Viraj Patel

FX & Global Macro Strategist by day | 90s R&B & Hip-Hop DJ by night | Views here are my own | @VandaResearch

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

⚠️ Markets are pricing in the most aggressive front-loaded Fed hiking cycle in modern history. If the Fed delivers 4 consecutive 50bps hikes starting in May... which is starting to get priced in... then this will be more aggressive than what we saw in '94. History being made $USD

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

Assuming a Tottenham fan is in charge of Bloomberg New this weekend 🤓

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

Me trying to prompt Claude in a meeting 🤓

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

Personal update: I've joined Anthropic. I think the next few years at the frontier of LLMs will be especially formative. I am very excited to join the team here and get back to R&D. I remain deeply passionate about education and plan to resume my work on it in time.

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

3 at the back. 2 holding midfielders and big striker up top 🤓

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 BREAKING: Wes Streeting will meet with Keir Starmer tomorrow to ask how he plans to “get us out of this mess”

[@thetimes]

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

Hiking rates when unemployment is rising can only go one way… hard to be bullish European risk assets in a stagflationary environment $EUR

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

They went straight to “Automatic Decline Offer”. Didn’t even give a “Counteroffer” or “Best Offer” option 🤓

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

*ECB'S GUINDOS: KEY FOR JUNE WILL BE WHETHER HORMUZ HAS REOPENED

Updated Taylor Rule for policy rates ... 🤓 $EUR

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

Yentervention again… USD/JPY spec longs hit on the counter attack by Japan’s MoF. Our estimates has USD/JPY positioning clean once again down in the low 150s $JPY

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

⚠️ Starting to see the 'stag' and the 'flation'. Higher ISM manf prices paid, lower employment. Spread between prices paid & employment has only been higher on 6 occassions since the 1970s: '74, '79/80, '94, '08, '21. 3 out of 5 were recessions $USD

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

BoE watchers will now spend the rest of 2026 talking in terms of Scenarios A vs. B vs. C $GBP

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

⚠️ Clearest sign of UK labour slack is private sector wage growth - which fell to 2.8% YoY (lowest since Covid). Lagging the sharp fall in V/U ratio. Headline drop in UER looks noisy but in keeping with 'less bad' high-freq jobs data. This isn't data that's BoE hike worthy $GBP

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

Equity bulls 🤓

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

⚠️ 3rd largest MoM increase in German Wholesale prices since 1970. Nicht Gut. $EUR

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

Analyst #4 trying to write a note this week…. 🤓

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

Consumers filling up their cars this weekend

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

Policy Mistake Vibes… 🤓

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

⚠️ UK single-month unemployment fell to 4.9% in Jan driven by seasonal uptick in hiring. Doesn’t mask 3M average running at 5.2%, close to BoE’s peak forecast. Softer hiring in Feb, higher layoffs, falling inactivity means net supply rising. This is pulling wage growth lower $GBP

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

⚠️ Higher for longer dots. But slightly more dovish than market expectations - especially as option tails had greater odds of a hike vs. cut over next year. But no FOMC officials a hike plausible this year. At the same time one official nudged up their R*. Sell rates vol $USD

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

⚠️ Inflation may have to go up first... before it comes down. If you believe in the lead/lag of ISM services prices paid and core PCE
$USD

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

We see retail driving this move (on track to buy the most of this stock on record)

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

Today it's logistics companies that are getting crushed by the AI scare trade.

But here's what's weird. The company that announced the new AI freight product is not some advanced AI lab. It's some Florida-based penny stock that sells karaoke machines.