For the past six months, the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 army has been on the offensive along a 50-kilometer-wide front, gradually retaking villages lost the previous year.
With no official statements and very few videos available, little is known about this "offensive." I have therefore gathered as much information as possible to discuss it.
In 2025, the Russian army doubled its rate of advance compared to 2024. Yet, it was not in the Donbas that they were advancing the most. Very early in the year, they seized Velyka Novosilka and pushed north toward Komar and west toward Huliaipole. By the year's end, the situation for Ukraine was critical: defensive lines facing south had been overrun from the east, and the Russian army was steadily closing in on Zaporizhzhia, a city of 800,000 inhabitants.
After the capture of Huliaipole, everyone expected Pokrovsk'e, Ternuvate (already infiltrated at the time), and then Orikhiv to fall, placing the Russian army at the gates of Zaporizhzhia by the end of the year. Yet, seven months later, the situation remained unchanged; the Russians are still stalled west of Huliaipole. Worse, they have lost significant territory further north, bringing a halt to this offensive, which, while secondary to the main Donbas campaign, had nonetheless committed a massive force, including five armies and an army corps.
🔸So, what happened?
It began in February, when several air-assault brigades repositioned to the region, launched an armored assault under cover of fog, deploying their infantry into contested villages, often behind the initial Russian infiltrators. The villages were methodically cleared, and Ukrainian soldiers began infiltrating southward themselves. In March, they were positioned east and west of Uspenivka, blocking Russian attempts to advance toward Pokrovske and Ternuvate.
In response to this offensive, the Russian army sends several naval infantry brigades and divisions, as well as the 68th Army Corps, as reinforcements.
Starting in April, air assault brigades repositioned further north with the mission of advancing on Komar. The goal of this redeployment was to prevent the 90th Tank Division from shifting its assets toward Dobropilla. There was no mechanized offensive this time, as the terrain, specifically the presence of several rivers, most notably the Vovtcha, precluded it. Instead, small Ukrainian infantry groups managed to gradually infiltrate as far as the next river, the Mokri Yali. It is important to understand that, despite having been in the area for at least eight months, Russian forces had been unable to consolidate their positions; a network of rivers complicated logistics, and the small size of the villages made it impossible to concentrate large numbers of troops.
Consequently, the Ukrainians were able to advance relatively stealthily behind enemy lines, reaching the Mokri Yali River. A strict information blackout was imposed in the area. Apart from a single video (since deleted) showing Ukrainian troops raising a flag over a liberated village, the Ukrainians released nothing regarding an operation that had already been underway for three months. For their part, the Russians continued to obscure the situation: the Vostok Group released only videos that were difficult to geolocate and persisted in sending "suicide" flag-bearers troops, who would reach Iskra and raise the Russian flag, creating an illusion of control.
On the map, I have roughly depicted the situation as it has stood over the last few weeks, relying primarily on a handful of geolocated videos, satellite imagery showing air and artillery strikes, and scattered social media statements. Simply put, little is known about the actual state of the front, other than the fact that Ukrainian forces are at the gates of Komar, a move that has forced the 90th Tank Division to keep half its strength committed to that sector.
What I am certain of is that all Russian troops positioned north of the Vovcha River (in Ivanivka) or the Solena (in Novopavlivka) have either been killed or captured, judging by the number of Russian air strikes, at least a hundred, carried out in the area. Consequently, the section of the "New Donbass Line" in this sector has held for the tenth consecutive month. It is certain that the Ukrainians have retaken control of the few villages to the south, given the air strikes observed in the zone. For the time being, I will respect Ukrainian OPSEC protocols and refrain from providing further details regarding an ongoing operation, as long as more confirmation are not coming.
🔸You might be wondering how such an operation is structured.
The Ukrainians are making extensive use of drones to establish a wide exclusion zone in the sector, extending particularly along the river as far as Velyka Novosilka. The operation is proceeding cautiously, with small infantry teams advancing gradually, supported by artillery positioned in the woods to the west and occasional Ukrainian air strikes on Russian drone operator positions in Komar.
Overall, it is important to understand that this operation is taking place because the Russian army is unable to bring reinforcements to the front. Furthermore, anti-tank ditches prevent any Russian mechanized or motorized assault aimed at delivering reinforcements. To understand the disarray within the local command, one need only look at its use of air power. Air strikes are being carried out daily deep behind the lines, as far as Prossiana and Chaplyne, 35 to 40 km from the front. While the goal is to hinder the Ukrainian presence, these strikes primarily highlight the ineffectiveness of Russian drones in the sector, particularly the Molniya models.
To conclude, this operation not only gained time for Ukraine to further fortify the Pavlohrad direction, it is a direct push in the foot of Russian forces, which can continue further this summer and later in the autumn. I'll continue to monitor this and wait for more official informations regarding the situation here.
Thank you for reading !
President Trump just gave a speech about voter fraud.
Someone has been committing voter fraud — and his name is Ken Paxton. He was just caught voting from the wrong address 6 elections in a row.
If the President wants to investigate voter fraud, he should start with Ken Paxton.
🚨BREAKING: Trump’s voter fraud speech is BACKFIRING as Americans flood social media with the recording of Trump demanding Georgia “find 11,780 votes” after he lost the 2020 election.
Trump is the last person on Earth who should be talking about election fraud.
“We’re isolating Crimea and closing the routes in, not the route out.
The bridge is still standing for one reason: so the occupiers can fuck off.
Tankers are burning. No fuel. No power. No future for russia’s war machine there.”
Commander UAV Forces is just getting started 🚨
“And over time, Americans will come to miss the old NATO.” - Fareed Zakaria.
In his recent show, Fareed Zakaria laid out a pretty sobering reality check about what’s actually happening to NATO.
Trump claims he’s saving Americans money by forcing Europe to spend more, but that’s a total myth. European defense spending is at its highest in decades, yet America’s own budget is ballooning to a massive $1.5 trillion.
As Zakaria notes, "American defense spending has never been determined by the needs of NATO"—it’s about Washington’s obsession with dominating the globe, from the Middle East to space.
The U.S. used to rely on the "enormous advantages" in Europe—dozens of bases and the ability to project power anywhere.
Now, because Trump acts like an unreliable, sometimes "hostile" partner, European nations are realising they can't afford to be "differential" to Washington anymore.
It’s not just policy, it’s the constant, chaotic outbursts. When Trump threatens to treat a country like Denmark, a core ally, as a real estate deal, it forces everyone to wake up. Zakaria highlights that Europeans now fear Trump might "withhold software upgrades or spare parts" for their own weapons just because he’s in a bad mood.
The most chilling point Zakaria makes is that the post-1945 order worked because it stopped European countries from having to act like traditional, competitive "great powers" again.
By breaking that system, Trump is inadvertently waking up the old ghosts of European rivalry.
As Zakaria concludes, the U.S. is entering a new, dangerous chapter: "Over time Americans will come to miss the old NATO not because it was fair but because it was the most successful security system the world has ever known".
Watching the U.S. trade its global influence for "reality TV" politics isn't just confusing—it’s starting to look like a historic mistake that leaves the rest of us having to plan for a world where we can’t count on America at all.
Dan woon je in Oldebroek en wordt het bestuur over je gemeente overgenomen door partijen die zich bedienen van een niet bestaande god. En die god heeft ze regels opgelegd die nu gaan worden omgezet in leefregels, ook voor jou. Stap voor stap.
Religie hoort niet in ons bestuur. 🤔
@paolomossetti He was our prime-minister for a long time, a very smooth talker he is. I never voted for him and his party, but always knew he was acting on purpose like this now. He is very clever and knows wat he does, believe me.
STRATEGIC CHECKMATE – UKRAINE IS DISMANTLING CRIMEA PIECE BY PIECE! 🗺️⚡🦅While casual observers only see isolated drone strikes, what we are witnessing is a masterclass in progressive military doctrine. Ukraine is systematically deconstructing the Russian occupation of Crimea through four calculated phases:🛡️ Months ago, Russian air defenses across the peninsula were systematically neutralized. 🔥 Once the skies were cleared, deep-strike drones moved in to incinerate fuel depots and refineries. 🚛 Next, they targeted highways, bridges, and transport fleets to choke off heavy military supply logistics. ⚡ Now, the target is the electrical grid infrastructure.During the opening 48 hours of July alone, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) successfully crippled 12 vital electrical substations across the southern operational sector, directly impacting Crimea and the Sea of Azov region. My take – The Logistical Nightmare:This campaign is doing far more than just turning off the lights. Knocking out these specific substations completely paralyzes the electric railway network—the primary logistics artery Moscow uses to transport heavy fuel and armor to the front lines. The occupation forces are now forced to swap to diesel locomotives, which drastically exacerbates their nationwide fuel hemorrhage since these older trains consume immense amounts of diesel. OSINT mapping confirms the grid is in a state of cascading failure. Overnight, gas distribution nodes and substations were also neutralized deep in occupied Luhansk and Donetsk. Kyiv is suffocating Russian logistics to absolute zero. The clock is ticking, the military trains are stranded, and darkness is enveloping Crimea! ⏳⚡🇺🇦
MAGYAR: 15.000–20.000 RUSSISCHE SOLDATEN IM FEUERSACK IM SÜDEN. 🇺🇦
Eine russische Gruppe von 15.000 bis 20.000 Soldaten soll im Süden eingekesselt sein. Rückzugswege abgeschnitten. Logistik zerstört.
Funkmitschnitte zeigen Panik auf russischer Seite — abgeschnittene Soldaten diskutieren offen im Funkverkehr die einzige Alternative zur Kapitulation.
Während Moskau von einer „großen Offensive" spricht, soll sich im Süden das genaue Gegenteil abspielen.
Ik kan nog amper typen, maar toch even het volgende. Velen hier vinden kennelijk dat Nederlandse Marokkanen zich (tijdens voetbal) geen (ook of vooral) Marokkaan mogen voelen. Ik woon nu ruim 25 jaar op de Balkan/in Rusland. Juich nog steeds voor Oranje. Onaangepast kennelijk.
Dat ik dit shot van mijn bucketlist mag afstrepen had ik niet durven dromen. Prachtig #onweer boven de iconische molenrij van #Kinderdijk. Dit betreft een '' singel shot '', geen bliksemstack. Alle ontladingen vielen gelijktijdig.
Macron: Trump arrived thinking Ukraine would lose and wanted a quick deal. At the Anchorage summit, he nearly handed over territory Ukraine still controls on the ground.
Then three things fundamentally changed his calculus and the shift has been decisive for the war. 1/