The news that Iran has pulled the rug from under the negotiations currently has not truly shaken things up today, and we should probably expect Trump to talk to Israel shortly. We will have to see if Iran actually goes ahead and uses its leverage over the Red Sea, via the Houthis as well. We doubt it, since it is the last card they have, but it is a scenario that is in play, and basically the only scenario that I fear.
Macro Podcast Palooza (May 2026 Edition)
I don’t hear/see it all, but I surely listen to a ton of podcasts...
A list of some insightful podcasts… See below...👇
We're 100% in a Bubble... But...
https://t.co/oUK3LwjX1V
@DanielTNiles & @RiskReversal
Jeremy Grantham on why this market will fall by 50% but nobody will warn you
https://t.co/z36LBWXDzm
Jeremy Grantham & Behind the Balance Sheet
Perfect Storm Of Troubles Is Brewing
https://t.co/6jNQR5jNBA
@jam_croissant & @thoughtfulmoney
The AI Boom Is Headed For A Reckoning
https://t.co/PD7xdlmGBZ
@AswathDamodaran & @profgalloway & @edels0n on @ProfGMarkets
The Bond Market Is Flashing Danger — And AI Is A Bubble
https://t.co/UXoRdndRuM
@jessefelder & @maggielake
Stray Reflections: A conversation with Grant Williams
https://t.co/JjIHutZV4U
@jsmian & @ttmygh
How Demographics Will Break the Bond Market
https://t.co/AKf2FuvJ3Q
@kofinas & Manoj Pradhan
Former BIS Chief Economist Reveals Why Central Banks Trapped Themselves https://t.co/FD0hF41wYp
William White & @alexejjordanov
He Wrote the Papers Finance Didn't Want to Hear
https://t.co/lknn65T5Wi
Cliff Asness & @excessreturnpod
🔔 I'm grateful for each opportunity to educate alongside my brother, @adamtaggart. Few things create more joy in my life than helping families on Main Street compound wealth. Enjoy! 💜
Dan Loeb started Third Point with $3 million. it's now $24 billion across hedge funds, credit, insurance, and venture.
early in his career at Jefferies, the Drexel Burnham bankruptcy produced a disclosure document 3-4 inches thick. it got passed around the desk. nobody could crack the code on it.
"i was relatively new and i knew i had to differentiate myself. so i just spent a whole weekend studying this thing."
it turned out to be one of the best investments in the history of bankruptcies. claims were overstated. assets were understated. but it was so complicated that nobody bothered to do the work.
that's the entire game. just being willing to do the work that nobody else wants to do on the thing that nobody else wants to read.
the full interview is worth your time, 30 years of lessons compressed into one conversation.
Dan on why semis, cap equipment, and hyperscalers are the most attractive sector in the market, and why Nvidia is still cheap:
"The SOXX is up 40%. I don't think I've ever seen an event like that.
You can still buy Nvidia –– maybe the multiple's slightly higher right now –– at 15 times '27, 12 times '28 for the most dominant, very fast-growing company at its size.
I looked through our whole semis, cap equipment, and hyperscaler portfolio.
My instinct was we've gotta take profits here. But I looked at the valuations and the growth rates.
Unless you think the AI world is going to roll over in 2031 or 2032, it's the most attractive sector.
It's where the bulk of our capital is invested."
My conversation with @DanielSLoeb1, his first ever podcast and one I've been wanting to do for years.
Dan started Third Point in 1995 with $3 million. Today the firm manages over $24 billion across equities, credit, venture, and insurance.
Along the way he wrote some of the most iconic activist letters.
We discuss:
- Why deep value stopped working
- The power of writing
- The Twitter and XAI credit trades
- Lessons from FTX and Danaher
- The Sony and Sotheby's stories
- What makes a great analyst today
- The importance of kindness
I feel lucky we all get to learn from one of the greats.
Enjoy!
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
2:48 Macro Views and Tech Trends
5:13 The Roots of Third Point
10:30 Evolving to Quality and Thematic Investing
19:07 Market Psychology and Inefficiencies
24:10 Good and Bad Corporate Governance
29:19 Activism
31:23 Sotheby's
41:37 AI
44:28 Sony
52:50 Danaher's Operating System
56:31 Building an Insurance Business
59:25 FTX
1:05:17 What Makes a Great Analyst Today
1:07:24 The Next Decade
1:10:00 Kindest Thing
Very strong pitch for Galaxy Digital $GLXY, in my opinion one of the most undervalued AI data center stocks. I believe that once the market sees what they are sitting on (=later this year) the stock could easily double.
Introducing Claude Opus 4.8: it builds on Opus 4.7 with sharper judgment, more honesty about its own progress, and the ability to work independently for longer than its predecessors.
Available today at the same price.
The United States Government will not tolerate any effort to impose a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz. Oman, in particular, should know that the U.S. Treasury will aggressively target any actors involved - directly or indirectly - in facilitating tolls for the Strait and any willing partners will be penalized. All nations should reject outright any efforts by Iran to disrupt the free flow of commerce. Tehran’s days of terrorizing the region and the world are over.
Breaking news: Trump administration officials have pressed the Bureau of Engraving and Printing to design a $250 bill featuring the president’s portrait, in what would be the first appearance of a living person on U.S. currency in more than 150 years. https://t.co/S8sqdKSB7i
MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend & @PatrickCeresna welcome, Dr. Pippa Malmgren @DrPippaM & Jim Bianco @biancoresearch. They’ll discuss whether AI and Robotics are going to take our jobs, Nuclear Fusion, Disappearing Scientists, and much more. https://t.co/u9agStOHXW
Processed foods are an AMAZING feat of technological progress and radical abundance!!
They are also poisonous.
Now we're told "AI is the FUTURE of intelligence!!" as we watch brains wither in their skulls.