VAIBHAV DALAL

FUN LOVER

[VAIBHAV DALAL @VAIBHAVDALAL]

@Sag21C @caniravkaria Is it listed one?

[🇮🇳 Focused Investing @ParveenBhansali]

Top Midcap Stocks which are value buys at current levels👇

🥏ForceMotors
🥏FrontierSprings
🥏ShilcharTech
🥏TechnoElectric
🥏GodfreyPhilips
🥏AvantiFeeds
🥏VadilalIndustries
🥏PondyOxides
🥏AparIndustries
🥏KwalityPharma
🥏SakarHealthcare

[🇮🇳 Focused Investing @ParveenBhansali]

TD Power
#TDPOWERSYS

Most Powerful Growth Triggers:

1. Gas Turbine/Data Center Structural Boom:
As per Management this is the strongest segment with highest growth potential with OEM visibility till 2030 and Data centers moving toward captive power (off-grid dependency). Additional use cases are grid stabilization and synchronous condensers.

This matters as Data center plus AI capex is exploding globally and TDPS is positioned exactly in the power backbone layer and therefore is the primary long-term compounding engine.

2. Record Order Book plus Export Surge:
Q3 inflow: INR 6.56bn (All-time high)
+61% YoY
84% export mix
Core backlog doubled in 24 months

This matters as it gives Revenue visibility for multiple quarters and
Operating leverage kicks in with
strong execution runway.
The backlog growth of 120% vs FY24 is not normal, it signals a structural shift, not a cyclical bump.

3. Plant 3 Capacity Unlock:
This is an immediate earnings triggers with capacity already
operational from Dec 18.
Q4 target: ₹550-575cr/quarter
Q1 onward: ₹600cr/quarter
Peak throughput possible: ₹2,600–2,800cr

This matters as Capacity unlock leads to revenue acceleration and therefore FY27 raised guidance off ₹2,200+ crore (called conservative though) and also operating leverage improves margins too and therefore this is the near-term earnings acceleration trigger (FY26-FY27).

4. Export led FX Tailwind & Minimal Hedging:
FX gains expected from Q4 onward
79% export mix (9M)
Only 10% hedged
INR depreciation directly boosts bottom line

This matters as Revenue growth and currency tailwind means dual benefit and natural hedge via export dominance. If INR remains weak then earnings surprise likely.

5. FY27 conservative guidance (upgrade potential)
FY26: >₹1,800cr
FY27: ₹2,200+ cr (called “conservative”) and extremely high probability of upward revision

Management confidence unusually strong. If execution continues➡️ earnings upgrade cycle &
Earnings upgrades ➡️ stock rerating trigger.

6. New U.S. Gas Turbine Customer:
This is engineering order stage and conversion expected in weeks and
“Big forecast” for next year

Entry into new U.S. client deepens exposure to U.S. data center plus gas turbine capex cycle with repeat order potential too. This can materially expand export scale. This point is actually more important than it looks on surface level.

The U.S. gas turbine market is large, high-value, driven by data center + AI capex and dominated by established OEM ecosystems. If TD Power is supplying to a U.S. gas turbine OEM
Or entering directly into U.S. captive power ecosystem, it means:
- Technical credibility validated
- Global quality acceptance
- Compliance cleared
& That’s a brand upgrade moment.

7. Hydro Vertical Breakout (New Growth Leg)
Next year expected to be highest ever hydro revenue as refurbishment vertical becoming large with 2-3 year visibility.

This adds diversification as refurbishment means recurring business model and OEM-agnostic positioning means wider addressable market.

8. Gross Margin Sustainability (35%)
Copper price pass-through has been confirmed
Booked lower-price copper inventory
Similar margin profile across products

This Protects earnings quality despite commodity volatility and if combined with FX tailwind then it can lead to potential margin expansion.

Recent mgmt concall therefore indicates structural demand (not cyclical spike), capacity unlock, margin tailwinds, export leverage and order visibility till 2030 (gas turbine segment). If execution sustains, this combination becomes a multi-year earnings compounding story, not just a short-term capex play.

[VAIBHAV DALAL @VAIBHAVDALAL]

@ParveenBhansali @AdeptMarket Excellent Picks

[🇮🇳 Focused Investing @ParveenBhansali]

1️⃣GE Vernova T&D/Siemens Energy
- Power evacuation supercycle
2️⃣TD Power/Kirloskar Oil Engines
- Generator & power equipment play
3️⃣Aditya Infotech (CP Plus)
- STQC + Railways RFP
4️⃣ V2 Retail
- Bharat consumption compounding
5️⃣KEC International/Kalpataru Projects – T&D EPC leverage
6️⃣Data Patterns/Astra Microwave - High-margin defence electronics

[VAIBHAV DALAL @VAIBHAVDALAL]

@nid_rockz How about Nykaa??

[VAIBHAV DALAL @VAIBHAVDALAL]

@nid_rockz Sir, Please check the results of Sandur Manganese

[VAIBHAV DALAL @VAIBHAVDALAL]

And it turned highly bearish 3 months back. 😄

[P R Sundar @PRSundar64]

Yesterday Nifty became long technically.
Today, Bank Nifty has become long technically.

Looks like Nifty is headed towards 23300.

[Sandeep Singh @Alchemist1320]

Question : what does it even mean that FIIs don’t pay taxes in any other country ? How is that possible ?

Answer : FIIs don’t pay taxes anywhere else in invested country. India is the only major country which taxes them at source. Other countries let FIIs handle at redemption / client end.

GOI thinking : one can claim tax offset.

Why GOI’s thinking is impractical : most fund are simply creating a tax liability at NAV level for India exposure. Many of their clients don’t pay any taxes in end and some do. Hence whole process of tax offset doesn’t work for many and for many others it’s too cumbersome.

Why are we discussing it now when LTCG was done 7-8 years back ( hiked last year) : earlier India performance was okish in dollar terms but with increased treasury yields, Indian tax adjusted 6-7% USD return is not worth operational hassles. Slowing Indian economy has accelerated selling and major fresh investments are anyway unlikely as they can simply move to other APAC or even DM countries.

All this operational hassles was worth only if India was Snow White and other were dwarfs.

In all this talk of India’s golden decade and century and Vishwa guru and what not , we forgot basic that India is still an EM (on per capita basis only slightly above Africa) and hence ignoring a vital source of capital in myopia and arrogance is no less Harakiri than Demot.

We as BJP supporters have given such long rope to incumbent Government that it no longer cares to even fix its own basic mistakes. ( and not to even consider PM/HM/FM giving all those childish statements in run up to elections on PSU rallies / Markets will give an all time high / FIIs don’t matter)

Top 2% India is anyway voting via their feet by sending kids abroad or settling overseas themselves. For rest it’s very unfortunate to have decisive government but now in wrong directions.

[VAIBHAV DALAL @VAIBHAVDALAL]

@nid_rockz Sirji, View on #PrestigeEstate results please

[VAIBHAV DALAL @VAIBHAVDALAL]

@drprashantmish6 BTW Who is playing Jagga Jaasoos🤔

[VAIBHAV DALAL @VAIBHAVDALAL]

@chiragdashj One should delve oneself if One's bias doesn't give expected results.
#ChangeYourStanceIfYouCannotScoreEvenAfterAFewDotBalls

[VAIBHAV DALAL @VAIBHAVDALAL]

Ye pura playbook jaan ke kya teer maar liya..?? Aapke hath me kya aaya uspe focus karo.. Paisa banane walo ne khub paisa banaya.. Ye sab narratives are useless..🤷‍♂️

[Shyam Sekhar @shyamsek]

I have much more to add. Agar aise sab kuch bole toh, sirf woh log ke liye sebi ne ek alag investigative wing kholna chahiye inke office mein. I have so much material. And it's so easy to catch all these dirty tricks. I saved myself from them 30 years ago. So pura playbook janta hoon mein.

[Dr.Arpit Gupta @ArpitGu77664707]

Worrisome conditions in RG kar hospital case....

I would urge all my followers to retweet on this case 🙏🙏

Indian doctors are in danger 🚨🚨

#BENGAL_HORROR

https://t.co/Ii80A3CUFw

[VAIBHAV DALAL @VAIBHAVDALAL]

Every gap is not necessarily to be filled..!!

[Mitesh Mishra @MiteshM93981203]

@darshitpatel84 What about this gap which nifty left in dec 2023 … ?

[VAIBHAV DALAL @VAIBHAVDALAL]

@INCIndia #EkAkelaSabPeBhari

[VAIBHAV DALAL @VAIBHAVDALAL]

@7Chandanverma @WealthSolitaire Buy Fixed Deposit upto ₹5 Lac. It won't hit stop loss ever..!!

[VAIBHAV DALAL @VAIBHAVDALAL]

@market801 @threadreaderapp @UnrollHelper Did you buy??

[VAIBHAV DALAL @VAIBHAVDALAL]

@AI_Feb21 It's always a pleasure to listen to @Finstor85 . Thank you bro🤗

[VAIBHAV DALAL @VAIBHAVDALAL]

@AI_Feb21 Unable to listen.. So much break of audio