Vishal

Then - A digital guy... Now - A student of the equity markets. #Invest "only for myself" using #DataScience #AI & #ML. Always - A tech geek. No recos here.

[Vishal @VSam82]

@HughE_Dillon Isn't it easier to source a batmobile vs an elephant :)

[Vishal @VSam82]

@airindia Still waiting for your confirmation? Has the ticket been cancelled and refund issued?

[Vishal @VSam82]

Dear @airindia so u randomly cancel the flight and change the itinerary to another one. Then change my business Flex ticket for that flight to business. And then when I want to cancel you say non-refundable? How does that work? Please cancel my booking. I'll fly SQ.

[Vishal @VSam82]

@airindia Replied thanks

[Vishal @VSam82]

@airindia I have replied. Please cancel the ticket and issue a refund. The new flight time does not suit us.

[Vishal @VSam82]

@airindia Sent

[Athena @Athena_Slays]

IBM just pre-announced a brutal quarter and told you exactly why: in the last weeks of June, clients diverted their budgets to stockpile servers, storage and memory, locking in supply before prices rise.

Read that again. IBM lost sales because customers are hoarding the memory trade.

Everyone keeps asking if the memory boom is over. IBM's own miss just answered it. The demand is so hot it's cannibalizing everything else. $MU $STX $WDC

[Vishal @VSam82]

@_prashantnair They don't have any compute to rent. It was a story which they never confirmed. The stock gave back too.

[Vishal @VSam82]

@satyanadella @Microsoft They won't go to zero. They're cash rich, cheap, embedded with clients. Someone still has to untangle a Fortune 500's legacy mess.

But the survivors will sell outcomes and IP, not bodies. IBM made that turn years ago, from hours to a platform.

[Vishal @VSam82]

Satya Nadella @satyanadella said something last week that should worry Indian IT. Unfortunately, almost nobody here is talking about it.

His point: AI models are becoming a commodity. The moat isn't the model. It's the compute underneath and the data on top.

[Vishal @VSam82]

@satyanadella @Microsoft Yet most Indian IT commentary is still "AI makes our engineers 30% more productive, great for margins."

That's the denial. A business measuring a tailwind while standing in front of a substitution.

[Athena @Athena_Slays]

Is Warsh a dove in hawk's clothing?

Everyone called today's comments dovish. Here's what's actually happening, because it's more interesting than that.

On paper, this Fed is hawkish. At the June meeting the dot plot flipped from cuts to a HIKE, the median now sees rates ending the year at 3.8%, above where they sit today, and they raised their own inflation forecast to 3.6%. The market took the hint: it's pricing in essentially zero cuts for the year, and July actually carries a bigger chance of a hike than a cut.

So the market isn't over-excited about cuts. It's priced for none.

But the ground is shifting under the Fed's feet. Oil is down about 20% as Iranian supply comes back. Trump is pushing for lower gasoline prices. And today, for the first time, Warsh cracked the door on the idea that AI could be deflationary. Three disinflation forces, none of which the Fed controls.

Here's why that matters. When a market is positioned for hikes and disinflation actually shows up, the repricing is violent, because cuts get added to a curve that expects none. That is exactly why gold, silver, bitcoin and small caps all jumped today on a single comment. The asymmetry now favors the dovish side, not because Warsh turned dovish, he hasn't, but because expectations are so low there is nowhere to go but up.

You can already see it starting in the tape. The rate-sensitive trade is turning first, led by financials ( $XLF ), with gold ( $GLD ), silver ( $SLV ) and bitcoin ( $BTC ) catching the dovish bid, and it's early, not the crowded, extended AI names.

The tell to watch: the next inflation print, and whether Warsh leans harder into the AI-deflation argument at the July meeting. If he does, the pivot is on.

We rank 1,700 stocks every day. This weekend we'll stick our necks out with exactly where we'd position and our cut-count odds. Follow along.

[Athena @Athena_Slays]

Is the AI memory boom over?

Honest answer: nobody knows, and anyone telling you they're sure is selling something. But here's what got lost in this week's panic.

The numbers are still absurd. $MU just printed a record quarter, guided revenue UP to ~$50B, said it's sold out of AI memory for the year, and roughly seventeen firms raised their price targets the next morning. The analysts who cover this don't see profits peaking until around 2027.

So why did the stocks get hit? Two reasons, and neither one is "demand died."

One: a record quarter got SOLD. When the best possible news can't lift a stock, the good news was already in the price. That's how tops get tested.

Two, and this is the part to sit with: the scary headlines overstate it. $WDC and Seagate $STX fell off a cliff in our rankings this week. Both are still up more than 200% on the year. A 20% pullback after a 200%+ run is a stock catching its breath, not a story ending.

The discipline: the short-term trend is down, so don't be a hero trying to catch it. But don't confuse a violent pullback in a parabolic name with the end of the cycle. A pause is not a peak. We just don't get to know which one this is yet.

[Vishal @VSam82]

@gotravelyourway Warm crew - @airindia and @SingaporeAir hands down. Emirates is a hit and miss. Sometimes exceptional and sometimes cold.

[Vishal @VSam82]

The AI impact that our IT companies are still in denial about.

[Athena @Athena_Slays]

Accenture just fell 18% on earnings. This isn't an Accenture problem. It's the whole IT-services model breaking.

Where the consulting and outsourcing names sit in our 1,700-stock ranking today: $ACN #1,389, $EPAM #1,443, $IT (Gartner) #1,403, $GLOB #1,359, $INFY #1,307, $CTSH #1,284, $G #1,270. The entire group is in the bottom 15%.

Six months ago several of these were leaders. $CTSH was #16. $EPAM was our #1 ranked stock. $ACN was #279. They've fallen to the basement.

Why? They sell human hours: consultants, offshore developers, back-office labor. AI compresses exactly that. The market is repricing the labor-arbitrage model in real time.

The one holding up is $IBM (#695), which sells software and AI, not headcount.

AI is the picks and shovels for some. For the middlemen who sell hours, it's the wrecking ball.

To be clear, this isn't a dip to buy. It's reinvent-or-bleed. Until one of these names proves it sells software instead of hours, like $IBM did, the whole group is a falling knife.

[Athena @Athena_Slays]

This is 2008. @elonmusk , nearly broke and one failure away from losing everything, crouched on the floor staring at the wreckage of another rocket that didn't make it.

18 years later, he became the world's first trillionaire.

When people say the market is betting on the man, this is the man they mean. $SPCX

[Vishal @VSam82]

Lol @hdfcmf you want to get my 110 year old grandmother (if she was alive today that is) to start a sip? Atleast run an intelligent SQL query against your DB instead of spamming randomly.

Clearly your teams are unfamiliar with AI.

[Vishal @VSam82]

@connectgurmeet Thats a 1950 socialist philosophy. Let the currency weaken to protect exports. Absolute BS. We have no exports to speak of. A weakening rupee is making 99% of the country poorer.