SinStockPapi

SinStockPapi

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

@HedgeInsight Excel please thanks

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

@WaterworldCapi1 @rhunterh Ken Griffin / Citadel

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

@aleksizy @GavinSBaker Dude it’s already a weekly data release. Classic example of data / quant guys not understanding fundamentals and just thinking in data world. Like PL use to say at Coatue!

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

@GaryGensler @citsecurities @SEC_Enforcement @SECEnfDirector @GoldmanSachs @jpmorgan @SECGov @Citrini7 You can see in the level 3 securities order flow detail that after this was posted you saw an influx in retail orders

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

Now is the part of the cycle where Substack guys manipulate small float stocks. This thing literally got halted right after he posted this in his Substack chat. While he might say “be didn’t buy it” @Citrini7 still has a commercial / economic interest bc his degen subs moon it

[Citrini @citrini]

Now is the part of the cycle where you find businesses that are priced like they will die and then make money when it turns out they aren’t going to die (even if the business is still kinda meh)

$RENT

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

@GaryGensler @citsecurities @SEC_Enforcement @SECEnfDirector @GoldmanSachs @jpmorgan @SECGov @Citrini7

[Andrew Freedman, CFA 🦅 @HedgeyeComm]

Looking to find a home on the buyside for a junior analyst who gets markets and long/short investing. Hungry and passionate. Capable of idea gen and critical thinking. Open to all sectors but consumer/TMT experience. DM or e-mail me if interested in resume. Avail asap. Thanks!

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

@Alphaholic1 @InnocenceCapit1 He’s terrible. He just shitposts on here all day. No one on FinTwit runs capital at a real fund. All just wealth mgmt bros

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

@Rebrand_As_Y What are you at for FY25. Street is way too high. More reasonable base case is $5.35 EPS

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

@Rebrand_As_Y @liensofnewyork Dude you literally didn’t have a model or know what basic #’s were. You talk about how pods “don’t invest” meanwhile you don’t even have a basic model.

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

@liensofnewyork @Rebrand_As_Y Liens is right... Meanwhile avg non pod fund struggles to even have dialogue w a PM etc. I don’t work at a platform, but only losers are guys like @Rebrand_As_Y who make it their whole personality to dunk on pods lol. A week ago he got exposed on Spotify and deleted his tweets

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

@Rebrand_As_Y @aanalystbro Dude you literally went on a rant re $SPOT then it turned out you weren’t even fucking modeling the company, let alone correctly. 😂😂😂

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

@amandakcantrell Can you follow back to DM

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

@parmarhema Hey Hema can you follow back. Want to DM you

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

Word of advice, don’t take advice from a guy who was a mediocre / bottom decile PM. Who know tries to sell his grifting classes to the weak.

[Brett Caughran @FundamentEdge]

Oh man had so many conversations with PMs over the years on this exact topic. Existential conversations.

Investment professional leaves a solid seat for a pod PM role. Guarantee is enticing. Autonomy & direct payout is enticing. "I've been a money maker, how hard can it be".

Market neutral, tight risk, you are great if you can do 3-5% consistently (looser risk 6-8%+). BUT, 3-5% on gross is actually 6-10% long/short spread, i.e. if my longs are up 6% and my shorts are flat I made 3% on gross.

And this alpha is actually alpha, not relative factor bets, beta exposure, etc. And 3% isn't really 3%, as you have between 50-75bps of top-line expenses to chop through before you are in the money.

The range of outcomes is so wide. $100m P&L year and we are talking about a $15-20m profit pool at typical payout ratios. PM can take home eight figures and pay lieutenants seven figures. Life changing money. A flat year and you are living off base salary, which is nearly impossible to do in NYC with a family. This range of outcomes makes the seat incredibly stressful. It can eat you alive if you let it (in ways, it ate me alive).

The reality is making 3-5% on gross is damn hard, particularly doing so consistently. Pareto distribution holds...the average poker player doesn't make money, nor will the average PM. So 6-8 / 10 PMs will churn out over 2-3 years running market neutral, and it indeed is not a sustainable career path. But it's not designed to be!

Except for the exceptional PM, the maniac who can grind positive P&L 10-12 months or consistently generate $50-$150m of P&L on a scaled book. But those are the exceptions, not the modal outcome. And with more capital and more competition, sustaining position as the exceptional PM gets more and more challenging.

Advice I always give for senior investment professionals headed to market neutral PM seats. Let go. Don't be attached to the outcome. Know you are playing an incredibly difficult game. Try to not let it grind you down. Certainly work hard and plan for 100% dedication. Swing the bat and hope for the best, but remember it's not life or death. Probabilistically you will fail. And paradoxically with that less serious mindset, you can shrug off the inevitable challenging periods and maintain the focus, self-belief & optimism that are required to play the hubristic game of alpha investing.

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

@bucketshopcap @FIGfluencer Eh they are fine. Canned some ppl that’s norm. Baly actually managed last ~4-5yrs well. Up 33% in 2020, 8-10% in 2021-2022. Sure lagged leers in 2023 but firm way better than pre-2018. I mean they won’t even take checks anymore. Up same as Citadel so far in ‘24

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

@sj_xxxxxxx @doodlestein @bucketshopcap They’ve actually managed last ~4-5 years really well and way different firm than pre-2018. Up 33% in 2020, ~8% in 2021, ~10% in 2022. Sure, in 2023 they lagged but materially beat multi manager peers in 2020. Better vol vs. MLP too.

Easy to shout from the cheap seats.

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

@heartbreakout @msciencellc @yipit @yipitdata FYI - @heartbreakout is illegally sharing your reports / data. He is also selling your reports / data for commercial use.

[SinStockPapi @sinstockpapi]

@rev_cap He’s a walking lawsuit waiting to happen. MScience reports have language all over them stating not to disseminate (esp for commercial use) @heartbreakout Shameful that he’s using other ppl’s work and re-selling it on Reddit.