Umid KD

Writer turned Data Engineer. These days, I mostly talk nonsense about things I pretend to know.

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

@SupesBatsy I must be the only person in this world who loved Snyder's Superman and is also loving this one. You cultist really make shit up from nothing.

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

As a father of a 4 month old, I am glad that my kid will almost certainly have THIS Superman to grow up to in his childhood.

[Axel🦇 @AxelTalksFilm]

they couldn't have chosen a better face to build the dcu around

i would actually feel safe around this superman

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

@Evens412550 Bro just read the comics, why bother watching love action when you want it to be exactly like the comics.

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

@inceptioned @Bigdickrick9696 @Footballtweet Fuck me I completely forgot that, but tbh VdV was quite injury prone so Luka still did some shifts at 10.

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

@chalhattttt I am sorry that happened to you but projecting your experiences on others isn't really the smartest or the right thing to do.

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

@ryan_towerrr You gotta up your hating game, man. What's this respecting boomer relatives nonsense you speak of?

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

My take on this is that Anthropic wants government bail out, and is, therefore, cooking up this. I find it hard to believe a company whose CEO has been saying Software Engineering jobs will die out in 6 months, for 2-3 years now.

So much is being spent on compute, but not enough is being got in return. At this rate, it will be a long time since they even breakeven, let alone profit. So, the best solution here for all parties, really, is for the government to take stake in the company.

Bernie Sanders wants US Gov to take 50% stake in AI companies, Trump himself hinted towards something similar. This is what will happen and I do think it makes a lot of sense.

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

@FadeAwayMedia German suplex is one of the most common moves in wrestling history.

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

@WrestleOps The things that Oba will do to him can and should NOT be televised.

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

@DiscussingFilm @ComicBook Henry Cavill is still my favorite Superman, but I must admit that David Corenswet may soon take that place He really is the proper Boy Scout Superman that I grew up to.

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

My 2 cents on today's bloodbath:

I was up 230% YTD at one point. Not anymore.

Nasdaq down 5%. Semis wrecked. $AVGO dropped 12% after guidance disappointed and Hock Tan somehow managed to reference last year's numbers during the call -- which shouldn't matter but somehow it did. Jobs came in way too hot. Fed hike now priced in. The whole vibe shifted in 48 hours.

And it is probably just the beginning.

The Strait of Hormuz is closed. 20% of the world's oil supply is blocked. And for months, the market has just... shrugged. Nasdaq rallied 28% since March while this was happening. That doesn't sit right with me. At some point that bill comes due. Maybe it already is.

Trump posted on Truth Social a few hours ago, expressing his surprise at market vomit on good job numbers. The bloodbath continued anyway. When the cheerleader can't move the crowd, that's usually not a great sign.

I've had an incredible run this year. And maybe this is just the chickens coming home to roost -- the war in Iran continues with no end in sight, leading to higher oil prices and stickier inflation, pushing towards rate hikes. That's not a backdrop you ignore just because earnings are good.

Having said that -- I don't think the engine is broken. AI spend is real, corporate earnings are growing, the US economy just added 172K jobs. This feels more like the market got too far ahead of itself and is now correcting. Consolidation before the next leg up, not the start of a collapse. Unless Iran drags on and oil breaks $140 -- that's the scenario where this gets ugly.

The SpaceX IPO is coming too. Funds raising cash for that could explain some of the selling. If so, this is temporary. But I'm cautious on that read.

Needless to say, the price action on Monday will be interesting. I do think we have a mini relief rally on Monday, before we keep going further down in a choppy manner in the days after.

Not financial advice. DYOR.

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

Closed this for a 5% profit because I didn't want to hold this over the weekend. I'm unsure what happens on a Monday. Although I am inclined to believe that we might see a relief mini rally on Monday before continuing this drawdown--in a brutally choppy manner--for quite some time.

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

Bought me some $NBIS call warrants here. (My superstitious ass made my 4 month old infant son touch this before purchase.)

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

@Bigdickrick9696 @Footballtweet You might be correct, however, the playing size itself are quite similar. Also Modric at Tottenham was also number 10, but was moved to the left from time to time, up until the rise of Bale. He only started playing deeper after joining Real Madrid.

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

WELP.

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

Bought me some $NBIS call warrants here. (My superstitious ass made my 4 month old infant son touch this before purchase.)

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

@Pedr_trader I am thinking $2B market cap, which is almost 4x from here.

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

Even though I have cash to buy stocks, I do not seem to have the will to commit. (I did end up buying a bit of $DGXX because I have a lot of conviction in that company.)

Skill issue, tbh.

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

Mostly gut feeling because I have had an incredible last 1 year and have this uneasy feeling of the chickens coming home to roost. Maybe irrational, but I am not sure because the macroeconomic and the geopolitical situation of the world is not convincing me too much.

We have an ongoing situation at the state of Hormuz where 20% of world's oil is currently blocked and yet the market seems to not have had a negative impact from that. At some point that will definitely hit and maybe he could be even now who knows.

Also the fact that despite Trump's truth social post about the stock market just a few hours ago, the bloodbath has not really stopped. This gives me the impression that Trump or his words don't hold the same leverage as it did before.

Lots of negatives but I am also aware that the market can stay irrational for a long time. There is also the possibility of funds raising cash for the SpaceX IPO. In that scenario, this downturn is going to last for a while but then will be pumped up again soon (but I am cautious).

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

Bought me some $NBIS call warrants here. (My superstitious ass made my 4 month old infant son touch this before purchase.)

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

One day Trump is going to rug pull us all. For the sake of my portfolio, I hope that day is not today.

[Merlin Capital 🧙‍♂️ @merlinscapital]

STOCKS SHOULD GO UP: TRUMP

BRO IS LITERALLY 100% WHEN HE TWEETS BUY

GET LONG YALL, HE KNOWS SOMETHING

[Umid KD @UmidKD]

@001Oxygen This will be my seventh world cup. Damn it, I feel old.