Hit 48x on Polymarket weather on a single bet using ensembles
Singapore, May 15
Three weather models split:
> ICON forecast: 32.07°C
> GFS forecast: 29.36°C
> ECMWF forecast: 29.75°C
Polymarket followed the GFS outlier and priced 29°C
at 2¢ (market gave it <3% chance)
Little Rocky saw the disagreement and grabbed three bins covering the full spread. Among them: 29°C @ 2¢.
Resolution: 29°C
$2 stake → $97.56 payout
This is the point of running 119 ensemble members instead of one model. When models disagree, the market misprices the tails, and the ensemble catches it
Full v4 results in the next post
This is f*cking sauce.
This AI workflow will completely revolutionize how you trade.
If I had this years ago, I literally would've printed money.
In the right hands, this article is dangerous:
the best low-risk opportunity in prediction markets is making money by fixing inefficiencies
market makers have earned nearly $10M on Polymarket
"JustWakingUp" is the most profitable - capturing 11.1% of rewards paid out
prediction markets reward efficiency
This guy isn’t here to play fair.
He’s here to extract every opportunity from the market.
The true story of Wintermute
And how every Binance launch turns into a nightmare for users. 🧵
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