company and revenue demand incentivizes.

To bridge early European companies to volume production.

I personally expect my two thesis ideas to be large beneficiaries:

- $XFAB, given they're leading Europe's SiPH value chain, with Nokia and Nvidia evaluating them for photonics HVM.

- and $SIVE as Europe's leader for lasers in AI datacenters, scaling lasers to mass production in 2027.

More details will be announced today, but this is a structural tailwind to photonics critical to Western and especially EU supply chains.

[Paul @TraderP24]

@jasonschips @aleabitoreddit

[Paul @TraderP24]

@hardmaru @aleabitoreddit do you have any opinion on that ?

[Irrational Analysis @insane_analyst]

Made $1.5K profit with insane risk lol.

[Paul @TraderP24]

@zephyr_z9 @grok can you help me understand/find the easter egg ?

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

I want to explain the most misunderstood factor for Hyperliquid. If what I lay out is going to happen, the price will easily go to $350 this year. 🧵

Right now, everyone is overly fixated on the launch of the ETFs. The Hyperliquid ETFs are a drop in the bucket for the wall of capital that is going to hit the market

This is very straightforward if you understand global interest rates, fx, and the supply of money in the system. Most people have ZERO clue about how these markets function because they have never traded G7 rates. People think they understand liquidity because they traded Bitcoin during a dollar devaluation narrative but when asked about the most important input into macro liquidity, interest rates, they have no clue.

It is IMPOSSIBLE to have a view on macro liquidity and money in the system without understanding interest rates. These are two sides to the same coin.

Let me lay out this thesis very simply: 👇

Interest rates are all about the price you pay for money in the system. FX markets are the flip side of the coin, which is denominated the actual currency you are borrowing relative to other currencies and their respective interest rates.

Why does this matter for Hyperliquid? Because the largest markets in the world are all about interest rates and FX. Bitcoin and crypto are a drop in the bucket for large players who are managing massive balance sheets. If Hyperliquid can provide enough value via liquidity and low-cost leverage, then the largest players in the world will start moving more capital onto the platform to transact in the most important markets, interest rates, and FX.

Simply put, if you have enough liquidity on your platform, the price you pay for leverage can be LOWER than what you might pay somewhere else. Simple example: If you need a mortgage for your house, you are going to try to get the best rate possible. This is you trying to find the "cheapest leverage" possible in the system. If someone offers you a lower interest rate, with no trade offs, people will take it. Many brokerage accounts compete with each other on the margin rates you have to pay in order to use the firms margin.

The same dynamic is true for Hyperliquid. If they can provide attractive margin rates (or what we can funding rates on Hyperliquid), then this is the real value proposition for Hyperliquid. While everyone is focused on ETF flows, you want to ask what are the drivers of value that would catalyze the flows of the largest players to begin using Hyperliquid every single day.

Clearly, the regulatory constraint is holding capital back like a dam holding back water that wants to pour into a new market. But the most important thing to understand is that if the funding rates for interest rates and FX are low enough on Hyperliquid, this begins to attract capital from the largest players in the world. This especially attracts capital from the entire Eurodollar market that is constantly trying to hedge the surplus of dollar liquidity that is in the system due to the dollars reserve currency status and the historic level of trade the US has conducted which has pushed an unprecedented level of dollars through the entire system.

This flow mechanism connected to the larger macro picture is WHY I am so bullish on Hyperliquid. Notice that functionally, no one else has talked about this. They think this is just the regular "crypto cycle" where you buy momentum and fade the price once everyone starts talking about it on the timeline.

The place we are at with Hyperliquid is actually taking advantage of the biggest blind spots for both people in crypto and people in traditional markets. Crypto people have been conditioned to just think in terms of pump and dumps instead of value creation and flow mechanics in the global interest rate complex. Traditional finance people have functionally dismissed crypto as something that is worthless because no one has really provided true value that has lasted.

This is why I wrote this article on the blindspot that existed earlier this year, before Hyperliquid made its massive YTD rally: https://t.co/7E8bMaWOP6

There is a reason that no one is talking about these mechanics. The crypto influencers or VC establishments won't talk about it because they didnt get to invest in Hyperliquid before it launched or get a crypto allocation to schill. On the flip side, the largest institutions won't talk about Hyperliquid because they dont want to draw attention to a market that they havent established a dominant positioning in yet.

"Do you mean to tell me you've finally established a position, so you can price mine?" - The Big Short

My job is a trader. I get paid to hold risk and I have established a position in $PURR which is the largest Hyperliquid treasury company and the only treasury company in the world with a positive P&L right now. It is up over 140% since I originally published the view (see my pinned tweet). But we have only just begun to price what is possible for Hyperliquid and what is possible for $PURR.

Once you realize that Hyperliquid sits in a massive gap in the tradfi and crypto space, then you will realize why $PURR sits as the bridge to BOTH of these.

I continue to hold my $PURR position and it is my strong conviction that Hyperliquid will have a significant rally beyond anyone's expectations and $PURR will be the direct beneficiary of this in addition to adding additional shareholder value on top of HYPE returns.

There are several things that you need to know in order to navigate these changes in Hyperliquid:
1) Understand that we are in a credit cycle melt up that in its very nature is currently sowing the seeds of its own demise. None of this will end well given the amount of liquidity that is in the system but first we are melting up MUCH MUCH HIGHER.
2) Hyperliquid underlying drivers in its value proposition that could catalyze capital aggressively moving onto the platform to access cheap leverage.
3) All of the signals for positioning in global risk assets, interest rates, Hyperliquid, and $PURR.

I will be providing an entire playbook for #1-3 in a livestream tomorrow at 8:30am MST. You will walk away with a playbook for the credit cycle, a model with the code included on mapping funding rates on Hyperliquid, and Tradingview models for monitoring the positioning signals. This will be 100% free for everyone who is a subscriber here. I will send out the links tonight and resend them tomorrow morning so no one misses it: https://t.co/rpJr1XL6FO

Below, I will link the most important tweets and videos I have done thus far that you should review before the livestream tomorrow

Welcome to global macro

HYPERLIQUID

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

UPDATED FIB LEVELS FOR POPULAR STOCKS

Space
• $RKLB $96
• $ASTS $89
• $PL $30
• $BKSY $34

Quantum
• $IONQ $48
• $RGTI $25
• $QBTS $26
• $INFQ $13

Drones
• $ONDS $6
• $AVAV $170
• $KTOS $52
• $UMAC $15

Nuclear
• $OKLO $59
• $UUUU $14
• $GEV $906
• $LEU $168

Photonics
• $AAOI $150
• $LITE $698
• $COHR $283
• $AEHR $71

CPU Bottleneck
• $AMD $339
• $INTC $89
• $ARM $233
• $AMKR $56

AI Utilities
• $IREN $51
• $NBIS $158
• $CIFR $17
• $CRWV $103

AI Power
• $EOSE $7
• $BE $206
• $NVTS $20
• $VRT $273

AI Hardware
• $NVDA $196
• $TSM $333
• $ASML $1,283
• $MU $541

AI Applications
• $PLTR $132
• $NOW $99
• $CRWD $548
• $ZETA $17

AI Connectivity
• $AVGO $360
• $ALAB $228
• $CRDO $158
• $MRVL $145

Physical AI
• $TSLA $413
• $AMZN $247
• $GOOGL $314
• $ISRG $435

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

Interconnects ;)

[Ramin Nasibov @RaminNasibov]

My favorite Pokémon is Psyduck. He can't do anything and always has a headache.

[Ramin Nasibov @RaminNasibov]

When your favorite song comes on but there are too many people around.

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

Japanese industrial automation & humanoid supply chain players have done really well over the last 45 days
Harmonic Drive, DMG Mori, Tsugami, Nabtesco, Yaskawa, FANUC
everything up 60%-100%

[Neon68 @Neon68]

$POET pre-market 18$!! We will see 20$ soon

[Paul @TraderP24]

@aleabitoreddit What about $HIMX ?

[Sun Liao @sunxliao]

The humanoid robotics theme is an emerging trade I see right now and almost nobody is positioned for it correctly IMO. 🤖📈

Pay attention... most people only really know $TSLA.

Optimus is real and Tesla is the demand creator that legitimizes the entire sector, but the second order trade is interesting too.

Here's the chain... simplified drastically...

Every humanoid robot needs eyes. Lidar and vision is the layer that lets a robot actually understand the world it is walking through. $OUST is the cleanest public lidar pure play, $MBLY is the vision and ADAS leader pivoting hard into robotics, $AMBA is the edge AI vision chip that processes everything in real time, and $AEVA, $ARBE, $CGNX round out the perception layer.

Every humanoid needs precision motion. Harmonic drives, actuators, and motion control are the unsexy compounders most retail will skip right over. $VPG is the precision sensor and load cell pure play, $NOVT is motion control built specifically for robotics, $ALNT is precision motion components, and $RR is the optical sensor name that quietly shows up everywhere.

Every humanoid needs a brain. The compute that runs on board has to be cheap, low power, and reliable. $LSCC is the low power FPGA that ends up inside countless edge devices, $INDI is the automotive and robotics semi nobody has on their radar yet, $AMBQ is the analog compute play, and $MRAM is the next gen memory built for exactly these workloads.

Every humanoid needs a logistics use case. The first commercial deployments are not going to be in homes, they are going to be in warehouses. $SYM is the automated warehouse pure play, $ZBRA owns enterprise scanning and tracking, $SERV is sidewalk delivery robotics that doubles as data collection, and $KITT is the autonomous platform play.

Every humanoid needs an industrial pedigree. The companies that already build robots for factories will be the ones supplying components and software to the humanoid OEMs. $ISRG is the surgical robotics gold standard, $KLIC is the precision assembly tooling, $HG is the heavy machinery name pivoting into robotics, and $BOT is the basket ETF if you want broad exposure in one click.

And on the speculative high beta end... $ATOM is robotic software with real adoption, $XPEV has its own humanoid program coming, $AUR is autonomous trucking which is the same playbook applied to the road, and $NEO is the small cap optionality play.

Pick the chokepoints.

Own the picks and shovels... then wait.

Will share more ideas to followers soon. NFA.

[Value Investigator @value_invest12]

Alibaba now with $24 billion revenue run rate in its cloud business, growing 38% year over year. Further acceleration of growth.

$Baba market cap now at ~10x next 12 month sales of its cloud business. Early days in China.

Get the ecommerce behemoth for free.

[Con @__Con_]

Here are my 3 early-stage robotics bets:

1) $VPG

2) $OUST

3) $AMBA

Why?

Because in a robotics age, we need 3 main things (which they hold):

$VPG is the leader in precision sensors (strain gauges, force/torque/load cells).

$OUST is the leader in digital LiDAR maker for 3D sensing and perception.

$AMBA is designs low-power edge AI vision SoCs (system-on-chips) for computer vision, video processing, and AI inference.

All which, I think, will be the most important parts in human robots (and robotics in general).

I'm personally waiting for a buying opportunity after this huge breakout on $VPG, as I think we are due for a short-term pullback.

$OUST and $AMBA on the other hand both seem to be in good areas to start dcaing in here: they both have been consolidating and haven't broken out just yet.

As robotics will be the future, having some of your portfolio in these stocks is worth it, in my opinion (as a long-term hold).

- Con

[Paradis Labs @ParadisLabs]

Seems like the two most popular names were:

1. $PENG
2. $OUST

I'll start doing research into both.

I already have high-level notes for $OUST, but would prefer to beef it out a bit before talking about them.

Note: I currently don't have a position in either.

[Just Another Pod Guy @TMTLongShort]

Random hungover dumb thought of the day:

The most lucrative untapped consumer market right now is a line of shoes that helps men lie about their height to get laid.

Before the angry comments start flooding in I am 6” and don’t date American women. I just hate seeing clear untapped market needs every time I go out to party.

Height-fraud is the logical next step after Reta solves body fat, hair loss is close to being solved, the female population has become height obsessed and Gen Z in general is clearly becoming hyper aware of the benefits of hypergamy + looksmaxxing.

There is currently one brand on Amazon that sells this kind of thing (Calto) at crazy markups when there should be fifty.

You can spam instagram and TikTok and sellout overnight.

And I’m not talking about just inserting a sole to add an inch I’m talking about deconstructing the shoe to make something that adds four inches without sacrificing comfort or being obvious. Which is much more easily done for men.

Someone go make a lot of money making men’s heels or whatever 🫡

[peepeepoopoo @DeepDishEnjoyer]

this would go so hard as a political podcast opening theme