VirtualBaccon

Crypto and macro in plain English. Every day: the levels I am watching and the positions I actually hold. No hype.
Livestreams Mon-Fri.

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

When I'm waiting to buy XRP on a dip, my AI watches its drawdown against Bitcoin every hour. If it drops a lot more than expected, I buy.

Let AI do the watching. I still click buy myself

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

Over its last four big swings, Hyperliquid moved about 3.8x as much as Bitcoin. So a 10% Bitcoin drop can mean roughly 38% on HYPE.

That's why I'm never that comfortable buying it. If you hold it, expect much bigger dips than Bitcoin

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

I've done a lot of token sales on Legion, a platform where you buy new tokens before they list. They're legit, projects only get on through a vetted process.

I still don't know if I'll make money on any one sale, so I keep each one small

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

I trade coins to make money, so I don't care if they're useful

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

I don't short Ethereum, Solana, XRP, BNB or Doge, and never Bitcoin. The one I've shorted before is Hyperliquid.

And I don't short late in a bear market. If you're underwater on that short, I can't help you

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

My first crypto was Dogecoin, mined on one GPU rig in my college dorm in 2014. Dorm electricity was free.

Then the exchange I used shut down and its founder ran off with the funds. I didn't come back until 2017, when I got into Ethereum.

What was your first coin?

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

Last week on stream I said a dip to 80K would trap a lot of people. Bitcoin wicked to about 80K this week.

The trap: people call 50K next, then get liquidated as Bitcoin heads to 92K. Classic early bull run

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

Bitcoin recovering from dump, quantum Bitcoin getting cheap.

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

Bitcoin options max pain is the price where the most options expire worthless. Price can drift toward it into expiry, because that's where market makers pay the least.

I treat it as a short-term pull on price. It tells you nothing about where Bitcoin goes long term

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

BREAKING: @Ledger is investigating stolen funds tied to CryptoBilis, a reseller in Malaysia.

- Ledger paused the reseller's sales
- Ledger's advice if you bought there in the last 90 days: don't set it up
- Already set up: move to a new device and seed
- Losses put at $86M+

[Ledger Support @Ledger_Support]

Ledger is investigating reports of loss of funds from users in South East Asia who purchased products from a reseller named CryptoBillis. As a precaution, and pending the results of our investigation, we have asked CryptoBilis to pause all sales and shipments of Ledger devices. We recommend Ledger users who purchased from this reseller in the last 90 days to not initiate set up if you have not done so yet. If you have set up your Ledger device, consider moving assets to a new Ledger signer (with new seed). We will continue to inform customers of updates as the investigation progresses.

Reach out to Ledger customer support through official channels with any questions: https://t.co/4p918UH8yb

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

Someone asked me how much to put into IBIT. I don't hold IBIT.

It's institutional Bitcoin and tracks the exact same price, so I answer it as a Bitcoin question

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

☕️ GM! Here are the most important market events over the last 24 hours:

🌍Market Overview:

🔸 OpenAI told investors it hit about $50B in annualized revenue at end-September, below the $68B widely reported. Nvidia fell 3%, Oracle nearly 6% and CoreWeave nearly 8% as the AI

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

JUST IN: Thailand will let Bitcoin and Ether ETFs list on its main stock exchange.

- Rules take effect Oct. 16
- Bitcoin and Ether only, at first
- Each fund holds at least 80% in one coin
- Funds still have to qualify before trading

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

Bitcoin's first big quarter of a bull run is usually followed by a slower one.

2015: up 83%, then down 4%
2019: up 163%, then down 23%
2023: up 72%, then up 7%

July to September: up 43%. So I expect chop until December, roughly 78K to 95K. Normal this early in a bull run

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

Bitcoin's first big quarter of a bull run is usually followed by a slower one.

2015: up 83%, then down 4%
2019: up 163%, then down 23%
2023: up 72%, then up 7%

July to September: up 43%. So I expect chop until December, roughly 78K to 95K. Normal this early in a bull run

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

Someone asked if they should sell every stock they own for Bitcoin. I hold mostly Bitcoin and crypto myself, but I understand crypto better than most people.

For you, probably not. Stay spread across different asset classes

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

The MOVE index is the VIX for bonds. The VIX measures stock market panic, the MOVE measures bond market panic.

When it trends above 100, that bond volatility hits Bitcoin too. It's what I watch, more than the 10 year yield itself

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

☕️ GM! Here are the most important market events over the last 24 hours:

🌍Market Overview:

🔸 Fed minutes showed 16 of 18 officials expected another rate hike, and Governor Waller said Thursday more hikes are needed but the pace is flexible. That keeps Treasury yields near

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

JUST IN: Europol says the quantum risk in crypto is wallets, not blockchains.

- Exposed means wallets whose public keys are already onchain
- Computers that can attack them don't exist yet
- "Cryptocurrencies will not collapse due to quantum computing"

[VirtualBaccon @ViitualBacon]

Catch me on the rollup for quantum/privacy day. The chads are plugged in covering the most important narrative of this year

[The Rollup @therollupco]

🚨LIVE: TOKEN2049 DAY 2. Quantum + Privacy Day From Singapore! Interviewing Illia Polosukhin, Eli Ben-Sasson, Kain Warwick, Tom Schmidt & More https://t.co/d7Lda17Za3