American Elections Analysis

Hello, I'm AEA. Here you'll find content on data, polling, predictions, election models, & forecasting, as well my takes on elections across the United States.

[The Calvin Coolidge Project @TheCalvinCooli1]

🚨Report: Flávio Bolsonaro has announced that he has been banned from leaving Brazil and ordered to surrender his passports following his election defeat

[FactPost @factpostnews]

Trump: Tariffs don't cause inflation. They cause success. They cause growth. They cause jobs.

[Political Polls @Politics_Polls]

Alaska Governor:

🔵 Kreiss-Tomkins 51% (+20)
🔴 Wilson 31%
🔴 Bronson 12%
🔴 Taylor 7%
.
🔵 Kreiss-Tomkins 53% (+6)
🔴 Wilson 47%

@The_Real_ASR, 1,068 LV, 10/23-25

[Election Wizard @ElectionWiz]

NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL — Governor

🟥 Kelly Ayotte (i): 52% (+10)
🟦 Cinde Warmington: 42%

Rasmussen Reports | LV | 10/23

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

New - Governor poll - New Hampshire

🔴 Kelly Ayotte (Inc) 52％
🔵 Cinde Warmington 42％

Rasmussen (B) - LV - 10/23

[Leading Report @LeadingReport]

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi has introduced resolution to designate July as Indian American Heritage Month.

[Politics Watch @politics_watch1]

Democrats have a 76% of winning the Senate according to latest Silver Bulletin model

https://t.co/LHLYOwE4dz

[FactPost @factpostnews]

Trump: Handsome guy. Tall, beautiful guy. He was in a beautiful dark pinstripe suit. Central casting

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Texas Early Vote Tracking: Day 7

As of Oct. 26, 2026
Total votes: 4,342,999 (+285,094)
43.9% of projected final turnout.

Modeled 2026 Vote:
🔵 James Talarico: 45.5% - 54.9%
🔴 Ken Paxton: 42.9% - 52.3%

VoteHub currently rates the race as Tilt D.

[OSZ @OpenSourceZone]

2024 Election Prediction Markets vs Polls

FiveThirtyEight final polling average
Pennsylvania: 🔵 Harris +0.2
Michigan: 🔵 Harris +1.0
Wisconsin: 🔵 Harris +1.0

Kalshi:
Pennsylvania: 🔴 Trump 52%
Michigan: 🔴 Trump 51%
Wisconsin: 🔴 Trump 51%

Trump ultimately won all 3 states

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Federal judge blocks Trump's plans to overhaul a Washington, D.C., public golf course into a “championship-level facility.”

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Targoz Market Research/South Carolina Policy Council poll | 10/16-10/25

US Senate South Carolina 2026

🟥Darline Graham 47% (incumbent)
🟦Annie Andrews 46%
Others 3%

[Kalshi Politics @KalshiPolitics]

MICHIGAN GOVERNOR ODDS:

🟦 Jocelyn Benson: 91%
🟥 John James: 9%

[Election Time @ElectionTime_]

🚨SHOCKING NEWS: Incumbent Susan Collins is STILL forecasted to win re-election.

Maine - 2026 Senate (odds)
🟥Susan Collins* 54.7%
🟦Troy Jackson 45.3%

Projected Margin: 🟥R+0.9

With just over a week to go before Election Day, five-term incumbent Susan Collins faces another test of whether she can overcome political gravity and win re-election.

Collins notably won re-election by nearly 9 points in 2020, MATCHING Joe Biden’s margin of victory in the state.

Forecast via @Pollsmax.

[Political Polls @Politics_Polls]

New Hampshire Governor:

🔴 Ayotte 52% (+10)
🔵 Warmington 42%

@Rasmussen_Poll, 970 LV, 10/20-23

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

SENATE DECIDER #4: South Carolina is SHOCKINGLY close.

🔵Andrews - 48.9%
🔴Graham - 47.3%

Chance to win: Andrews 58%, Graham 42%
Outside money: $16.1M
https://t.co/PuBT8OZtgx

[FactPost @factpostnews]

Trump is fuming over Obama's Cheesecake Factory joke:

I'm really good at real estate and fixing things. I fix things very good, very beautifully. He said, 'This isn't a Cheesecake Factory.' Can you believe it? Which is a very successful company.

[NewsWire @NewsWire_US]

China’s AI Bubble Has Already Burst, Wiping Out $480 Billion in Market Value — Reuters

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

WaPo: The sleeper issue that could decide the U.S. Senate race in Texas

The race between Ken Paxton (R) and James Talarico (D) has revolved around the issue of government corruption, a top voter concern just behind the economy.

https://t.co/L1SyQHsEFG

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

New - Generic ballot poll - Jewish voters

🔴 Republican 64％
🔵 Democratic 33％

McLaughlin (B-) - LV - 10/26