The Trading Turret

Information and opinions only, not trading advice.

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

In 1981 Reagan was in a "change" role like Trump now and doing similar things. The result was a recession and $SPX dropping 28% from its late 1980 high. In 2025 I expect a similar fate, with market bottom near the 200WMA which may coincide with 2021 top (another -13% from here).

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

@unusual_whales 😂😂😂😂😂😂

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

Optimal $SPCX post-IPO entry window: Late Aug-Sept (Days 70 to 90). Forced index-fund buying is over, the first Q2 earnings will be priced in, and rolling 7% unlocks (at Day 70 and Day 90) will begin hitting the tape. If buying, scale into a long-term position during this window.

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

@gnoble79 @great_martis ASC 606 and 810 are a helluva drug. Principles based accounting (rather than rules) sound great on paper until financial engineering of this scale happens. If FASB has any legitimacy they will plug this hole. Eventually we'll be back to a rules based system.

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

@biancoresearch And this list even misses a lot of AI related players: AMAT,LRCX,KLAC,SNPS,VRT,CSCO,EQIX

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

78 out of the top 100 performing large cap in 2026 stocks are either direct or indirect AI plays. 16 out of the remaining 22 stocks are direct or indirect beneficiaries of the Iran war (oil, gas, fertilizer and defense). So basically two themes account for 94% of performance.

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

@Chartfest1 Via Gemini Pro LLM using Financial Analyst and Technical Analyst Personas. Both align with 100 points down.

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

@TheMaverickWS Those were the days! I bought CSCO and INTC back then and still hold them, but gonna be selling them both this week.

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

@citrini Morningstar noted that 86% of Cerebras' current revenue is tied to UAE-based entities, raising questions about long-term sustainability.

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

@CAL_FIRE On a recent trip to Yosemite I visited the memorial of Eva Marie Schicke, a Cal Fire helitack crew member who died in the line of duty during the 2004 Tuolumne Fire. Many other memorials at Rim of the World from other fires in that vicinity going back many years. ❤️

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

@unusual_whales 🌮 Tuesday incoming...

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

@BrianSuttererMD I'm a big Garmin fan as I have their watch (Epix Pro Gen 2), their bike computer (Edge 540) and their scale. I find their sleep data is not quite as good as my Apple Watch. Love all the data I can get!

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

@Chartfest1 End of quarter shenanigans no doubt

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

@MikeZaccardi End of month and end of quarter shenanigans

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

@great_martis Dow 25K here we come 📉💀

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

@Chartfest1 Wouldn't say bullish, but expectation of a bounce due to oversold conditions

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

@PeterMallouk @charliebilello Billionaire talking his book haha

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

@Mayhem4Markets $KBWB down 5% and bond market waking up to the "AI Scare" perhaps becoming a real horror show. Yields down despite hot PPI? Hmmm...

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

@great_martis Contagion incoming...banks hit hard today. Bond market waking up to an AI-driven slowdown driving down yields despite a hot PPI print. The "AI scare" becomes a horror show next.

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

The risk of a contagion effect is real and being seen in banks and financials. The KBW Bank Index dropped 4.9% today and down 5.9% on the week. $XLF and $KBWB are both in or close to a correction, down 10% from their highs. Private credit issues could be the catalyst here.

[The Trading Turret @TradingTurret]

Bond market is starting to take notice of a possible AI-driven slowdown, driving down yields across the curve despite a hot PPI print. The "AI scare" could become a horror show if job cuts like seen at $XYZ start to show up in other sectors. What if Citrini's scenario is right?