Victor Kotsev

Conflict analyst and journalist focusing on international politics, business, technology, and innovation. RTs, MTs & links ≠ endorsements

[Victor Kotsev @vkotsev]

@NiohBerg Following you. Would love to be able to DM you. Could you follow me back?

[Victor Kotsev @vkotsev]

Shame on many in Europe.

[Decado @ItsDecado]

Long thread 1/2

Report from Tehran, written from April 18 to April 25

Tehran does not look like the city I once knew.

It looks like a city under occupation.

17 days after the ceasefire, the mood is not simple hope or simple despair. It is confusion, distrust, exhaustion, and a silence full of questions no one can answer.

The subway is free now, apparently. A cheap little bribe from the same terrorist Islamic Regime occupying Iran that spills our blood, breaks our economy, cuts our internet, then throws crumbs at us as if a free ticket can buy forgiveness.

And of course, even the free subway is late.

That is their whole empire in one image:

ruin your life,
offer you a discount,
fail to deliver that too.

The streets are not alive the way they should be. People move because they have to, not because the city calls them out. Public life has become functional, not social. Daytime is for errands, clinics, work, survival. Night belongs more and more to fear, checkpoints, and the regime’s staged little circuses.

You see fewer faces buried in phones now, because what is there to check when the regime has strangled the internet for weeks? Instead, almost everyone wears headphones, as if the whole city is trying to shut reality out before it crushes them.

Because the thought is unbearable:

that after all this blood,
after January,
after the arrests,
after the torture,
after the gallows,
this mafia might still survive.

Every major intersection, every square, every main four way carries the same sickness. Men in green and black, guns and batons in hand, military vehicles behind them, walking over our streets like they conquered a foreign land.

For one second, you feel like you have been dropped into a Metal Gear game.

Then you remember:

no, this is my city.

Do you know what it feels like to be a third rate citizen in your own homeland?

It has nothing to do with success, education, money, or work. Under this occupation, if you are not part of the mafia, you are disposable. Everything you have can be taken from you. Your job. Your home. Your phone. Your name. Your loved ones. Your life.

So you learn to walk carefully in the city where you were born.

I played in these streets.
I made friends here.
I rode my bike through half of this city.
I know Tehran like the back of my own hand.
I found love and got my heart broken in these streets.
I went on dates in cafés all over this city.
I worked in some of them too.
I have been part of the startup system of this city.
I have been to most of the bookstores.

I know these people. And do you want to know the interesting part?

We all feel it.

Being a Tehran kid is like being a New Yorker. It is more than an address. It is a rhythm, a wound, a language, a map written under your skin.

And now I have to move through it like a spy.

In my own city.
In my own homeland.

I have two phones, because one has to stay clean for the street. If they stop me and search the wrong one, I am not the only one who pays. My loved ones pay too.

That is what life becomes under a regime that treats truth like contraband.

The information space is broken beyond words. Rumors move faster than facts. Verification feels almost impossible. Trust in official sources is dead, and even unofficial news arrives wounded by blackout, fear, and delay.

People are not only uncertain.

They are trapped inside uncertainty.

[Victor Kotsev @vkotsev]

There are no simple moral choices in this war. But there are also voices we can’t afford to ignore, especially if being on the right side of history is what we want.

[Bahar Akhavan @AkhavanBahar]

This week was tough. I had dinner with my intelligent friends from European countries, people who have spent half their lives working within the United Nations. We were having a good time until the conversation turned to Donald Trump and Iran. Everyone, without exception, spoke badly of Trump: that he causes problems for everyone, that war is terrible, that it is illegal, and so on.

I stayed silent. When everyone finally became quiet, I asked only one question: who is actually going to collect and remove those more than 400 kilograms of uranium?

My French friend said: Trump is no better than the regime. On top of that, he has started an illegal war, and many countries have nuclear power plants why shouldn’t Iran have them too?

I exploded inside, but I remained silent at first. When I finally broke my silence, I said: was it illegal when the United States helped the French during the Second World War? Was it unnecessary?

Then silence returned.

I kept thinking about how to express everything happening inside me; how to explain the regime to a European-someone surrounded by left-wing ideology, enclosed within indirect forms of censorship, and always ready to say that war is terrible, yet surprised when I say many Iranians wanted it.

How do you explain to people who live in safety that some nations sometimes see outside pressure as the only remaining path when every internal path has been closed? How do you explain that they do not even speak in geopolitical terms, but judge only from a position of moral comfort, while others are speaking about survival?

Europeans who, despite democracy and free internet, still do not know what happened in Iran on January 8–9. Europeans who believe every conflict can be understood through the same moral template. Europeans who condemn all violence in theory, but have never had to live under a Islamic system where violence is part of everyday life.

And I sat there with the feeling that the distance between our realities was greater than the table around which we were sitting…

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: The IRGC Navy is publicly calling Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi an "idiot" on international maritime Channel 16, broadcasting that the Strait of Hormuz "is still closed" and "we will open it by the order of our leader Imam Khamenei, not by the tweets of some idiot."

He added "All vessels that have a connection with our enemies will be targeted if they try to pass."

[Miad Maleki @miadmaleki]

10/10 BOTTOM LINE: A naval blockade imposes ~$435M/day in combined economic damage. Storage fills in 13 days, forcing well shut-ins that cause permanent reservoir damage. The rial enters terminal collapse. Iran's alternatives outside the Strait can replace less than 10% of Gulf throughput. The blockade makes continued resistance economically impossible.

[Adla Massoud @Adlamassoud]

🚨Ali Akbar Velayati, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, warns Lebanese PM @NawafSalam that he "should know that ignoring the unique role of the resistance and the heroic Hezbollah will expose Lebanon to irreparable security risks".

"Lebanon's stability rests exclusively on cohesion between the government and the resistance," he said.

[Elizabeth Tsurkov @LizHurra]

Iranian hackers got into the phone of the former IDF Chief of Staff exposing visits to Qatar and Jordan

[Victor Kotsev @vkotsev]

A noteworthy claim I am seeing in several reports.

[Citrini @citrini]

Strait of Hormuz: A CitriniResearch Field Trip

The Field Report from Analyst #3 is live.

https://t.co/rwJffd8l81

[Victor Kotsev @vkotsev]

The most plausible explanation I've seen so far of some of the weird aspects we know about last night's rescue operation. All I can say is, I am no big fan of Hollywood so I am not looking forward to the movie. But I do know there is a whole lot more to this story that has yet to emerge...

[Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell]

Some may be wondering why the US flew 2 x MC-130 into a landing zone in Iran rather than use other types available. The clue is in the use of the Night Stalker AH-6 Little Bird Helicopters, which were also destroyed at the forward landing site. 🧵1/8 https://t.co/LhBXTfcdfU

[Victor Kotsev @vkotsev]

@ArminNavabi Thanks for this! Looking forward to more.

[Mehran Haghirian @MehranHaghirian]

Former Qatari PM to Zarif & Iran:

“You may believe that you have achieved progress in some aspects, and perhaps temporary tactical gains, but the cost was clear: the loss of an important part of your friends in the region, and the erosion of the trust that was built over years.”

[Victor Kotsev @vkotsev]

Is this an actual peace offer from Iran or just a private initiative (coated in the propaganda style of the Islamic Republic to shield the author from being branded as a traitor domestically)? Note that Zarif was the (former) Iranian foreign minister who negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal... https://t.co/FJI8CIzjEi

[Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch @BabakTaghvaee1]

BREAKING: According to CENTCOM, the second U.S. Air Force CSAR team sent into Iran to rescue the crew of the downed F-15E of the 494th Fighter Squadron has successfully located and rescued the second crew member.

He ejected, survived the crash, and is now safe in Iraq.

This is good news for the 48th Fighter Wing community at RAF Lakenheath—both crew members of the downed F-15E are now safe.

Also, the crew members of the second HH-60W helicopter involved in the rescue operation of the second crew member, which was shot upon by means of MANPADS, are also safe.

Left video below shows the second HC-130J involved in this operation over Khark Island and the right video shows the first one near Yasuj.

#OperationEpicFury #OperationLionsRoar

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Everything suggests that at least ~4 million barrels of crude exited the Strait of Hormuz today. Largest outflow since the 1st day of the Third Gulf War.

(... And yes, that's a fraction of the 20 million barrels a day that typically left the SoH on any given day pre-war...)

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

I think way too many ppl are delusional about this idea of letting Iran control the SoH, having the US pull out, and just letting Iran set up a toll booth.

Where does Saudi’s power actually come from? It’s not just because they’re rich. Their entire influence comes from being the world’s only swing Producer. We need oil, and Saudi controls that market.

If Iran takes over the SoH, they become the most powerful, one of a kind Global Swing Producer in history.

If they don’t like the oil price? They can just "adjust" the traffic in a strait that handles ~20mb/d to swing prices however they want.

If the UAE gets on Iran’s bad side? "No passage for UAE tankers." If Kuwait tries to build a bypass? "Fine, the SoH is closed starting today. Let’s see if you can finish that bypass—which takes years—without making a single dime."

By letting Iran control that flow, the US is effectively making Iran the ultimate energy gatekeeper. The entire regional hegemony shifts to Iran. Saudi and the UAE lose everything.

Think about it—if you were MBS, would you let this happen? Let’s say the US pulls out this week. The US started this mess, and now the GCC has to just sit there and watch their power handed over to Iran?

Let me give you a reality check for Americans: Imagine Mexico now controls the North American continent.

"Want to fly to the UK? Get Mexico’s permission. Want to import jet fuel from Asia? Pay Mexico a toll and take the route they tell you to.

Did you dare to criticize Mexico? Now, no container ships can enter your waters. You can’t say a word against the great President of Mexico."

It sounds like a fantasy, but that’s the reality for the GCC. If the US tries to run away? If I were the GCC, I wouldn’t let them leave. I’d grab them by the hair and drag them back to clean up the mess they made.

I’ve said before that this is an existential issue for Iran and Israel. Well, Iranian control of the SoH is an existential issue for every other GCC nation.

And the GCC has leverage. They have massive wealth invested in the West, huge U.S. asset holdings, decades of lobbying networks, and they are the biggest donors for Trump’s terms.

And of course they have oil. Do you really think Brent would stay below $100/bbl if the GCC teamed up and cut just 3mb/d for six months?

Even the most optimistic guy knows the answer is zero chance. They don't even need a fancy excuse: "Oh, since the US gave up on us and Iran owns the SoH, it's not safe. We have to cut production. Sorry!"

Within months, the US would be begging to come back. It’s just pushing the Middle East into an even bigger pit of fire.

Thanks for listening to my TED Talk :)

#oott #iran

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Truly incredible things happening with this account.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN US AND TEHRAN HAVE STARTED

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

ECB'S PRESIDENT LAGARDE: WE ARE FACING A REAL SHOCK

LAGARDE: THE SHOCK IS PROBABLY BEYOND WHAT WE CAN IMAGINE RIGHT NOW