Penguin Capital

Tourist in all industries, learning...

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

I have a new writeup on $MSCLF that I'm happy to share

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

I am long $PASG

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

So if $QURE could get a reversal at the FDA what are the odds $PASG gets one too

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

Man too good

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

My biotech bet for 2026, $VYGR outperforms $SGMO

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

Much higher delta than I would’ve thought

[DRUGS @drug_smolecules]

LSD hit a 14.2 Δ in MDD at Week 1, and Δ remained in the high single-digit range to week 12 - in a Phase 3.

Pretty incredible. I had my doubts whether LSD could ever be a block buster, but 100% were able to be discharged at hour 8 (at least, on paper). https://t.co/s7cz7EDSAI

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

@MattyKirsh @Biohazard3737 Not sure if he specifically pushes it, but has said that he wishes companies would stay independent (ADAR1)

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

@RNAiAnalyst Well to be fair, they aren’t great drugs at all. Multiple review studies question to risk and rewards benefits when considering ARIA rates

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

@cremieuxrecueil The reason in a lot of cases is that cures have sometimes flopped dramatically. Hemgenix for hemophilia B works quite well as a cure, yet was unable to be sold. Pfizer discontinued their own approved one for hemophilia A as well because it didn’t sell.

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

@SmileysWord @peter_mantas We’ll see what happens yet. Still saying people shouldn’t marry stocks. I made my money on the upside as well

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

So if $QURE could get a reversal at the FDA what are the odds $PASG gets one too

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

Why wouldn’t you run a placebo arm? Seems weird to enroll 13 patients just to keep an eye to compare to the drug, when it’s not that much more work to have a placebo

[Monaco @monaco_biotech]

$LXEO
Lexeo Therapeutics Announces Regulatory Update and Registrational Trial Design for LX2006 Gene Therapy in Friedreich Ataxia

• BioPharmCatalyst https://t.co/GwYfmPBhyp

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

@Andre_AGTC Uhhh what about TAKs? They have an oral TYK2 too that’s about the same

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

Welcome to biotech

[Bio Stocks™ @BioStocks]

$GNPX $250M shelf.
Mcap ~ $8M

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

@Lord_of_Biotech Agreed

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

Oral drugs seem to catch high evaluations for muscular dystrophies $MSLE

[Bio Stocks™ @BioStocks]

Servier to Acquire $EWTX's Muscular Dystrophy Business for up to $2.65B

$EWTX to receive $1.55B upfront

https://t.co/SLNDtjd5oR

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

@masonat7 I think you are right. I think the bigger question mark is how much the market will value even if "successful" and safe. Ranges from very little at the moment, to a lot.

[Mason @masonat7]

Monlunabant indeed had a much better brain:plasma ratio than rimonabant. But here's the problem: at the doses tested in phase 2, brain concentration for monlunabant would be expected to match the levels seen with rimonabant (also with significantly higher plasma levels).

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

@AB1001_disciple siRNA quite a lot easier to bypass the BBB vs AVVs, no? I think both could show success. If HTT1a is the target.

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

@AaronRosenblum5 Fair points. I generally like Yuval.

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

Realistically you have to heavily discount given large amounts of future dilution due to phase 3 and the fact that at best oral would be comparable to other current avaliable ones. One would hope AEs aren't terrible and there is value in different MoA.

[BioValues @BioValues]

$CRBP let's pretend they do hit in CB1 obesity, what is the upside? 3x 5x 10x+? Remember, NVO lost $30B market cap. Downside would be maybe $1 from here? Have to have a floor value given cash/CRB-701. Has there even been such an asymmetric opportunity on risk/reward in biotech?

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

@Craigster771 I never said zero. I was just pushing back on against 10x thought process. I hope I'm proving wrong, but I think the market will still question the AEs and want to see proof via Phase 3, but I think if the data comes in good a 2x-5x is possible.

[Penguin Capital @TrueTrueIke]

@AaronRosenblum5 Conservatitive assumptions generally. I think it's possible they have a good oral drug, but I think Ph3 will cost most than $150 million personally. I don't think it's a 0, so thus r/r is good. I'm just thinking that the market will stay want to proven via phase 3.