My macro signals for the wider markets have not flipped. I will not indulge in calling tops within 10% of All-time highs without any evidence.
I'm not sure why bears are in such a hurry. If they are right, don't we have the entire bear market ahead of us? You are telling me that you'll are so good at this and know for sure that we have so many new Michael Bury's in the making? Even he gave up this cycle! In three years we shall make a movie about you k?
For now, my system by my standards IS an early warning. The dot com bubble and GFC warnings printed way before retail were aware. So I'm not gonna stress myself until the signals come.
Right now, $RTY for example is still well positioned at the moment.
In case you haven’t paid attention, stocks move based on positioning, or a lack thereof. And NOT b/c of what some people refer to as “fundamentals”. If this is about a stock, then the conversation should be about the stock. The “company” is secondary, and that’s putting it nicely
Whaley Breadth Thrust: Signal Triggers and Performance Statistics
The Whaley Breadth Thrust is a momentum indicator that signals strong market movements and potential bullish trends. It was developed by Wayne Whaley and has very specific conditions that must be met to generate a signal:
Signal Triggers:
The Whaley Breadth Thrust signal is triggered by the following specific thresholds:
Advancing vs. Declining NYSE Stocks: The number of advancing stocks must exceed declining stocks by a ratio of approximately 3-to-1 over a five-day period.
Up and Down Volume: The volume of advancing stocks must exceed the volume of declining stocks by a ratio of 3-to-1.
Absolute Price Increase in the S&P 500: There must be an approximate 2% price increase in the S&P 500 over the same five-day period.
Historical Performance:
The Whaley Breadth Thrust signal is rare but highly significant. Historically, it has been triggered only 12 times from 1970 to 2009. The performance following a Full Thrust signal has been very strong, often indicating a substantial upward move in the market.
Following the Whaley Breadth Thrust signal:
1 Month: Historically, the market has shown significant gains, often in the range of 5-10%.
3 Months: The gains typically continue, with the market often up by around 10-15%.
1 Year: The signal has historically indicated a strong bullish trend, with gains often exceeding 20%.
These performance statistics highlight the robustness of the Whaley Breadth Thrust as an indicator of substantial market uptrends, making it a valuable tool for investors
In summary, the Whaley Breadth Thrust is a powerful indicator for identifying bullish market conditions, with a strong historical track record of predicting substantial market uptrends.
$AMZN
After reading the specifics of the Bezos sales plan it looks like he isn’t selling any shares under $200.
Basically every tick over $200 will need to see buyers to match Jeff’s selling until he’s done. Once that lid comes off the move will be explosive.
$250-$300