UpsideDrift

Trading stocks, indices, crypto and onchain markets. Occasionally right for the correct reasons and often right for the wrong reasons

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

So… it’s been a long while

Haven’t posted for a few years having been recovering from medical

But I’m excited to try posting again

All sorts of takes across Crypto, Tradfi

Stay tuned!

[based16z @based16z]

you spent your whole life working or doing free cashflow analysis just go all in Bitcoin and stop that stupid shit

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

@tyler My no moon-math, math says conservative case implies $1500-$3000 $ZEC in 24 months timeframe

https://t.co/sowimqgWtr

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

Using very conservative assumptions and being realistic about it, no moon-math :

Considering things like geographical distribution, tech savvy-ness, HNW studies etc.. I estimate on a median basis to see only a few low hundred thousand millionaires interested in privacy wealth or diversifying to assets like zcash:native over a 24 month timeframe.

Then considering typical crypto allocation - be it from their financial advisors or self driven which on a conservative end will range between 0.5-1.5% of net worth..

The conservative case results in potential 1.5-2.5b of inflows over 24 months that would have an implied price range of between $1500 - $3000.

This is the conservative case btw

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

Using very conservative assumptions and being realistic about it, no moon-math :

Considering things like geographical distribution, tech savvy-ness, HNW studies etc.. I estimate on a median basis to see only a few low hundred thousand millionaires interested in privacy wealth or diversifying to assets like zcash:native over a 24 month timeframe.

Then considering typical crypto allocation - be it from their financial advisors or self driven which on a conservative end will range between 0.5-1.5% of net worth..

The conservative case results in potential 1.5-2.5b of inflows over 24 months that would have an implied price range of between $1500 - $3000.

This is the conservative case btw

[Tyler Winklevoss @tyler]

There are more millionaires in the world than there are whole units of Zcash. 60 million millionaires and only 21 million ZEC. Think about it.

[Pool 2. Paulie @Pool2Paulie]

Yeah so cash-cat:native looks like zcash:native Thursday

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

Is it wise to call $CASHCAT the "next $DOGE" or no?

[Value @valueandtime]

This is what people on the Robinhood app are seeing lol

[Tyler Winklevoss @tyler]

There are more millionaires in the world than there are whole units of Zcash. 60 million millionaires and only 21 million ZEC. Think about it.

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

That said we are poking above anchored VWAP from ATH which is always a good thing

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

$BTC

Now back at the yearly VAH and looking to break through for the first time since Jan

+ today would prob be DeMark9 on the daily.

Will it be a short term top, or is momentum going to simply carry us through?

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

"Whatever it takes" rings a bell from the Dragi era

[Charles Gasparino @CGasparino]

SCOOP: Treasury Secretary @SecScottBessent will do whatever it takes to "put the fear of God" into the bond vigilantes, shorting the long end of the curve in an attempt to drive the 10 year yield to 5%, Wall Street executives with direct knowledge of his thinking say. That would include buy backs, selling short-term debt, possible elimination of long-dated bonds like the 20 year etc. It's a short-term solution to keep yields from soaring further, strangling growth as the midterms approach, they say, and doesn't address the real problem: Debt now at the $40 trillion level, and competition for capital from AI buildout. Longer term, don't look for austerity coming out of the Trump White House in its remaining years, they say. The plan remains top possibly "grow" out of the debt level through increased tax revs because the cure for such high debt levels would be recession inducing taxes or austerity. Story developing

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

It's nice being long the cat of SOL and cat of RH

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

$CASHCAT looks like it wants to go

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

@0koNaoko being sent right now

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

$CASHCAT looks like it wants to go

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

Since I commented...

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

Honest thought.. Is $HYPE now less attractive as a bet to $LIT?

Reason being we now priced in $HYPE being eventually (in some way or form) introduced to the US after Trump's recent mention. While there is definitely still upside if things work out, there is also significant downside if "talks break down" or some issue occurs.

On the flip side, $LIT seems well-positioned either way. If things turn out well, something something rising tide lifts all boats. If the above scenario plays out, it could then be seen as the dominant perps player in the US.

Just a thought...

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

@QwQiao Here's a visual to help anyone reading this

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

Here is a visual look at it

[qw @QwQiao]

the best historical analog for zec imo is the 2013 btc double bubble. similar htf price action, marketcap range, and community. after breaking the first high (~$250) it took btc just 4 weeks to 4x and reach the second high (~$1100). the zcsh etf may just be the fuel needed for zec to repeat the feat.

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

Is it confirmed that Ox Alpha is from Zhipu?

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

You thought $1000 was the psychological barrier

Yes, the barrier acting as support once zcash:native flips it

[Leo @0x_Leo_]

have seen this sorta pa so many times now

that 1000 round number is absolutely going to get railed through

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

Honest thought.. Is $HYPE now less attractive as a bet to $LIT?

Reason being we now priced in $HYPE being eventually (in some way or form) introduced to the US after Trump's recent mention. While there is definitely still upside if things work out, there is also significant downside if "talks break down" or some issue occurs.

On the flip side, $LIT seems well-positioned either way. If things turn out well, something something rising tide lifts all boats. If the above scenario plays out, it could then be seen as the dominant perps player in the US.

Just a thought...

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

@ColdBloodShill Agreed. If you expand your time horizon I think at some point there might be some catalyst that would reprice the strong assets on RH chain