I asked ChatGPT to do some math on investing in index funds through your 401K (with a company match) vs investing in Bitcoin.
The results were shocking 🧵
How to Jump Higher While Reducing Knee Pain
Despite reaching my 20s having never dunked, with major knee problems, I now dunk easily at 33, with no knee problems in many years, and confidence I will jump even higher by age 40.
Here is exactly how…
The Bull case of a normal #bitcoin 4-Year Cycle. If it follows prior Cycles AND how it's trended in this cycle.
Caveat - this is simply trend following and outlines a repeat cycle performance. Will cover this in an upcoming new 4yr cycle video.
New Weekly Cycle starts end of this month, peaks in May/June. Final weekly cycle (to the top) starts Aug to final peak Oct-Dec for a 35-36 month high.
The four main Weekly Cycles this 4yr cycle have consistently moved 90-100% from low to high, with 20% pullbacks, except Mar/Sep '24 -30% decline, which was the MIDpoint event of the 4 yr cycle.
The chart below shows
a) repeat structure of prior 4 year cycles (i.e top around 35 months)
b) two more weekly cycles of around 90% gain cycle low to high.
c) Comfortably respects the trend-line of this cycle within the time-period.
Is this a guarantee? hell no. The last cycle fell short of a final extension, as an example. But it has good probability as it's rooted in following a trend and pattern over the current 4yr cycle and the prior 14 yr period.
This 2-year crypto bull market has been very simple, but most people screw it up...
- It's mostly been a BITCOIN market, except for a handful of alts that out-performed BTC in the short-run
- The "memecoin supercycle" BS was designed for exit liquidity and to create bag holders
- Most alts are in a BEAR market again, after a brief ~30 day alt season
So, everything I've been preaching for years still holds true:
- Trade alts to accumulate bitcoin & other non-crypto quality assets
- Memecoin cult members will lose everything
- "Diversification" in crypto is a fool's game
- 95% of traders will lose to 5% of pros
- 99% of alts will eventually go to ZERO
So stack sats, trade alts to increase fiat capital buckets, don't believe the bullshit, and adopt an adversarial mindset because everybody's trying to steal from you.
@BobLoukas Love your 60 day cycle posts, it's something I'd love to learn more about. Do you have any resources that you can point me to? Thank you so much!
One of my favorite tax strategies in crypto is called Tax Loss Harvesting.
Bookmark and like this post to come back to it later.
Let me explain.
If you are holding altcoins that got nuked -99% in previous years (like $Luna, $FTT, $UST, $OXY, etc) then selling now before years end can help offset gains made from this bull market cycle.
Example:
You put $200,000 (your basis) into $LUNA at $100.
The value is currently $10,000.
If you sell now, you can realize a -$190,000 loss on that trade.
If you made $200,000 on something else this cycle, then the total profits will be $10,000 that you will have to pay taxes on.
This is why I never sell right away if I am holding onto an altcoin and instead hold for bull markets for when I can use tax loss harvesting to help lower my tax burden.
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ADVICE FROM A HALF-CENTURY FUTURES MARKET TRADER
Is your desire to trade futures for a living? Here are XX things you must understand to make it
1 of 23
Thread to follow ⬇️⬇️🧵🧵
I will give you a tip this has made me incredible amounts of money over the last 6 years of trading crypto.
Now that funding rates are getting a little crazy on some alts, here is your strategy.
On top trending/strength alts, set bids 20-30% lower with limit orders.
There are like fishing hooks you set out to catch some wicks during liquidation events.
I did this on FTX regularly and it works out very well.
When funding is .3-.4%, a flush is inevitable.
It can even dump 30-40% sometimes in a single candle before recovering 70-80% of the wick.