Man of the Vig

you can fade me but you cant fade the exchange endgame | business: [email protected]

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

With prediction markets taking over the timeline en mass last week I thought it may be time to break out my longform cap.

Wrote a little on where we are, where we’re going, and the hilarious delusion that is prediction markets twitter at the moment.

https://t.co/rkNt7VmpdG

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

@PlusEVAnalytics Not a Kalshi issue, just need more aggressive MM’s

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

American Gaming Association and Victor Rocha fighting over who can make more bad faith arguments to defend their archaic monopolies instead of trying to compete

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

@musharbash_b Impossible to draw the conclusion of what is a false discount though. Raising markup and discounting more broadly ≠ false discounting.

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

@BigJohn043 Not sure how the DIP lenders thought the SPV & ABL Lenders (all of whom are likely underwater post admin/pro fees) fighting over existing WC assets and future cash payments wouldn’t crash this thing before exit. Literally impossible to ensure adequate protection.

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

L.O.L.

Really buried the lead here that the bet was executed ~at a randomly higher amount~ and not just worse odds

[Prediction Watch @PMwatchUS]

🧵Live RFQ’s on @kalshi are problematic at the moment, with the ramifications endured exclusively by retail users. Video below.

NO/TB line selected in the RFQ was 43.5. The actual request (and execution) was done at 49.5.

Far more egregious, the quoted price of (cont’d ⬇️)

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

@therobotjames @eightyhi this ur inspo?

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

@shwin_m @cfargis I’d argue underdog (which uses https://t.co/6ecW8xIv1q) is more mainstream than Kalshi

[Chris Fargis @cfargis]

I’m hiring a prediction markets expert to work with our product and operations teams and monitor our market offering and liquidity. Fun role, right in the middle of everything we’re doing.

DMs are open - tell me one thing we should add or change to improve our offering.

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

@LMastro99 @Flupnolide @DeRosa_Antonino Cant you guys just shout these points down the hall?

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

@KirkEvans0 Self inflicted gunshot wound

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

In honor of missing almost a month of substack posts I’ve decided to drop a week-long series on a range of topics. The first in that series releases tomorrow, and covers why the introduction of igaming to CFTC-governed markets would be a Plaxico Burress moment for the industry

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

@Nostroah @canzhi @eightyhi @ShipTheJustice This isn’t adhi’s point though. He’s arguing that comparable sportsbooks would see outperformance by those who hedge through deeper liquidity and tighter spreads. It’s the equivalent of arguing selling goods at wholesale allows retailers to expand margins.

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

@Nostroah @eightyhi @canzhi @ShipTheJustice This is precisely the risk investors mandate

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

Sportsbooks are a bank derivative btw, thanks for coming to my ted talk.

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

@eightyhi @canzhi @ShipTheJustice Sportsbook investors (as with bank investors) desire the deployment of capital to the extent it does not pose undue risk, that’s is the thesis. All books trade at a multiple of future earnings, which includes expected return. Less risk = less future returns = lower share price

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

@eightyhi @canzhi @ShipTheJustice Not to pile on, but this is a generationally bad take

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

@ShipTheJustice @eightyhi Great point (as usual). Imo if shareholders realized the bleed from accidental negative hold markets they’d riot… now imagine that reaction if they found out they were taking a haircut to smooth some volatility that wouldn’t have an operational impact.

[Man of the Vig @VigPolice]

@ShipTheJustice @eightyhi The argument for laying off risk implies a limited capital base to absorb losses, which shouldn’t really be an issue for anyone of size. Imagine where banks would trade if they sold off all risk for a scalp instead of taking advantage of their deposit base.