Axslade

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

@OpenOutcrier TMHC

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

@Zac_Markovich He knows you’re dangerous with leverage 😄

[Earnings Whispers @eWhispers]

https://t.co/YMBUH6b9Qh

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

@LewisHamilton complained enough on the car so far but the last 3 yes THREE Races were ALL Driver ERRORS.

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

@waterloo_intern So we don’t need Fable anymore? 🤷‍♂️

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

@AlfieJCarter SKILLS

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

@firstadopter @HammerstoneMar3 Two parts to this 1. Administration vs. Anthropic 2. Protection of the Big League (The 1% that control the World). Doom yes if all 8Bn idiots just die and care less of the future.
So the ying-yang! You choose.

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

@elonmusk

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

Oh well…

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

@HammerstoneMar3 Or it’s just non-extinguishable 🤷‍♂️

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

@financialjuice Europe $ASML or the US or S.Korea or $TSM ? Do we know from where? @financialjuice

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

Do you remember when you joined X? Ha! Let’s see how the teenage years roll!

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

Hey @IBDinvestors, Is that a C&H forming on $BULL?

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

Anthropic IPO be great if they launch around the same time …

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Apple plans to let users choose rival AI models across iOS 27. $AAPL

Apple has been testing integrations with Google and Anthropic. $GOOGL

Apple to offer more AI flexibility with iOS 27 due this fall.

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

@SoulzBTC TRADING

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

Great read…

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

NOTES: PTJ on trading, investing, macro

Core trading philosophy

-You make the biggest money by riding a major trend for a very long time.
-Trading is like boxing: most of the time you are jabbing, feeling out the market, waiting for a clean opening.
-The real money comes from a few “knockout” opportunities.

Examples:
Bitcoin in 2020.
Short two-year notes in 2022.
Precious metals moves.
Potential yen rally setup.

Trader vs investor

-Investors can win by believing in a long-term compounding story.
-Buffett represents the ideal investor mindset: believe in America, tolerate 50% drawdowns, let compounding work.
-PTJ says he envies that belief system but does not naturally have it.
-His own approach is more trench warfare: daily, active, defensive, alpha-driven trading.
-His fund reportedly had a negative correlation to the S&P 500, so he sees his returns as alpha, not beta.

Compound interest

-He now deeply respects Buffett as “the OG of compound interest.”
-Buffett understood compounding at age nine.
-PTJ says he underappreciated compounding for much of his own career.

Charlie Munger’s key contribution: moving Buffett from cheap “50-cent dollars” toward great companies that compound.

Risk management

-Every great trader or investor is first and foremost a risk manager.
-Liquidity is central: “You’re only worth what you can write a check for tomorrow.”
-Seeing Brother Hunt go from one of the richest men in the world to nearly bankrupt after silver collapsed (within weeks) permanently shaped PTJ’s view.
->He learned never to trust any asset blindly.
-Avoid being trapped in illiquid positions when volatility explodes.
-AI worries him because the world is deploying it with little risk management despite huge tail risks.

Market opportunities

-Big opportunities usually come from:
-Markets getting too carried away.
-An imbalance lasting too long.
-A central bank doing something wrong.
-A government doing something wrong.
-Crowded complacency.
-An undervalued, underowned asset finally getting a catalyst.

Catalyst framework

His ideal macro trade seems to need:
1. Something underowned.
2. Something undervalued.
3. Something “way out of whack.”
4. Market complacency.
5. A catalytic moment.

Example: yen.
Yen is grossly undervalued.
Japan has a huge positive net international investment position.
Much of its foreign exposure is in the US and unhedged.

->A new dynamic, “Japan first” political leader could be the catalyst. (which just got elected. See Buffett major buys into this year)

He compares potential currency appreciation to what happened under Reagan, Thatcher, or Trump-style leadership shifts.

Example:2022 two-year note trade

-He believed there was too much fiscal stimulus.
Powell stayed too easy for too long.
-Once Biden reappointed Powell, PTJ saw it as “go time” to short two-year notes.
-The logic: the Fed would have to normalize policy.
Bubbles and valuation

Valuation matters.

-Buying the S&P 500 at very high valuations historically leads to poor or negative 10-year returns.
-He mentions an S&P P/E around 22 as historically dangerous for forward returns.
-The S&P is excellent over 100 years, but that includes periods when valuations were extremely low.
-Starting valuation drives long-term returns.
-Today’s market is harder because valuations are high.
-He sees public equities, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure as much more heavily owned than in 2007 to 2008.
-Private equity exposure in institutional portfolios has risen materially, creating more illiquidity risk.

Execution

-Execution is about buying when there is fear and selling when there is euphoria.
-“Am I buying when there’s blood on the ground?”
-“Am I selling when there’s complete elation?”
-Great execution requires intense focus on intraday highs/lows and pain points.
-You need a plan before the market opens.
-The plan should be self-executing when volatility hits.
-Being two or three hours late can be materially costly.
-Information overload damages execution quality.

Information overload

-Modern trading is harder because there is too much incoming information.
-Emails, news, and signals distract from observing price, fear, greed, and positioning.
-In the pit-trading era, he could focus more purely on market behavior.
-Today, macro traders must fight distraction to maintain execution quality.

Traits of great traders

-He thinks great traders are about 70% born, 30% made.
-Key traits:Type A personality.
-Intense curiosity.
-Love of competition.
-Love of games.
-Natural probability thinking.
-Emotional resilience.
-Ability to act under maximum fear or greed.
->Trading is another form of probability theory.

Lessons from Eli Tullis

-Eli was excellent at sensing maximum fear and maximum greed.
-He waited patiently for emotional extremes.
-After a huge loss in cotton, Eli remained composed and confident.
-Lesson: when things get brutal, you cannot emotionally collapse.
-You must wear confidence and believe you can come back.

Daily process

-He plans around the US open and close.
-He reserves time before and after the close to map out the next day.
-He thinks ahead to Tokyo, Hong Kong, and London.
-He wakes during the night to watch London open and do analytical work.
-The rhythm is constant because macro is global.
-Communication as trading skill
-Journalism-style writing helped him as a macro trader.

Put the conclusion first.

-Identify who, what, where, when, why, and how.
Rank information by importance.
-Trading requires principal component analysis of many variables.
-The most important variable changes over time.
-The trader’s job is to know what matters most right now for a given instrument.

Macro framework

-Markets are interconnected capital flows.
-Trading means understanding global flows and positioning across asset classes.
-Central banks and governments often create the biggest dislocations.
-The best trades often arise when policy error meets positioning imbalance.
-You must constantly ask: what is actionable now?

AI and markets

-AI is an exogenous risk variable.
-He sees AI as a major tail risk because it is being built with a “build, break, iterate” model.
-That model works for ordinary technology, but not when the “break” could cause catastrophic social damage.
-He believes AI should be regulated.
-He specifically argues all AI-generated content should be watermarked.
-AI could cause major workforce disruption within a few years.
-From a risk-manager’s lens, AI is currently under-managed.

Passion and longevity

-Trading keeps his mind sharp.
-He sees trading as mental therapy.
-He wants to keep working because “you retire, you die.”
-He still trades because he loves markets, competition, and the ability to make money to give away.

Best distilled PTJ trading rules

-Ride big trends as long as possible.
-Protect liquidity above everything.
-Never trust an asset blindly.
-Be a risk manager first.
-Wait for extreme fear or extreme greed.
-Look for underowned, undervalued, complacent setups with catalysts.
-Policy errors create big trades.
-Valuation matters, especially for long-term equity returns.
-Have a plan before volatility arrives.
-Execute when others freeze.
-Focus on what matters most right now.
-Avoid information overload.
-Trading is probability, not certainty.

[cinesthetic. @TheCinesthetic]

One of the greatest stand-up bits ever, Rowan Atkinson as the Devil is pure genius.

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

The work of a diligent trader!

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

https://t.co/lwliIOZEnY

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

@TheShortBear Great work there @TheShortBear . Always liked your articles and due diligence! 👊🏻.
The only thing that can bring it back to earth is a simple announcement from Avis $CAR of a Stock-Split! during shareholders’ meeting next.

[Axslade @TwistedJungle]

$SPY $700 here we are..! 🚀