Victor

Everything is cyclical, but sometimes markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

[Victor @Victor75579383]

😂

[川谷 @Ankangla]

据说老黄就是这么沦陷的：一首歌，一部电梯，25 秒。

[Victor @Victor75579383]

TRUE

[Mistery @wr0789]

【真正的大额收益，是“抱”出来的，而不是频繁交易出来的】

短期市场的涨跌节奏很难把握，今天追涨，明天杀跌，看似每天都有交易机会，实际上很容易陷入频繁试错、反复止损的循环。

真正成熟的交易者，不应该把精力放在预测每天的涨跌上，而应该先学会辨别趋势，找到大方向正确的板块和个股，然后耐心等待趋势带来的复利收益。

先选方向，再选个股；方向正确，持有才有意义。

交易逻辑是：优先选择处于大级别上涨趋势中的板块，再从中筛选基本面扎实、走势强于板块和大盘的个股。

当月线、周线形成向上结构，中长期均线逐渐多头排列，股价重心不断抬高，说明市场已经给出了趋势信号。

这时候，与其频繁进出、试图赚取每一次短期波动，不如减少无效操作，尊重趋势，在趋势没有破坏之前耐心持有。

反过来看，如果一个板块或个股的大周期已经走成下降趋势，就要格外谨慎。

比如当下的“硬科技三傻”，如果其月线、周线已经呈现长期走弱的结构，即使中途出现几次反弹，也不意味着大趋势已经反转。

下降趋势中的反弹，赚的是短期波动的钱；上涨趋势中的持有，赚的才是趋势延续的钱。

很多人喜欢在下跌过程中不断抄底，觉得跌得越多，反弹空间就越大。但问题在于，底部不是跌出来的，而是需要市场用时间和价格结构去确认的。

在下降趋势中博弈反弹，往往面临三个问题：

容易被套： 反弹力度有限，趋势却持续向下，买入后很容易再次陷入被动。

占用资金： 资金长期被套牢，真正的强势机会出现时，却没有足够的仓位参与。

浪费时间： 即使最终解套，也可能付出了巨大的时间成本和机会成本。

交易最可惜的，不只是亏损，而是资金和时间都耗在了错误的方向上，眼睁睁错过其他板块的主升行情。

所以，只做趋势确认后的机会。

不恋战下降趋势，只关注大周期向上的板块。

不追逐短期热点，优先选择趋势清晰、相对强势的个股。

不频繁折腾，只要上涨逻辑和趋势结构没有破坏，就耐心持有。

一旦趋势反转，及时退出，不把趋势交易变成死扛。

不要总想着抓住每一次上涨，也不要试图赚到每一分钱。

把有限的资金和精力，集中在大周期向上的板块和个股上。

方向对了，耐心才有价值；趋势对了，持有才有意义。

做交易，最重要的不是有多勤奋，而是始终站在正确的方向上。

[MrBujok @BujokMr]

** IMMINENT STOCK MARKET CRASH OCTOBER 26, 2026-NOVEMBER 9, 2026 **

I am writing this message to give a detailed analysis, as to what I believe will be happening starting Monday October 26, 2026, and the main event to take place the following Monday November 2-3, 2026, with the bottom of the crash coming on November 9. I also want to explain what I believe the Federal Reserve is going to do as a means of trying to fix the crisis, and how it is going to lead to the end of the U.S dollar, bringing about a sovereign debt and currency crisis. This crisis will be the main focal point and issue that the Democratic Party is going to run on in the 26' midterms and the 28' elections, undermining the Republican Party and Donald Trump's populism, and eventually using it to try to usher in Communism, via a World Economic Forum/Black Rock policy and vision.

[Victor @Victor75579383]

😂😂😂

[Ari K @arikuschnir]

🌊💙 WE WERE ALWAYS BLUE

[Venu @Venu_7_]

Before you rush to buy a stock that's down 15-20% after earnings, understand one important rule: The 3-Day Rule!

What is the 3-Day Rule, and why does it matter? Let me explain.

When a stock gaps down sharply after earnings or bad news, wait at least 3 trading days before considering buying.

Why? Large institutions managing millions of shares may need several sessions to reduce their positions. The initial gap down might be just the beginning of the selling pressure.

Day 1: An initial bounce could be driven by short covering and aggressive dip buyers rather than sustained institutional demand.

Days 2 and 3: Selling pressure may continue, and the stock could make new lows as investors reassess the news.

After Day 3: Look for signs that selling pressure is fading and price is beginning to stabilize.

Before buying, check:
- Selling volume is shrinking
- Price is holding above the recent low
- You understand why the stock dropped
- The fundamental thesis remains intact

Remember, three days don't guarantee a bottom. Some stocks need several weeks or even months to build a proper base before beginning another sustained uptrend.

If the business is fundamentally broken, the stock isn't necessarily on sale. It may simply be getting repriced.

The market doesn't reward you for catching the exact bottom. Let the selling pressure fade, let the stock build a base, and let the trend confirm itself.

Missing the bottom is far better than getting caught in a downtrend

[Victor @Victor75579383]

@cnfinancewatch 小学生不忘初心，要均贫富，穷人如何致富太难，但是搞倒富人这个擅长啊！

[Victor @Victor75579383]

@shufen46250836 谷歌是我个股第一重仓。前几个月车子沃尔沃XC90中控系统就改成Gemini 了，好的一点是应用广了，但不得不吐槽Gemini是真的傻，至少目前版本还不如Volvo以前自家的声控好用。

[Victor @Victor75579383]

@LucretianDelta 财不入急门

[Victor @Victor75579383]

New cycle

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

🚨 Everyone is watching the wrong bubble.

And missing the greatest opportunity in 40 years because of it.

While the crowd argues about AI and crypto, the real story is the asset sitting in every "safe" portfolio on earth.

Bonds.

The 1981 top printed 14% yields. The 2020 bottom printed 0%. That was 39 years of falling rates, and it ended in a single Covid panic.

Covid was the turn. Rates hit zero, the system flooded itself with liquidity, and the 40-year bull in bonds quietly ended in the very moment everyone felt rescued.

That's reflexivity in the Soros sense. For four decades, falling yields lifted every asset, which convinced everyone yields would keep falling, which lifted assets again. Belief and reality reinforced each other all the way down to zero. Then the loop turned. And here's the part almost no one has grasped: a turn this big isn't the end of the game. It's the start of a far better one.

Here's why I'm genuinely excited.

For 40 years, falling rates lifted everything together. Correlations converged. The tide carried every boat, so owning the whole ocean beat knowing which boat was seaworthy. Index beat judgment. Skill was a rounding error.

That era is over, and what replaces it is the best environment for active investing in two generations.

When the secular tide reverses, dispersion comes roaring back. Winners and losers split apart violently. Suddenly the things that were invisible for 40 years, valuation, balance-sheet quality, real cash flow, pricing power, decide everything. The gap between the great business and the mediocre one stops being a footnote and becomes the whole return.

This is the world that made Buffett, Lynch, and Templeton. It's the world before 1981, where picking actually paid. It's coming back.

And it arrives at the most lopsided starting line imaginable, which is exactly what makes the opportunity so rich.

Concentration at a record. A handful of names carrying the entire index. Record IPOs listing at peak valuations and getting forced straight into peak index weights through mechanical, price-insensitive buying. The passive bid that everyone treats as ballast has become the marginal price-setter at the worst possible altitude.

JPMorgan's own Guide to the Markets makes the setup clear. Map starting valuation against subsequent ten-year returns, and today's level points to roughly zero percent per year from the S&P over the coming decade.

Sit with that. Zero from the broad index for ten years.

Now flip it over. If the average is zero, the spread around that average is enormous. Some things compound beautifully. Others go nowhere or worse. A flat index for a decade isn't a dead market. It's the richest hunting ground for active investors in living memory, because the distance between right and wrong has never paid more.

The whole architecture of modern investing was engineered for the era that just ended.

- Buy stocks and chill. Built on a discount rate going one direction. Down.
- The 60/40. Built on bonds rallying whenever equities fell.
- Just buy the ETF. Built on a 40-year tailwind no one managing money today has ever seen reverse.

That's the trap. And the mirror image of every trap is an opening for the people who see it first.

Strauss and Howe gave this moment a name. The Fourth Turning. The last of the four cycles, the Crisis, when the institutions built for the old era meet the conditions of the new one. These turns feel like danger to everyone clinging to the last playbook. They are the launchpad for everyone holding the next one.

The tide is turning. The old map is worthless.

And the greatest opportunity of our generation is hiding in plain sight, inside the thing everyone still calls safe.

[Victor @Victor75579383]

加油！💪

[小龙先生 @Dragonhau66]

知名投资基金公司的老板但斌转发了一张图，很有意思。

五种人的一生财富曲线：体力劳动者、脑力管理者、资本积累者、资源掌握者、家庭人脉主导者。

他为什么转发这张图？

因为他自己，就是那条“资本积累者”曲线本身。

早期靠脑力积累本金。中期靠资本复利放大。后期财富增长，几乎完全由资产定价驱动。

但斌是这样。段永平也是这样。

这条曲线最反直觉的地方在于：前20年，几乎贴着地面走。

大多数人根本熬不过这段“死寂期”，就转头回去拼体力了。

但这条曲线的后期斜率，是前两条曲线的指数级碾压。

原因不复杂：
前两条，卖的是时间。
资本曲线，卖的是时间本身。

这张图最容易被误读成“普通人只能认命选一条线”。

但它是配置题，不是选择题。

20到30岁：体力加脑力，积累第一桶金。
30到40岁：资本加资源，开始配置。
40岁之后：资本复利加人脉底盘，逐步接管。

真正拉开差距的，不是你在哪条曲线上。
是你什么时候，开始从“卖时间”，切换到“让资产替你工作”。

这五条曲线，放在交易里，就是五种交易员。

体力型交易员： 每天开单，盯盘12小时，靠次数换钱。
脑力型交易员： 有系统，但还在靠手动执行。
资本型交易员： 有自己的资金池，靠复利，前期看不出效果。
资源型交易员： 能调动别人的信任和资金。
人脉型交易员： 别人愿意跟他一起下单。

大多数人，一辈子只活在前两条曲线里。

而交易员的终极形态，是从“卖时间”，切换到“让资金和信任，替你工作”。

兄弟姐妹们，对号入座看看，你是哪种曲线的人？

[Victor @Victor75579383]

好文，不过中美AI竞争越来越像美苏军备竞争。但最后说不定不是在AI竞争上出胜负，而是如《Why Nations Fail 》里Extractive Nations / 汲取性制度导致社会经济或其他方面先脆断了。

[Shen HU Commodities @SHcmdty]

《美国的AI，或许会滑向一个"类庞氏困境"》

这里要先说清楚：不是"骗局"，而是"困境"。两者的差别在于——前者是主观恶意，后者是客观困局。除非美国在事实上（而不是讲故事层面）搞出了AGI，或者它的模型能力始终保持"断代式领先"，否则这条路径的风险正在积聚。

这个观点背后，其实是一整套关于中美AI生态位、产业资本与金融资本的逻辑推演。

一、美国AI的顶层设计，从DeepSeek出世那天起就"漏了"

先看美国AI战略的原点。

过去几年，美国AI叙事的基本盘是一个"赢者通吃"的假设：美国掌握闭源的、断崖式领先的AI模型，进而掌握未来的智能体时代；通过垄断全球AI能力，重塑供应链，并在智能体时代向全球抽取"AI税"，获得垄断溢价。这个垄断溢价，正是支撑美国资本大规模资本开支的根基——就像《三体》里"智子锁死地球科技"的逻辑，先掌握AGI的一方，有能力限制后来者。

说白了，美国是金融资本，它给AI的定位是未来的"公用事业"，收取的是垄断高价（和它一贯对水电煤等公用事业收垄断高价的调性一致）。

但这个顶层设计，在2025年初DeepSeek横空出世那一刻，就出现了裂缝。到了今年7-8月，中美AI出现一波暴跌，一个重要原因就是：中国模型性能上追平了美国先进模型，价格却只有对方的1/10甚至1/20。垄断定价权一旦被打破，此前给AI的那套系统性高估值，就很难维持了。

二、中美生态位根本对立：你要垄断高价，我要垄断低价
这是整个逻辑里最核心的一环。

美国（金融资本）：追求token/API的垄断高价，靠它反哺前期万亿级资本开支。如果拿不到垄断溢价，那堆资本开支就可能变成债务风险——这就是"类庞氏"的根源。

中国（产业资本）：追求token/API的垄断低价。中国不追求在AI上遥遥领先，只求"死死咬住美国"——半年、一年就能追上美国最先进的模型，让AI成为一种垄断低价的生产要素，反哺整个制造业生态。

这两套目标天然相悖。美国要高价，中国要低价；只要中国能紧跟美国，美国就无法在AI上赚取超额利润——中国的存在，恰恰在加速美国AI的类庞氏化。

这也是为什么美国要不断给AI的故事升维：从AGI一路讲到ASI（超级人工智能），甚至把教皇都搬出来，本质上是在维护"美国AI依然断崖式领先"的叙事，修复强美元逻辑。

三、每一轮科技革命，都要经历"三阶段"

根据英国学者卡罗尔·佩雷斯的《科技革命与金融资本》，复盘人类历史上7-8次科技革命，发现每一轮都必经三个阶段：

大基建时代——金融资本主导，无视成本、大量资本开支；
大调整时代——必然暴跌，金融资本（要垄断高价）与产业资本（要低价）激烈博弈。历史上每一次，都以上游关键基础设施价格暴跌＋资本市场崩盘告终；
大应用时代——上游价格暴跌后，下游应用多点开花。

这里有个关键提醒，要警惕"杰文斯悖论"在中国参与的科技周期里失效。杰文斯悖论讲的是"上游降价→应用爆发→以量补价→上游仍获超额利润"，听着很美。但用光伏做例子就很扎心：中国已经"垄断"了全球光伏组件生产，漫山遍野都是光伏电站，可组件公司呢？Who cares？它们并没有超额利润。因为中国是极致的产业资本，追求的就是垄断低价。

四、落到投资上怎么看？

基于这套逻辑

短期，美国AI资本开支仍可能继续扩张，美国只能一条道走到黑，甚至不排除未来一年内AI链条再来一波暴涨——但如果有，那很可能是最后一波，也可能就此见不到了；

中期风险，今年7月那波调整只是小震荡，不是最后一跌，真正的最后一跌可能在明年，且会非常极致；

这篇文章不是唱空AI，AI一定是未来。它探讨的是：美国的AI资本开支所依赖的那个"垄断高价"前提，还能不能成立？ 在中国追求"垄断低价"的产业逻辑面前，答案似乎越来越不乐观。

当然，这也只是一家之言。AI的未来，从来不是靠谁讲一个更大的故事来决定的，而是由谁能真正把成本打下来、把生态做起来来决定的。从这一点看，这场中美AI的较量，才刚刚进入最有意思的阶段。

[Victor @Victor75579383]

@SYU77996 Happy Birthday

[Victor @Victor75579383]

@jessyshen 副部级子女就都要求回去了

[艾地声Edysen @KA594594]

https://t.co/qes2iEI25s

[CryptoChan 熊猫 @0xCryptoChan]

经受住了历史的检验💪这套自研模型还是😏

[华尔街观察 Xtrader @cnfinancewatch]

股市的危险因素不仅仅是利率：

中期选举才是今年股市最大的不定因素。

假如中期选举共和党落败，

美股这种全面高歌的状态很有可能结束。

原因很简单：民主党是分蛋糕积极；共和党是做大蛋糕积极。

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

So it begins.

Anyway, buy the Dip!

[2 Minute Political IQ @NaturalRightsPr]

Welcome to “Affordable” New York — 2040. A political satire by Raymond Xie, author of Naive Majority: Restoring Political IQ for Everyday Citizens. Get your copy on Amazon (https://t.co/diyBt6LkKN) @Lily4Liberty @XVanFleet @elonmusk @bennyjohnson #NYC #Socialism #Politics

[Victor @Victor75579383]

@mubeitech 受够了加州学校的人造肉