Shaun

Pretty confident I’m still sane & the 🌎 gone crazy | You’ll never walk alone | 🎗️

[John Spencer @SpencerGuard]

“They are killing enormous numbers of civilians…they are targeting one, two, three enemy combatants and in the process killing huge numbers of civilians. @piersmorgan Piers a few minutes later ��� “If you can’t say exactly how many civilians have been killed in Gaza, what you say about numbers is bull.”

Dear @piersmorgan I tried to explain to you where numbers in the Gaza war (or any war) are going to come from "simply.” But let me type it out so you have a record of it instead of the interruptions and the tactic of just asking the same question over and over while I explain how the numbers work. The same numbers by the way that you used minutes before to criticize Israel and constantly repeat or have guests on that repeat, or more often state not even Hamas numbers but false numbers about xx civilians, xx women, xx children, xx percentages that go beyond Hamas's actual list of casualties.

First, let me correct you again (like I did to start the segment) by providing you my actual quotes:

1 - "Israel and the IDF have implemented more measures (sometimes quoted as precautions) to prevent civilian harm in urban warfare than any military in history,"

That is testable against urban warfare history of any similar situation (mostly attack of defended urban terrain). Israel civilian harm mitigation measure have included advance notification (flyers, phone calls, text messages, voicemails, drones with speakers, tv, radio, social media), safe corridors to include improving roads used for safe corridors in the middle of the war, roof knocking (notifying all residents of a building in advance for evacuations and then using non-penetrating low-yield munitions on top of the building before then waiting to strike), over daily multi-hour pauses in fighting (over 400 days of the 800 days of fighting) to allow civilian evacuations and aid movement, establishing a one-star commanded civilian harm mitigation cell that created a real time civilian presence (using cell phone presence, drones, satellite images, etc.) software reflected on all combat operating systems, handing out their own military maps to the entire population (to include the enemy) and then communicating the location of IDF operations, areas to avoid or further evacuate, using major call outs of buildings and neighborhoods, restrictive rules of engagement based on likely civilian presence, rigorous fires processes and legal reviews that often ended in calling mission off out of civilian harm estimates. Many of these measures have never been attempted, by any military.

2 - "Israel has a lower civilian to combatant ratio than any similar context (war or battle) in the history of urban warfare.” After acknowledging the lack of comparative cases (size of enemy forces (which I asked you about, you don't know), tunnels, density, strategy, tactics, prevention of civilian evacuations) but still doing the simple analysis, in order to provide the evidence for this statement I use the same numbers you and your frequent guests push to condemn Israel. But here:

Q: How do you estimate the number of civilians deaths?

A: Take the number the Hamas Gaza Health Ministry reports (despite that it includes any death in Gaza for any reason or cause (Israel/Hamas/Other terrorists) and has been well documented with inaccuracies (even having to be updated by Hamas of natural deaths, incomplete entries, false entries) and subtract the Israel stated combatant deaths.

The Hamas Gaza Health Ministry claims roughly 72,000 deaths in Gaza. The IDF says it has killed about 25,000-26,000 combatants, a number also reported by President Trump in October 2025. If you subtract 25,000 from 72,000, even using Hamas’s number at face value, you get roughly 47,000 non-combatant deaths, or a bit less than a 2:1 ratio. If you were modest to adjust for natural deaths and Hamas-caused deaths, is likely closer to 35,000–40,000 non-combatant deaths versus 25,000 combatants killed, which puts the ratio closer to 1.5:1.

If you compare 2:1 or 1.5:1 to any numbers we have (in many cases we don’t have) for wars, urban centric wars, contested urban battles they will be some of the lowest ratios (in some cases lowest by far) ever seen despite none of those wars or battles had the context of Gaza. For example:

World War II – 70 million civilians, 20 million combatants, 3.5:1
Korean War – 2.5 million civilians, 90,000 combatants, 27:1
Iraq War – 280-300,000 civilians, 150-200,000 combatants, 1.4:1 to 2:1

But wait, the Gaza numbers are usually aggregated numbers for the entire war, any death ever reported in Gaza.

But if you disaggregate the numbers to specific battles like Rafah, Khan Yunis, Gaza City 2025 for comparison you get different numbers. Based on modest numbers from the Battle of Rafah, the civilian to combatant ratio would be more like 1:100 due to multiple operational variables like the success of civilian evacuations.

Major urban battles (modest comparison of battles with any like variables).

Mosul – 10,000 civilians. Combatant unknown but total estimate in battle 5,000 – 2:1
Manila – 100,000 civilians. Combatants 17,000 – 6:1
Seoul – Unknown/no record of civilian but very likely high ratio based on histories
Mariupol – Unknown/mass graves, estimate 20-22,000 civilians, 3-8,000 combatants - 2.5:1 to 7.3:1

I actually use this discussion about numbers or quote about ratio sparingly despite how many times it has been attribute to me because I know the complexity of casualty counting especially in urban centric wars with combatants that violate the law of war and do not distinguish themselves (uniforms/marking) making determining a body found (if there is a body) or a name reported (such as methods in Gaza) and then classifying that person as was participating in the hostilities (combatant) or not (noncombatant) is beyond just difficult and should always be viewed as questionable. In Mosul, a year after the battle there was not only no agreed upon casualty number, but the Mayor of the city also said there were 40,000 civilian deaths. These numbers are always messy, political, susceptible to manipulation by the different organizations involved.

My point has always been that numbers of casualty reporting in Gaza doesn’t paint the story people routinely push. Actually, the opposite.

Urban warfare is inherently and historically costly against civilians and the infrastructure. All wars involve noncombatant death. The moral, legal requirement is to do proportionality assessments and take feasible steps to prevent excessive civilian harm.

So, using your logic Piers, if you can’t state how many combatants were killed (by Israel, Hamas, terrorist rockets, other terrorists in power struggles) … you can’t say (or allow your guests to say) Israel has killed a “large number of civilians” or “killed a disproportionate number of civilians” like you did in this very interveiw.

You can't spend years saying Israel is killing enormous numbers of civilians and then tell me nobody can estimate civilian deaths so ratios aren't valid. Those two positions can't both be true.

If casualty estimates are reliable enough to accuse Israel, then they're also reliable enough to examine civilian-to-combatant ratios. If they aren't, then they shouldn't be used selectively only when they support one conclusion.

[John Spencer @SpencerGuard]

Dear @piersmorgan I am more than happy to explain to you how I came to my conclusion based on hundreds of interviews (to include Israel’s Prime Minister, Minister of Defense, Minister of Strategic Affairs, 2 x IDF Chiefs of Staff, IDF Joint Staff 2/3/5/7, head of civilian harm mitigation cell, IDF legal branch, Division/Brigade/Company/Platoon Commanders and IDF soldiers) and six research trips into Gaza directly observing IDF soldiers in combat operations (while fighting) in Gaza City, Rafah, Khan Yunis, Netzarim Corridor and other locations in Gaza and Southern Lebanon since October 7, 2023. As well as over a decade of urban warfare scholarship, teaching, training and a deep understanding of the history of urban warfare, development and implementation of any civilian harm mitigation measures by any military in history.

[sophie @qw3rtyqw3rty]

Grace Tame does not represent me or any other woman with autism.

A few weeks after the Bondi terror attack she was calling for additional attacks invoking the phrase “globalise the intifada”, which has been a dog whistle to kill Jews for decades. She has denied the rapes of Israeli women on October 7th for which there is documented evidence. She has consistently spread disinformation, lies, and antizionist rhetoric that has targeted Jewish people in Australia for antisemitic violence.

She is thoroughly problematic, politically fringe, proven herself as completely intolerant of others, and shouldn’t be the face of women’s autism.

There are so many brilliant, non politically problematic professional women the ABC could’ve chosen instead to shine a positive light on autism in women, discuss the personal challenges, talk about the latest research, and frame it positively.

Yet the ABC decided to take this opportunity to launder more antisemitic rhetoric, giving a big “fuck you” to both the Jewish community, and to people with autism.

[Shaun @Truthseeker6789]

@DrewPavlou “Greater 🇮🇱 “

[Shaun @Truthseeker6789]

@SonnyBWilliams @chrisswift898 ⬇️

[UN Watch @UNWatch]

🔥 BEST VIDEO OF THE YEAR
Rare moment of truth at the UN from brave Kuwaiti dissident @JJJuraid, invited by UN Watch:

Mr. Chair,

I heard the term “colonizers.” But who are the real colonizers? A Jewish Kingdom ruled in Judea for a thousand years. We, the Arabs, took this land.

Who Arabized Egyptians, Phoenicians, Persians and Amazighs? It was us, the Arabs.

So why does the council enshrine a lie by keeping a permanent agenda item on Palestine, while ignoring the indigenous heart of Israel returning home?

Let us be clear about who is actually defending our sovereignty. Today, Israel is a fighter for peaceful nations, freeing Gaza from Hamas and saving Iranians from the Islamic Republic.

What Israel is doing to the IRGC — stopping a genocidal regime from acquiring nuclear weapons — is a gift to humanity.

There are 57 Islamic countries and only one Jewish state, Israel. Despite the ongoing hateful desire to eliminate it, Israel has not only survived, it has thrived.
I don't believe in miracles, but this is one.

So I ask the UN: when will you end the ritual of condemning Israel?

Is it not time, instead, to learn from Israel? How to defeat terror, defend free societies, and pursue peace.

Thank you.

[Shaun @Truthseeker6789]

@Peter_Fitz ⬇️

[MAGA Voice @MAGAVoice]

BREAKING 🚨 President Trump just ENDED Joe Kent’s whole career with one screenshot . WOW

[Lyle Culpepper @ShutupLyle]

Live from Iran: Please donate your unused enriched uranium at https://t.co/FPeBWdfH8D

[Sana Ebrahimi Ledene @__Injaneb96]

Mr @NYCMayor,

I say it as an Iranian New Yorker: You are a human garbage.
When our people were getting slaughtered and hunted like animals by the Islamic Republic terrorists, you stayed silent. You didn't say a word. Now that the regime, the murderers of our people are under attack, you came out of the woodwork to defend them.
You are an Islamist human garbage and I fight your agenda as long as I breathe.

[Elica Le Bon الیکا‌ ل بن @elicalebon]

I don’t care where you’ve been, but I urge you to stand with Iranians now.

[Shaun @Truthseeker6789]

@AlboMP Words mean nothing

Take action or history repeats 🤬

[Shaun @Truthseeker6789]

@nawagadj @SenatorWong There is a slight security problem when allowing Gazans into Israel !

Israel used to sometimes give permits & visas for some Gazans - not anymore …

[Shaun @Truthseeker6789]

@nawagadj @SenatorWong 🥱

[Erin Molan @Erin_Molan]

To those suddenly calling for UNITY?

Absolutely - yes - but know this:

We can all hold hands in a circle and sing Kumbaya until the cows come home but unless we are willing to do the hard stuff too - kids like Matilda will still die!

We won’t ever defeat an evil we refuse to even name!

[Sharri Markson @SharriMarkson]

When NSW Labor Premier Chris Minns is applauded and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is booed by the same crowd, it exposes a leadership failure: this isn’t about politics, but a personal reckoning over inaction on antisemitism.

For more than two years my community begged Albanese to act on escalating violent antisemitism and he refused.
Now there’s been bloodshed at Bondi beach.
Unforgivable.
This anger at the Prime Minister is how the vast majority of Australian Jews feel, not the select few Albanese surrounds himself with and consults.

[Shaun @Truthseeker6789]

@SenatorWong Then stop importing terror to 🇦🇺 !!

[Tony Abbott @HonTonyAbbott]

As we mourn those who lost their lives on Sunday, there’s also a reckoning that must take place. There’s been a colossal failure to crush the Jew hatred that’s festered in Australia over the past two years and to stamp out the radical Islamist ideology that’s allowed it to spread.

We must stop importing these ideologies and the people who live by them into Australia. They are at odds with Australia’s core Anglo-Celtic culture and fundamental Judeo-Christian ethos, which has made us one of the most free, fair and safe societies in the world.

[Arsen Ostrovsky @Ostrov_A]

Forgive me @antonioguterres if I believe your horror at the massacre in Sydney - which I survived - is entirely hollow.

For last 2+ years, you have excused, embraced and mainstream Hamas and Islamist terror against Jews and only poured more fuel on the fire of hate.

[Kobie Thatcher @KobieThatcher]

This was Sydney, Australia just 6 months ago.

These scenes should have been an urgent warning.

[Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 @DrewPavlou]

MASS SHOOTING AT BONDI BEACH

MULTIPLE GUNMEN

THIS IS HAPPENING LIVE