UnlearningCFA

Self-taught corporate governance analyst

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

@risk2rise Sorry, I didn’t see this until now.

I don’t really have an opinion on that. They’ll probably just renew it, but I’m not super close to the name.

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

Inspired by @AndrewRangeley recent series on governance dark arts, I thought I’d write up a potential spring-load with $LXU.

Not as much torque given they’re RSUs, but the timing is very fishy nonetheless. Earnings are tomorrow after the close.

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

@theyukonmarcos Haha yeah, sometimes these spring-loads hit, and sometimes they don’t.

I haven’t done too much work on the fundamental side of $LXU. This is more a short term trade that should be unwound tomorrow morning after the market reacts.

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

Well, the board really screwed these execs by hurrying their grants. Looks to be down ~9% this morning.

Weird play.

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

Centene $CNC earnings are on Feb 6th. The company awarded yearly RSU/PSU grants on Jan 26, instead of the typical mid-March cadence.

This smells like a spring-load.

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

@TSOH_Investing Brown-Forman added an Executive Change in Control severance plan in October 2025.

No family controlled company needs such a plan, so I’d argue that’s when strategic talks started overall.

https://t.co/aQTJ53PDOs

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

@WrigleyCapital With $135MM in grants on the line to be priced on March 5th, you bet that the ~8% after hours decline could be a nice little cherry on top for @aneelb

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

Disclosure: I did not create the spring-load image, @NonGaap did.

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

Centene $CNC earnings are on Feb 6th. The company awarded yearly RSU/PSU grants on Jan 26, instead of the typical mid-March cadence.

This smells like a spring-load.

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

@Comp_Cap_TO @lorenz_swen @NewmoonCap @MikeFritzell @StockJabber @uv_shares Haha that would be an unreal tool! I’ve tried to use AI to generate ideas based on compensation changes but it usually doesn’t narrow it down for me enough.

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

Wish I could earn ~$70MM if my stock price only outperformed 25% of the companies in the S&P 500.

Nice work if you can get it. $CRWD

https://t.co/XsoULzxBod

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

@McBullish I think the “risk” that you are outlining is that the stock may not be cheap enough yet for them to want a large option grant.

Maybe the current decline in the stock is an accurate assessment of the decrease in company value due to the loss of market share.

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

Wondering when to catch the Copart $CPRT falling knife? Just wait for the gigantic option grant.

April 2009 (financial crisis) - 2MM options for the CEO. 2MM for the President.

June 2020 (Covid-19) - 1MM options for the CEO.

The stock is down ~40% from the highs, but no grant.

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

@McBullish I think that’s fair-ish.

The options were given because the stock was cheap as a result of the crises. This time around, the stock is “cheap” but driven by company issues.

If they truly thought it was cheap now, the executives would be trembling with greed (option grant)

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

@henrythatsme Agree 100%. The family control essentially dictates that this will go on for the foreseeable future.

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

🧵 Pollard Banknote $PBL.TO owns 50% of NeoPollard Interactive (NPI), a JV growing 20%+ YoY with 50% EBIT margins. Just taking into account NeoPollard (NPI) earnings, $PBL.TO trades at ~15x EV/NOPAT. A very reasonable price for great growth and margins.

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

@Speedwell_LLC @FundasyInvestor

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

https://t.co/X9h082Rpn6

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

Wrote it up at $6.72. Acquired today for $12.00.

Took a little longer than expected, but the governance signals were there!

https://t.co/PUA2wG9tMa

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

With some recent amendments to the change of control agreements, I think this company is setting the stage to run a sale process.

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

$VZ stock essentially unchanged since the writeup. No spring-load on earnings, but at least the downside was capped.

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

I’d argue that Verizon $VZ is possibly setting the stage for an earnings spring-load on October 29th.

Link in bio.

[UnlearningCFA @UnlearningCFA]

@DBclouds99 Yeah, definitely not good news. This is a battleground stock, and I guess we’ll see when earnings come out.