Trident

🇺🇸🇨🇦 | Hoya, MSFS

[Legal Phil @Legal_Fil]

Saying “I would jail anyone I dislike who might get in the way of my side acquiring power” isn’t really the best way to convince people that you aren’t a, well, you know.

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

Multiple Houthi drones intercepted at Eilat without sirens.

This, coupled with last night's Houthi ballistic missile attacks against Israel, will probably see an Israeli response against Houthi targets at Sana'a, Hodeidah, Ras Isa &/or Saleef.

The Houthis likely anticipated an Israeli response, which explains why the Houthis reiterated their ban on Israeli linked shipping transiting the Bab al Mandeb, thus reestablishing the narrative for renewed escalation against vessels/companies calling at Israeli ports.

[Trident @Trident2Gold]

@Amena__Bakr Basically all of U.S. politics is just pretending this isn’t real or still coming lol 🤷🏼‍♀️

[Amena Bakr @Amena__Bakr]

Potential oil crisis is an understatement

[Trident @Trident2Gold]

Whole political world just pretending this isn’t coming.

[Matt Smith @mattvsmith01]

Global waterborne clean product exports in million barrels per day. The last three months saw 238 million fewer barrels exported compared to March–May 2025.😬.

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

🚨NEW: Trump told me that he'd warned Netanyahu that if he went back to war with Iran, he might find himself fighting alone. "I said, 'Bibi, you better be careful, or you will be on your own very soon,'" Trump said

[Jon Seidel @SeidelContent]

JUST IN: 111 ex-federal prosecutors who served in the Northern District of Illinois have issued a statement about U.S. Attorney Andrew Boutros' office, expressing concern about an exodus of talent, grand jury irregularities, collapsed cases and a breach of trust with judges:

[Babak Vahdad @BabakVahdad]

What stands out to me is the
remarkable convergence in the messaging coming from Velayati and Qaani.

- Shortly after Ali Akbar Velayati warned that the "Axis of Resistance" could affect both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani went a step further, declaring that "from the Strait of Hormuz to Bab al-Mandab, and from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, there will be a new security belt of the Resistance."

- Taken together, these statements may offer a glimpse into the strategic thinking currently shaping Iranian decision-making under SNSC Secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr.

- The significance of the statements lies in the geography. Several colleagues have pointed to this trend before, but today’s statements seem to reinforce it. Iranian officials increasingly appear to be describing Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea not as separate theaters but as a single strategic space.

- Notably, I would add that Qaani's remarks came on the same day that missiles were launched from Yemen toward Israel and Ansarallah announced additional measures in the Red Sea. Whether coincidental or not, the timing reinforces the image of an interconnected regional theater rather than a collection of isolated fronts.

- In this reading, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Iran form parts of an integrated deterrence architecture. Pressure in one arena could generate responses in another.

- Whether this concept can be translated into operational reality remains to be seen as it will require
strong military capabilities
and coordination across multiple theaters. But Tehran seems to be signaling that future confrontations should be viewed through the lens of interconnected maritime choke points rather than isolated fronts.

#Iran #IranWar

[Holly Dagres @hdagres]

The Islamic Republic has moved on from naming its operations against Israel as “Operation True Promise (insert number)” to “Operation Victory” (عملیات نصر), which says a lot about how it views its position in this war: victorious.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

UAE state owned oil company ADNOC has awarded a tender for ~14 million barrels of crude, and it’s planning a 2nd tender. The sales are a further indication that significant volumes of crude are exiting the Strait of Hormuz in small vessels going dark (AIS beacon off).

[Natasha Bertrand @NatashaBertrand]

Via @JDiamond1: A US official denied Israel’s claim that the US intercepted Iranian ballistic missiles that were fired at Israel.

The official told CNN that the US military didn’t intercept any of the Iranian missiles fired overnight, a notable shift from previous rounds of conflict with Iran when the US expended significant quantities of its own missile interceptors to shoot down Iranian missiles aimed at Israel.

The denial contradicted an assertion earlier Monday by an Israeli military official who said the US assisted Israel’s air defense efforts, including by intercepting some of the Iranian missiles. https://t.co/WapZFSHrsM

[Kristen Cianci @kristencianci]

Platner’s campaign website was registered in 2023, while his oyster “business” was registered in 2024.

@grahamformaine is a pathological liar, and here are the public records to prove it ⬇️

[Raz Zimmt @RZimmt]

I totally agree that the Iranian strike illustrates the highly problematic transformation that has taken place in Iran’s proxy doctrine. I addressed this issue here:
https://t.co/1KLYaqDscP
I also agree that what failed to deter Israel and the U.S. over the past two years is unlikely to deter Israel now.
That said, we are still left with the problem of more hardline leadership, one with a much greater appetite for risk-taking and a strong sense of self-confidence and achievement. While this may not deter Israel, it is something Israel must take into account every time it considers striking Beirut. This is far from trivial, especially given that Trump's tolerance for broad regional escalation is clearly close to zero.
In the medium to long term (assuming a permanent ceasefire is achieved across all fronts), Iran will face a significant challenge stemming from Hezbollah’s continued weakening and the complex realities in Lebanon, particularly in light of the negotiations between Israel and the Lebanese government.
In the short term, however, preserving the ceasefire in Lebanon depends primarily on Hezbollah and Iran—not on the Lebanese government. Thus, it still provides Iran with additional leverage. As long as Tehran remains convinced that Trump does not want a resumption of hostilities, it can use that leverage to maintain the linkage between developments in Lebanon and developments in Iran.

[Trident @Trident2Gold]

Yeah this is what we need. Sure.

[RNC Research @RNCResearch]

Graham Platner: “If I had my way, elections would last two months, they would be publicly funded, and if a billionaire looked at a TV ad the wrong way we’d put ‘em in jail.”

[Mike Nelson @mikenelson586]

You know who else liked putting people who made political statements they didn't like in jail? 👀

[scary lawyerguy @scarylawyerguy]

Apparently, if you get a Nazi tattoo, have a CVS-receipt long history of treating women like shit, posting racist messages online, and oh yeah, firing up the old Kik account so you can sext with women right after you get married, YOU are the real victim 🙄

[Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو @therealBehnamBT]

Kermanshah and Khorramabad are among the regime’s key western bases and were targeted in both the 12-day war & 40-day war. These launches are proof positive that the regime will dig-out/rebuild whenever possible, hence ceasefires being used to prepare for the next round.

[Marc Short @marctshort]

Trump looks very weak in this moment

[Trident @Trident2Gold]

lol we’re doing great

[Chico Muya @chico_ray]

RUBIO: “Only stupid countries don’t shoot back when you’re shot at”

[Daniel Dale @ddale8]

In the new interview, Trump told NBC that “I didn’t guarantee no war” and that “I didn’t promise anything.”

Not true.

There was often some nuance to his rhetoric on this subject. He repeatedly promised in 2024 to avoid “endless” wars or “world” wars (not specifically all wars) or boasted (without an explicit future promise) about not having started a new war in his first term. You can argue the nuance was lost on a lot of voters, or that boasting about not having started one is a de facto promise not to start one in the future, but the nuance frequently existed.

In other cases, though, he was categorical.

At an August 2024 rally in Pennsylvania, he promised, “Under Trump, we will have no more wars, no more disruptions, and we will have prosperity and peace for all.” That month in North Carolina, he pledged, “No more wars.”

And here’s what he said in two of his highest-profile speeches. In his July 2024 address accepting the GOP nomination, he said, “With our victory in November, the years of war, weakness, and chaos will be over. I don’t have wars.” In his November 2024 victory address, he said, “I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars.”