VULTURE TRADER

The Tape Tells All 💹 Swing and positional trader

[VULTURE TRADER @TraderVulture]

That’s the point - you need to prepare, not predict.

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

How Twitter X gets it all wrong

On X it is a big deal when someone makes a BIG call - a major turning point in stock, a 30% move in a crypto coin, a $1 move in Beans

But which person, A or B, did the best job?

Trader A correctly called for a low in some crypto - but personally got chopped up in the predicted move

Trader B called for a top that was totally wrong, but managed through risk control to break-even on his/her trade

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

Self quote of the day:
Love stops... not stocks.

[VULTURE TRADER @TraderVulture]

A single Black Swan can reduce an entire trading career to dust.

Never forget: capital preservation comes first.

Stay in the game.

[VULTURE TRADER @TraderVulture]

The cost of production does not determine the price of a commodity, just as value, fundamentals, or news do not determine the price of a stock.
There is no mystical force called “intrinsic value” setting the price.

Price is where supply meets demand.

[VULTURE TRADER @TraderVulture]

Hello, traders — please stop explaining why a stock boomed or doomed.

You can’t.

The explanation usually comes after the move, not before it. 😌
@nntaleb

( This thought was written by Pierre-Daniel Huet in 1690 — more than three centuries ago.)

[VULTURE TRADER @TraderVulture]

#SOLARINDS

There���s something deeply satisfying about a chart where everything just falls into place.

Trend → structure → momentum → breakout.

Absolutely stunning. 💹

[VULTURE TRADER @TraderVulture]

@meet_shoryak If I had to summarise your book collection in a few words, I’d say: you’re moving in the direction of an empirical skeptic.

A Nassim Taleb fan, can i say that? 😄

[VULTURE TRADER @TraderVulture]

This principle is exactly why you are advised not to ride motorcycles. The probability of a fatal accident on any single ride may be small, but the consequence is irreversible.

A small probability means little when the downside is ruin.

[VULTURE TRADER @TraderVulture]

In trading terms, the win rate is far less consequential than the risk-to-reward ratio. What matters is not how often you are right, but how much you gain when right relative to how much you lose when wrong.

[VULTURE TRADER @TraderVulture]

But this may simply be a case of being fooled by randomness. If a strategy carries even a small, probability of ruin, then given enough time and repeated exposure, that risk will eventually catch up with you. Survival so far is not evidence of robustness.
@nntaleb

[VULTURE TRADER @TraderVulture]

I see a barbell here: confine the possibility of ruin to a small, predefined portion of your wealth, while keeping the overwhelming majority insulated from ruin.
@jackschwager @nntaleb #market_wizards

[VULTURE TRADER @TraderVulture]

This is my trading philosophy.
#trading

[VULTURE TRADER @TraderVulture]

@opsharmahonu232 A must follow for traders.

[VULTURE TRADER @TraderVulture]

Every practitioner in the real world understands this instinctively. Whether academia understands it with equal clarity, I am less certain.

[VULTURE TRADER @TraderVulture]

The average behaviour of the market participants will not allow us to understand the general behaviour of the market.

(Average is useless in the presence of nonlinearities and asymmetries)

[VULTURE TRADER @TraderVulture]

Markets aren’t the sum of participants—price changes reflect the most motivated buyer and seller. The most motivated rules. Only traders understand this: why a price can drop ten percent because of a single seller.

[VULTURE TRADER @TraderVulture]

For every trader out there.
By- Horace (leading Roman poet)

[VULTURE TRADER @TraderVulture]

“The next time a Merton proposes an elegant model to manage risks and foretell odds, the next time a computer with a perfect memory of the past is said to quantify risks in the future, investors should run—and quickly—the other way.”

Note: Merton here refers to Robert C. Merton, the Nobel laureate (1997, Economics) who co-founded Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) — the hedge fund whose spectacular 1998 collapse, despite its elegant mathematical models.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

The problem with academia is that those who truly know often don't teach, and those who usually teach often don't truly know.