Vanda Insights

Oil markets macroanalysis. Credible. Consistent. Concise. Email us: [email protected]

[Vandana Hari @VandanaHari_SG]

And a mathematics check!

Even IF 19 mil bbl did indeed flow out on Monday (highly doubtful) that’s not equal to a flow rate of 19 mil b/d!

[Arsenio Dominguez @IMOSecGen]

After months of distress for thousands of #seafarers, we will finally begin the implementation of the evacuation plan in #StraitofHormuz. This large-scale operation will be carried out in close cooperation with Iran, Oman, coastal States,the US & industry. https://t.co/tSG25vfBI1

[Vandana Hari @VandanaHari_SG]

Same statement, varying interpretations.

👉 Some see this as laying the groundwork for some sort of monetising of the Strait of Hormuz.

👉 Others see it as a more inclusive effort by Iran and Oman to work out a protocol acceptable to all regional actors and the international community, implying little to no monetisation.

Tehran has repeatedly said in recent weeks that the Strait will not return to its pre-war status.

My thoughts: If it is not about monetising the waterway in some shape or form, why bother? Would Tehran, needing to focus on getting its economic engine back on track, be spending time and effort on altruistic pursuits to ensure smooth passage in return for nothing?

[Vandana Hari @VandanaHari_SG]

Yes, India went after any and all sources of LPG to offset the losses from PG.

The test of rewired flows is whether it reverts to the pre-war suppliers as SoH normalises. I expect it will.

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🚨 The Hormuz crisis isn't over because ships are moving again.

The hard part is clearing the backlog.

Phillips 66 CEO Mark Lashier said Tuesday it will take time for crude to clear the Strait of Hormuz, even as limited passage resumes and prices ease lower.

Between 90 million and 100 million barrels of crude remain trapped in the strait, and they'll only work out slowly.

The bottleneck isn't the water, it's the tanks. "Most of the tanks on shore are full before crude can appreciably ramp up," Lashier said.

You need room to place the barrels first.

He credited an efficient market response with keeping crude from hitting $200, including SPR releases and low inventories at Cushing.

But those cushions were temporary.

The SPR draw and the Cushing buffer don't come back for free.

The line that matters for traders: "There's going to be some structural shift in what the crude floor is."

The price won't simply settle back to where it started.

Phillips 66 itself rode it out on North American crude, running refineries at "extraordinary rates" and using Jones Act waivers to move barrels coast to coast.

Watch the onshore tank levels, not just the tanker count.

The 90-100 million barrel overhang clears only as fast as storage opens up.

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

The International Maritime Organization said it has received safety guarantees that could allow hundreds of ships to exit the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, as it seeks to evacuate thousands of seafarers.

The operation will be carried out in cooperation with Iran, Oman, all other coastal states in the region, the US and the maritime industry, shipping’s global regulator said in a statement. The plan involves stranded seafarers leaving the Middle East on their ships, meaning an armada of vessels will exit the Persian Gulf through the strait, an IMO spokesperson said.
https://t.co/HsH7Zsx8qE

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 Israel is suddenly acting restrained, and the reason is simple: Trump already delivered the private threats.

Fmr. CIA Analyst Larry Johnson says Trump told Israel to stop and made clear what could happen next: pulled systems, halted intelligence sharing, withheld aid, or all of it at once.

"And if they do break out of this ceasefire again, they run the real risk that Iran will retaliate at a time when the United States is not in place."

@newsonof

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

I'm going to say this as nicely as I can... To the absolute MORONS screaming for Washington to amend General License X by adding an escrow mechanism...

What WORLD are you living in? In what world do you think Iran would freely agree to tie up months of oil revenues into accounts controlled by the United States instead of just... selling to China like they normally do, and keep the revenues AND the control...

How STUPID do you think the Iranian's are? I get that you WANT the escrow mechanism... but it's INSANE to try and act like that's going to happen with the MOU remaining intact.

[Julianne Geiger @JuliOnTwtr]

BUCKLE UP!
API Inventory Moves 06/23

Crude -765,000
Gasoline +1.238 million
Distillates +1.447 million
Cushing -982,000 (estimated level around 19.1 million)

SPR -9.1 million (lowest level in more than 40 years)

#oott #crudeoil #gasoline #api

[Sulaiman Ahmed @ShaykhSulaiman]

JUST IN: IRAN’S GHALIBAF ON FROZEN ASSETS:

“Regarding the release of frozen assets, under Clause 11, two separate amounts of $6 billion each were to be released.

The necessary steps had already been taken during the trip to Qatar, but the final signature had to be completed during the Switzerland trip, which has now been done.”

[Vandana Hari @VandanaHari_SG]

Notice what is missing in the joint statement?

No mention of Israel. It's like peace in Lebanon can be achieved simply with agreements between the US, Iran and Hezbollah.

[Vandana Hari @VandanaHari_SG]

The US OFAC is yet to publish the waivers on Iranian oil and petrochemical exports promised under the MoU.

Araghchi, in his post below, appears confident the waivers are in place.

The US has kept Iran waiting on the waivers despite the MoU coming into force with the digital signing by presidents Trump and Pezeshkian last Wednesday.

The US observed the Juneteenth public holiday on Friday. But Treasury did have two days before that to issue the waivers. Let's see if they come through today.

That will be as much a test of the MoU falling into place rather than falling apart as peace in Lebanon.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇺🇸🇶🇦 This is BRUTAL. Vance flew to Geneva for the Iran talks and the Qatari minister just flat out refused to greet him

The Geneva talks are already suspended, Iran walked out of the photo-op, and now Vance is standing there with an outstretched hand and nobody taking it.

The most powerful country on earth is having a very bad day in Switzerland.

Source: McGill Media on YT / Writer: Oliver

[Trita Parsi @tparsi]

It appears the Iranians left the talks over Trump's Twitter threats.

It's a reminder that the next 60 days will be a VERY bumpy ride. Walk-outs, no-shows, rescheduled talks, and plenty of other theatrics - legitimate or not.

Expect nothing else. It's part of negotiations.

[Babak Vahdad @BabakVahdad]

Tasnim quotes an informed source who recapped the day’s developments at the Geneva talks.

Main points:

- The Iran-US negotiations in the four-party format began at approximately 15:00.

- After about one and a half hours, the talks were suspended for a 30-minute break to allow consultations among the delegations. However, due to what were described as Trump’s threatening and offensive remarks, the Iranian delegation refused to return to the negotiations in the four-party format.

- Despite this, mediation efforts by Qatar and Pakistan continued, and messages continued to be exchanged through the intermediaries.

- The mediators’ efforts are still ongoing.

- During the four-party meeting, the Iranian delegation explicitly protested what it described as violations of commitments, particularly Clause 1 of the Memorandum of Understanding.

- The Iranian delegation also called for faster implementation of US commitments regarding:

1. the release of frozen Iranian assets;
2. the issuance of waivers and authorizations allowing Iranian oil exports to resume.
3. On the nuclear issue, the Iranian delegation reiterated that any negotiations on the nuclear file remain conditional on US implementation of its obligations under Clauses 1, 4, 10 and 11 of the Memorandum (clause 5 not mentioned).

- apparently the Iranian side appears to be focusing its demands on implementation issues, particularly frozen assets, oil exports, and compliance with earlier commitments, while maintaining that discussion of the nuclear file cannot begin until those obligations are fulfilled.

#Iran

[The Iranian Letter @TheIranianzg3z]

BREAKING: Iran has reportedly informed mediators that its delegation will not return to the Switzerland talks unless President Trump personally apologizes for his latest remarks and Israel fully withdraws from southern Lebanon, according to Al Mayadeen.

The reported demands come amid a sharp deterioration in the negotiating atmosphere, with Tehran arguing that recent U.S. statements and developments in Lebanon have undermined the conditions needed for diplomacy to move forward.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨BREAKING:

🇶🇦 Powerful explosion reported at Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar’s largest gas facility.

The blast was so strong it was felt like an earthquake and heard in Bahrain.

Cause unknown. No injuries or leaks reported so far.

Source: Yediot News, bintjbeilnews / Writer: Samuel

[Nader Itayim | ‌‌نادر ایتیّم @ncitayim]

NEW: 🇮🇷 #Iran has established the 'Persian Gulf Insurance Company' exclusively for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Just yday, 24 policies were issued for this route, according to the head of Iran's Central Insurance company [Bimeh Markazi].
https://t.co/w6maoKRaGn

[Vandana Hari @VandanaHari_SG]

This is what happens when you try to “implement” a vague MoU — Interpretations can vary!

The MoU committed the US, Iran *and their allies* to a complete end to war on all fronts, including Lebanon.

Iran is now demanding Israel fully withdraw from Lebanon.

This sets the tone for the next 60 days.
“Do this … or the Strait of Hormuz will be shut again.”

I wonder how Washington hopes to negotiate a nuclear deal with virtually no bargaining chips.

[Vandana Hari @VandanaHari_SG]

Trump says NO TOLLS EVER in the Strait of Hormuz except if imposed by the United States of America.