trading places

a very bad 💩podcast about #VC #secondaries broken unicorns ❤️‍🩹🦄 & busted carry 📉🙈| @davemcclure @amanverjee @practicalVC

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$583B comp if @elonmusk colonizes Mars.

A $28T TAM. Easter eggs pointing to a Tesla merger.

@AmanVerjee read the 308-page @SpaceX S-1, so you don't have to.

It's a big week. Full breakdown:

[ tech news and vc ]
00:43 - AI holy trinity DGAF ⃤
08:04 - @AnthropicAI profitable, $900B looks cheap 🤯
13:38 - @OpenAI rushes to IPO after courtroom win 🏃‍♂️‍➡️
17:53 - @nvidia $82B print $80B buyback 💰🫲
22:20 - @mercury $200M Series D @ $5.2B 🏦
25:35 - US Govt = Quantum VC ⚛️
29:05 - NPM sues Hiive over 2ndry plumbing 🪠

[ val corner: 308 page SpaceX S-1 ]
31:06 - SpaceX S-1 highlights 📸🔦
35:56 - $28T TAM includes Martians 🌎🌍🌏🌖✨
37:00 - 3 core biz units: Connectivity, Space, AI 3️⃣
47:05 - SpaceX-@Tesla merger? 🤔
50:10 - board members revealed @IraEhrenpreis @kimbal @AntonioGracias @Gwynne_Shotwell @LukeNosek @rglein @SteveJuvertson0
53:48 - unusual staggered lock-up period 🔐

1:01:00 - @davemcclure sings a whole new Mars to close the show 🎶

[trading places @TradingVCs]

After a SpaceX IPO, investors don’t “get out” all at once.

There’s a structured cash-out timeline that controls when liquidity actually hits the market:

• Day 0–180: Most shares locked (no selling)
• ~Month 2 (post-Q2 earnings): First ~20% unlock
• If price rallies: another ~10% may unlock
• Months 3–5: Staggered ~7% releases every few weeks
• Around month 6: Majority of shares become tradable
• End of year: final unlock completes the cycle

What does this mean for investors?

Check out @AmanVerjee's full breakdown on Trading Places Podcast EP36 with @davemcclure!

[trading places @TradingVCs]

Check out the full episode 👇

https://t.co/iazqk0Xxha

[trading places @TradingVCs]

⛳ Jason Calacanis explains why Saudi Arabia pulled back from LIV Golf and other mega-projects:

"They did get over their skis in a lot of projects. NEOM specifically and LIV would be great examples of that, where maybe they started spending a little bit too freely...

I call it like splashy cashy. Somebody who's made a bunch of money goes to the casino. They just start playing a bunch of games. Then the next time they go they're like, 'Okay, which games am I gonna play? Where do I wanna put chips down?'

So I think this is just the natural second decade evolution of their participation in private stock, stocks generally."

— @Jason with @lessin @davemcclure @alex on @twistartups

[trading places @TradingVCs]

🛎️ You can check out Aman's full breakdown on the 2008 Financial Crisis on Run The Numbers Podcast 👇

https://t.co/4rFwJyUyWe

[trading places @TradingVCs]

❌ The Big Short got it wrong. Here's what actually caused the 2008 Financial Crisis

"The subprime bubble really only happened in four countries US, UK, Ireland, and Spain. Didn't happen in Germany, didn't happen in France, didn't happen in Canada... Why only those four countries?"

"Well, those four countries did something similar. They encouraged lending into subprime categories, into LMIs, low and middle income households, basically people who are at or below the median income in the community in which they live."

— Aman Verjee on Run the Numbers Podcast with @cjgustafson

If Aman just changed the way you think about financial crises. He wrote the entire breakdown in his book A Brief History of Financial Bubbles

Grab it at 👉 https://t.co/Sh4YyI0O4n

[trading places @TradingVCs]

If this clip made you think, Aman's book will rewire how you see every market boom forever

📕 A Brief History of Financial Bubbles by Aman Verjee

Pre-order now at https://t.co/Zdt6gzIzFM

[trading places @TradingVCs]

💰 Why Grifters ALWAYS Win During Economic Booms

"People are experiencing rising material wealth. And maybe it's that environment more than anything that attracts grifters and people let their guard down.

So if we are in a bubble today, one of the things you have to figure out is how do I watch out for the fraud?

"Because in Silicon Valley, there's bound to be stories now that will emerge later about AI or crypto fraud."

— @AmanVerjee with @cjgustafson on Run the Numbers Podcast

[trading places @TradingVCs]

🛎️ Check out the full breakdown on Run The Numbers Podcast 👇

https://t.co/4rFwJyUyWe

[trading places @TradingVCs]

Aman sat inside PayPal while the dot-com bubble collapsed around them. That experience didn't just shape a career it shaped a book.

📖 A Brief History of Financial Bubbles

Pre-order now at 📖 https://t.co/Zdt6gzIzFM

[trading places @TradingVCs]

Aman worked under Peter Thiel at PayPal during the dot-com bubble. Thiel knew the crash was coming.

"PayPal was one of the survivors of the dot-com bubble. But I do remember distinctly, he was talking about a bubble in 99, 2000 and how to navigate through. So funnily enough, at the top of every bubble, there are a lot of people who are self-aware or who understand what they're going through" — Aman Verjee

🛎️ Watch the full conversation on Run the Numbers Podcast with @cjgustafson and Former Paypal CFO @AmanVerjee!

[trading places @TradingVCs]

SpaceX’s next growth engine isn’t just Starlink or rockets.

It’s defense.

SpaceX is quietly plugging into the U.S. defense ecosystem with their Starshield program➡️ a classified, encryption-focused government comms network.

Reported revenue today: ~$2–3B.

But that number could scale far beyond what’s currently visible.

"That's going to be the core of their business. That's number one. Number two is space." - @AmanVerjee

Check out the full SpaceX S-1 discussion on Trading Places Podcast EP36!

[trading places @TradingVCs]

@carrynointerest @elonmusk @Gwynne_Shotwell @AntonioGracias @kimbal

[trading places @TradingVCs]

SpaceX’s board just got fully revealed for the first time, and it’s more interesting than expected.

There are 9 board members split between:

Management / insiders:
@elonmusk
@Gwynne_Shotwell
@AntonioGracias
@kimbal

Independent directors:
Veterans from Google, DFJ, Founders Fund, and early PayPal-era investors

@AmanVerjee and @davemcclure break down the architecture behind how one of the most important companies in the world is controlled.

Check out the full SpaceX S-1 discussion on Trading Places Podcast EP36!

[trading places @TradingVCs]

🛎️ Check out Aman's full breakdown on Run The Numbers Podcast 👇

https://t.co/4rFwJyUyWe

[trading places @TradingVCs]

There were 2 economic bubbles that changed civilization forever:

"The dot-com bubble, primarily centered in the U.S. between 1997 and 2000. It brought a lot of investment into the internet, into the routers, and the... telecom assets that built the internet,"

"And the other one is the UK railway bubble between 1845 and 1849. There was a huge railway investment boom, far bigger on a proportionate basis than the internet, the dot-com bubble, or what's going on in AI now."

"Those economic booms and the fact that the UK and the US had have leadership positions throughout that period is largely attributable to the fact they went through those bubbles and then kind of handled it the right way and so it was a positive not a negative with a common denominator"

— @AmanVerjee with @cjgustafson on Run the Numbers Podcast

[trading places @TradingVCs]

Aman's full research is available in his book:

📕 A Brief History of Financial Bubbles by Aman Verjee

Pre-order now at https://t.co/Zdt6gzIzFM

[trading places @TradingVCs]

xAI’s Colossus, the world’s largest AI supercomputer, already has 2 gigawatts of power.

To put that into perspective:

• The Hoover Dam produces ~2 GW
• The entire U.S. grid is ~1,350 GW
• 1 GW can power hundreds of thousands of homes

But in AI economics?

1 gigawatt of compute could support roughly $40B–$50B in AI revenue.

So what happens when Elon Musk controls multi-gigawatt AI infrastructure?

@AmanVerjee discusses how compute is becoming the new oil, and Colossus’ role in powering the next generation of AI whales.

[trading places @TradingVCs]

📖 Aman Verjee lays out the complete history of financial bubbles in his book A Brief History of Financial Bubbles

Pre-order now 👉 https://t.co/Zdt6gzIzFM

[trading places @TradingVCs]

Aman spent years studying every major market crash in history. His conclusion? Every generation thinks their bubble is different. History says otherwise.

"If the prices go up by roughly 3X or more over two years, and then all of that goes away in a symmetrical downturn, that's a bubble."

Watch @AmanVerjee's full breakdown on Run the Numbers Podcast with @cjgustafson!

[trading places @TradingVCs]

Full Episode 👇

https://t.co/4rFwJyUyWe