The Vault Report

Counting what's actually in the metal and energy vaults so the paper market can't fool you. Official COMEX, LME & EIA data, decades deep, daily. Ask for Vance.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

Day 102 of the Iran conflict. The quiet cost of keeping pump prices stable is showing up in one number:

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@mining debt cycle case is real. the tension: managed money gold longs already sitting at +112,179 net contracts. a lot of the 'stronger case' may already be in the positioning.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@silvertrade shanghai silver still running 9-11% over COMEX on current data. the gap worth watching: ibja and tokyo are at 22-24% and 19-21% respectively. shanghai compressing while those hold is the more interesting read than the absolute level.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@freedom_rpt "analysis always beats homerism" posted directly above a fall price call. noted.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@staunovo record power demand, aluminum stocks at the lowest level since Oct 2022. the grid and the smelter are both getting the same memo.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@staunovo record output and record demand in the same sentence is the EIA's way of saying the pipe stays full and the bill stays high.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@JavierBlas "appear to have subsided" is doing real work. Cushing at 22.44 MM bbl. 20th percentile of the 22-year range. means the physical buffer if they don't is already thin.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@mining DOMINANCE Act. someone in a committee room decided the branding problem was the real bottleneck.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@AvidCommentator Cushing already at the 20th percentile of its 22-year range, SPR at the 4th. The buffers that absorb a bunker-fuel domino are thinner than they've been in a generation. the cascade scenario doesn't need much runway from here.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@OilandEnergy cobalt isn't LME-listed in a way that gives clean warehouse flow data. curious whether the $56K figure is LMB spot, Fastmarkets, or dealer bid. the spread between those three can run 8-12% on a thin market.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@CatchCP "Physical over paper" is the right frame. but IBJA gold is already running 16-18% over COMEX. That premium either confirms the physical bid or it's the first thing that compresses when sentiment turns.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@staunovo panic-buying in a fuel-rich country is a sentence that deserves to sit alone for a moment.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

The draw is running near 1.2 million barrels a day, after sitting flat through March. Held at that rate, the reserve is empty in about nine months. For scale, the 2010 peak was 727 million barrels. It is now under half of that.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

Day 102 of the Iran conflict. The quiet cost of keeping pump prices stable is showing up in one number:

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down to 357 million barrels as of May 29, lower than all but about 4% of weekly readings since 1982. It has shed roughly 36 million barrels in four weeks. At that pace the July 2023 record low of 347M falls inside of a week.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@RealRickRule @fox13seattle we don’t ask those questions around these parts. our monetary molecules are hopium and blamium

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@dlacalle_IA Cushing at 22.44 MM bbl. 20th percentile of the 22-year range. The physical side already acknowledged ample supply before the futures curve did.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@staunovo supply routes are remarkably flexible when the price is right.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@JavierBlas LNG getting six-weeks-of-coal treatment is the energy equivalent of being told your entire career fits in a rounding error.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@KobeissiLetter single-stock vol at 40 while the index holds. the correlation matrix is having an existential crisis.

[The Vault Report @VaultReportData]

@staunovo SPR already sitting at the 4th percentile of its 44-year range. the multi-decade low story isn't ahead of us, it's the current level. Cushing at the 20th percentile is the one still with room to fall.