Triz

Ball Knower...
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[NFL Memes @NFLMemes]

Jacoby Brissett on the Cardinals sideline watching Carson Beck right now

[Ian Rapoport @RapSheet]

Jahmyr Gibbs is now the highest paid RB in NFL history.

The #Lions star gets a 3-year, $75.75M deal with $51.5M guaranteed — the highest APY and the highest guarantee ever for a RB. The deal is confirmed by his agent Todd France of @AthletesFirst on IG (Toddfrance_).

[Triz @TrizSports]

Me making my 12 leg parlay for the Hall of Fame game

[Triz @TrizSports]

MLB QUICK PICKS 86⚡️

Phillies ML (-332)
Red Sox ML (-180)
Braves ML (-140)

(+246) Parlay

[Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter]

And so it begins.

[Triz @TrizSports]

We have NFL football today 🥹

[Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter]

Aaron Donald worked out today for the Los Angeles Rams, per the NFL wire.

[ESPN @espn]

Breaking: Former Patriots WR Stefon Diggs is signing with the Commanders, sources tell @RapSheet.

[Triz @TrizSports]

MLB PROPS

⚾️Gabriel Hughes U 6.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed

- Gabriel Hughes’ estimated hit rate allowed is 17.5% per plate appearance, below the slate baseline of 21.8%.
- The combined Gabriel Hughes–Tampa Bay Rays hard-hit profile is 19.2%, below the slate baseline of 24.1%.
- Gabriel Hughes’ blended xBA allowed on contact is 0.247.
- Tampa Bay Rays’ blended xBA on contact is 0.318.

⚾️Hayden Wesneski O 4.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed

- Hayden Wesneski’s estimated hit rate allowed is 33.6% per plate appearance, above the slate baseline of 21.8%.
- Toronto Blue Jays’ blended hit rate against Hayden Wesneski’s handedness is 22.9% per plate appearance.
- The combined Hayden Wesneski–Toronto Blue Jays hard-hit profile is 29.6%, above the slate baseline of 24.1%.
- Hayden Wesneski’s blended xBA allowed on contact is 0.466.

⚾️Cade Povich U 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts

- Cade Povich’s blended strikeout rate is only 7.1%.
- Cade Povich’s called-strike-plus-whiff rate over the last 30 days is only 20.9% of pitches.
- The model projects Cade Povich to face approximately 16.0 batters.
- The model projects Cade Povich for 2.26 strikeouts

⚾️Sean Manaea U 5.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed

- Cleveland Guardians’ blended hit rate against Sean Manaea’s handedness is only 17.8% per plate appearance.
- The combined Sean Manaea–Cleveland Guardians hard-hit profile is 20.7%, below the slate baseline of 24.1%.
- Sean Manaea’s blended xBA allowed on contact is 0.328.
- Cleveland Guardians’ blended xBA on contact is 0.292.

[Triz @TrizSports]

MLB QUICK PICKS 84⚡️
@ Draftkings

Reds ML (-129)
Yankees ML (-187)
Dodgers ML (-185)

(+319) Parlay

Weird day yesterday, but let's bounce back strong💪

[Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter]

ESPN sources: Two-time Pro-Bowl selection Bijan Robinson and the Falcons reached agreement on a three-year extension worth up to $75 million that now will make him the highest-paid running back in NFL history. Robinson will receive a record $51 million guaranteed, including $37 million at signing, in a deal that agent Nicole Lynn and the Falcons have been working hard on to finish up in recent days.

[Triz @TrizSports]

@JackOnTheBooks3 Yeaaa tn was fucked 💀

[FOX Sports: MLB @MLBONFOX]

The Cubs are acquiring Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor from the Mets in exchange for their no. 2 prospect Jefferson Rojas, per multiple reports

[Triz @TrizSports]

Brutal loss for the Bears today. Coby Bryant is a certified baller

[Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter]

More about Bears S Coby Bryant being expected to miss 8-10 weeks due to the knee injury he suffered today, via @CourtneyRCronin:

https://t.co/q9vKpNrPdv

[Triz @TrizSports]

@ChrisDegz 🫡

[Triz @TrizSports]

Aaron Rodgers was absolutely right to call out ESPN for not talking about the Mike Vrabel and Dianna Russini scandal.

Honestly, the whole thing just seemed to be swept under the rug. Russini had a massive audience and was the number one person fueling AJ Brown trade rumors, and then he gets traded to Vrabel’s team? I’m not sure how the NFL just let that slide. If that doesn’t sound like tampering, I’m not sure what does.

[Triz @TrizSports]

⚾️Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers
Bubba Chandler @ Brandon Sproat

- Model-projected scoring: Pittsburgh Pirates 2.9, Milwaukee Brewers 5.3 expected runs; these are projections, not actual results.

- The pitcher-adjusted Elo model estimates a 61.9% win probability for the Milwaukee Brewers; this is not a sportsbook implied probability.

- Milwaukee Brewers model win probability minus the sportsbook no-vig implied probability: +12.0 percentage points.

- Brandon Sproat’s K-BB rate over the last 30 days is weak at 8.6% (strikeout rate minus walk rate).

- Over the last 30 days, 19.5% of batted balls allowed by Brandon Sproat were hard-hit.

- Bubba Chandler’s K-BB rate over the last 30 days is weak at 8.0% (strikeout rate minus walk rate).

- Over the last 30 days, 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Bubba Chandler were hard-hit.

- Bubba Chandler throws slider 22.3% of the time, and that pitch grades favorably for Bubba Chandler against Milwaukee Brewers’ projected lineup.

[NFL Rumors @nflrums]

🚨🚨 The #Panthers announced that QB Kenny Pickett will start Thursday's Hall of Fame game vs. #Cardinals.

[Triz @TrizSports]

⚾️St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees
Michael McGreevy @ Cam Schlittler

- Model-projected scoring: St. Louis Cardinals 3.1, New York Yankees 5.1 expected runs; these are projections, not actual results.

- The pitcher-adjusted Elo model estimates a 58.7% win probability for the New York Yankees; this is not a sportsbook implied probability.

- New York Yankees model win probability minus the sportsbook no-vig implied probability: +0.8 percentage points.

- Cam Schlittler’s K-BB rate over the last 30 days is strong at 28.4% (strikeout rate minus walk rate).

- Cam Schlittler’s called-strike-plus-whiff rate over the last 30 days is strong at 29.0% of pitches.

- Over the last 30 days, 21.7% of batted balls allowed by Cam Schlittler were hard-hit.

- Michael McGreevy’s K-BB rate over the last 30 days is weak at 9.7% (strikeout rate minus walk rate).

- Over the last 30 days, 33.6% of batted balls allowed by Michael McGreevy were hard-hit.

- New York Yankees struck out in 27.4% of plate appearances over the last 30 days.

[Triz @TrizSports]

⚾️Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Andrew Alvarez @ Aaron Nola

- Model-projected scoring: Washington Nationals 3.5, Philadelphia Phillies 5.6 expected runs; these are projections, not actual results.

- The pitcher-adjusted Elo model estimates a 59.9% win probability for the Philadelphia Phillies; this is not a sportsbook implied probability.

- Philadelphia Phillies model win probability minus the sportsbook no-vig implied probability: +6.8 percentage points.

- Over the last 30 days, 29.2% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola were hard-hit.

- Aaron Nola throws knuckle curve 35.1% of the time, and that pitch grades favorably for Washington Nationals’ hitters in the projected lineup.

- Aaron Nola throws changeup 16.3% of the time, and that pitch grades favorably for Aaron Nola against Washington Nationals’ projected lineup.

- Andrew Alvarez’s K-BB rate over the last 30 days is weak at 3.1% (strikeout rate minus walk rate).

- Over the last 30 days, 25.0% of batted balls allowed by Andrew Alvarez were hard-hit.

- Andrew Alvarez throws a curveball 28.2% of the time, and that pitch grades favorably for Andrew Alvarez against Philadelphia Phillies’ projected lineup