Unbiased Investing

I'd appreciate the follow! - Data Driven Investment Info - Not Financial Advice!🚫 [email protected]

[Adam May @A_May_MD]

American markets may have been closed Friday, but The Euronext was open, and $ABVX continued its run in Europe, closing at the US equivalent of ~$154.50.

That'd be another 7% rally and an all time high for $ABVX tomorrow should the US markets reflect what Europe showed (on reasonable volume, for the Euronext) on Friday.

I still feel that this $ABVX rally should continue, and I strongly believe that people have made the mistake to anchoring to the prices we saw on this recent dip.

The reason for the dip has now been entirely debunked. Not only were the cancer cases well within background rates, but several of them other occurred so early or had such strong evidence suggesting that they were pre-existing that the FDA isn't even going to look at them twice. The cancer BS is over, end of story.

Meanwhile, nobody debated that the efficacy data that $ABVX showed, both in part 1 and part 2, blew away every single expectation anyone had going in - even the very most bullish.

So what we have now is $ABVX significantly underperforming the $XBI over the last month despite releasing what is arguably the greatest IBD readout of all time.

Since the $ABVX data release:
↪️$ABVX +9%
↪️$XBI +20%
🙄Oh, and don't even get me started on the YTD performance...$XBI +32% vs $ABVX +8%!

$ABVX is underperforming the index by ~11% during the period where it released 2 absolutely blue sky scenario readouts.

Sure, $ABVX looks like it is up a lot over the last couple weeks if you want to start your analysis at the nadir of a stock crash that was driven by some mass delusion about cancer rates. But we can rather objectively see now...that entire escapade was just absolute bullshit 🤷‍♂️

There never was any legitimate cancer signal, and the prices at which the stock traded during that period of insanity are equally as illegitimate. I think it's quite easy to argue that these numbers can be entirely ignored.

In that case, shouldn't $ABVX be outperforming the index since its data were released? It certainly stands to reason.

It's hard to stress how far beyond the bullish expectations the efficacy data resulted, and there wasn't a SINGLE safety issue to discuss AT ALL once we were able to talk sense into people about the cancer nonsense.

The clinical remission rates were at the absolute top end of the bullish range for BOTH dose levels, and the endoscopic remission rates (often GI docs' preferred endpoint) were well above what most people even thought POSSIBLE to achieve with a monotherapy...DOUBLING the delta of the next highest ER rate from the 2nd best drug...completely unprecedented efficacy.

It does not seem controversial to me to think that these incredible beats on expectations should lead to market outperformance. I've never seen an I&I readout come so far above consensus results, ever.

How far should the rally go? IDK. I don't really "do" price targets, but:
↪️Just "market perform" (+20%) since the data brings $ABVX to $159
↪️Just outperforming the market by 10% (+30%) brings $ABVX to $174

I personally don't see $170s as unreasonable at all. In fact, I thought the $170s range was where the stock was headed on the original part 1 dataset, but part 2 seems to have upped the ante again by showing incredibly high rates of maintenance responses achieved in induction non-responders (a very big deal for time on therapy and market uptake, and thus for the revenue bottom line).

Maybe the stock goes there soon, maybe it doesn't, but it certainly wouldn't be unreasonable from my perspective. I now believe we are looking at a high probability of nearer term M&A that should land somewhere in the $200s. Would the M&A premium on $170 be 100%? Of course not. But the relatively high probability of near term M&A should be reflected in the open market price here, because there is already no secret that talks are ongoing.

IMO the stock should be pricing in:
1⃣Absolutely unprecedented maintenance data
2⃣Newfound M&A speculation (due to the Reuters article and the greenshoe breadcrumb that all but confirm talks have heated up)
3⃣A massive 20% rally in the $XBI

Even at the $154 level that the stock hit on the Euronext Friday...$ABVX still isn't fully pricing in any of those factors from my (BIASED) perspective.

Let's see where it goes! Speaking for myself, I'll be disappointed if it doesn't at least see the $160s this week. There has just been too much exceptionally positive news for this stock to underperform the $XBI like this, and I simply do not buy the idea that anyone should anchor themselves to prices that resulted from a "cancer scare" delusion that has been completely debunked. The "cancer signal" wasn't real, and neither were the temporary stock prices it generated.

Here's to hoping we finally see some OUTPERFORMANCE with $ABVX from here on out!

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[Unbiased Investing @UnbiasedJesseR]

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[Unbiased Investing @UnbiasedJesseR]

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[Unbiased Investing @UnbiasedJesseR]

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[Unbiased Investing @UnbiasedJesseR]

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[Unbiased Investing @UnbiasedJesseR]

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[Unbiased Investing @UnbiasedJesseR]

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[Unbiased Investing @UnbiasedJesseR]

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[MrBeast @MrBeast]

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[Ryan Whitney @ryanwhitney6]

Cowboys and Leafs fans are the exact same. Anything that happens within their team is always national news and they always stink when it matters most. For any fans of both teams may god have mercy on your soul

[Unbiased Investing @UnbiasedJesseR]

@AndrewRangeley It’s fire. This appliance has been in use 5x a week in my household.

[Unbiased Investing @UnbiasedJesseR]

@sinstockpapi Never mind, read the comments!

[Unbiased Investing @UnbiasedJesseR]

@sinstockpapi How does this compare to $BTI?