Asymmetric Bets

10 Year Hedge Fund Analyst | Private Company CFO | Sharing idiosyncratic stock ideas with accelerating fundamentals | NFA DYOD

[Asymmetric Bets @UncleAlpha007]

@LTwolfe @wolfejosh

[Asymmetric Bets @UncleAlpha007]

$evgo is obviously dramatically underpriced in my opinion. Market should be look at it more like $tost.

$evgo is locking in premium real estate at very high ROI, but the business is dragged down by new builds / pace of growth.

If I was an activist, I would be pushing shitco's like $dov $vnt to use their huge FCF to acquire $EVGO. Build out the network faster.

Not a sexy AI related tweet, but needed to be said.

@DanielSLoeb1 @BillAckman @ACapitalLP

[Asymmetric Bets @UncleAlpha007]

@LTwolfe

[Asymmetric Bets @UncleAlpha007]

@kylekuzma big facts

[Asymmetric Bets @UncleAlpha007]

Language is unclear in my opinion, I lean towards lock up expiring tomorrow, but I think it’s a $100 stock by year end so positioning around a lock up is a fools errand. Anyone saying lock up caused coreweave decline is wrong. At the time, people were saying the useful life of GPUs was 2 years (now the best thinkers on this topic are saying 10 years). Either way I am very long

[Asymmetric Bets @UncleAlpha007]

@StopTheStealF2 What filings?

[Asymmetric Bets @UncleAlpha007]

@DeItaone lol

[Asymmetric Bets @UncleAlpha007]

i made made several posts about, look at mine from yesterday.... it explains it fully... 400m is what they are doing ALREADY THROUGH June 1. They have sandbagged the guidance obviously to beat and raise.... if they sign more deals, which based on the slides from their website say should go to $1.2B by end of year, the stock goes way higher....

[Asymmetric Bets @UncleAlpha007]

Just another morning where I find myself buying $BRUN

Its simple -- they're going to a $1B ARR rate by end of this year. Peers at 7x multiple (BRUN should be higher since growing faster). That's $7B+ market cap. Today we are sub $3B

No one serious cares about a share unlock

@burningbushcap @mkfilko

[Asymmetric Bets @UncleAlpha007]

@capitify That’s what they’re already doing through June 1. It does not include new deals, remember, we are talking about exit rate for 2026.

[Asymmetric Bets @UncleAlpha007]

@athuinvests You’re talking about a company that is already underpriced relative to peers by 200%. If it goes to $20 I well go all in and post in on this app — not going to happen

[Asymmetric Bets @UncleAlpha007]

@mkfilko Monkeys 🐒 making more sense than GPUs these days, go figure!

[burningbushcap @burningbushcap]

$BRUN getting sold off because local genius "discovered" that SPAC shares eventually get unlocked. Talk to management. $BRUN has $400 million of ARR as of June 1 that will likely be orders of magnitude higher by the end of the year given their pipeline and historical conversion. The best capitalized player in the space ($NBIS) is coming to them for their services. And yet you think the CEO who financed $BRUN himself from day 1, and just received his initial investment ($8.5mn) back when the company went public (read a filing!) is going to sell a massive slug when he knows what's coming down the pipe. Sometimes you have to use logic. and sadly sometimes X is not filled w/ logic

@UncleAlpha007

[Asymmetric Bets @UncleAlpha007]

@zakthorpe @KawzInvests I mean not really, we’re talking about $150m-$200m of new supply hitting the market (maybe). Against several $10B+ tech funds that probably want to buy shares. Should get eaten up quick. Might be volatile idk

[Asymmetric Bets @UncleAlpha007]

Coreweave insiders only sold 5% of new float in the first month, the sell off was on sentiment around useful life of GPUs as chanos and burry were screaming 1-2 obsolescence. Now you have the best semi investor on the planet @GavinSBaker telling you useful life might be 10 years, very different environment

[Asymmetric Bets @UncleAlpha007]

@RJCcapital Right that’s why nebius came to BrUn for capacity

[Asymmetric Bets @UncleAlpha007]

$fnma $fmcc @BillAckman

My take on the Bill Pulte @pulte DNI situation is that it gives him the clearance needed to go after Obama Admin on Net Worth Sweep

This is because he received a ton of scrutiny for going after Lisa Cook on Fed Board

I still think the SPS amendment and ERCF get done this year, even if shortly after midterms