China & East Asian economies are slowing down. Experts will say demography and debt are behind this, but it is actually the death of 'collective economic aspiration'.
When societal aspiration dies, no amount of support will work later.
This is a lesson for India's Policymakers
China has undergone more civil wars than India ever has. It is a brittle nation with a declining and aging population. It is already ceasing to deliver incremental prosperity, which was the basis for public trust in the regime. Trust is fraying and internal risks are mounting. Structural decay awaits China from the mid 2030s onwards. The country is over leveraged and has no way out if countries shun their exports. The regime can only hope that a population with a median age of 57 by 2050 is too dependent on the state and too weak to revolt. Discontent is already simmering and will only accelerate.
@grok Generally elnino favour WDs over india. This time -NAO is also favouring. Models are also saying good snow over himalayas states. Let's hope for best. Crispy cooler winter is muxh needed. With elnino, may not be harsh bit decent normal winter is likely. Let's see
The problem with Indian democracy is that whenever a brute majority of the government comes to power, institutions become weak. I am not arguing for a coalition government, but why are these institutions not fixed? Perhaps politics does not want to relinquish its grip on POWER.
The problem with Indian democracy is that whenever a brute majority of the government comes to power, institutions become weak. I am not arguing for a coalition government, but why are these institutions not fixed? Perhaps politics does not want to relinquish its grip on POWER.
India needs to increase thermal power plants. Focusing heavily on solar & wind will backfire. We should focus on energy demand for the next two decades, which solar/wind cannot meet even with energy storage facilities. China is still adding new thermal power plants.@sanjeevsanyal
Last month, the Indian government said the country needs more thermal to make the grid climate-resilient. Does it? For @carboncopyinfo, a deep dive into what India's grid needs to become climate-resilient. Tip: this is not about adding renewables. https://t.co/gCtyid22Aa.
The recent midterm elections in the US showed that the economy matters. Capital has started to flow back to Indian markets. However, what India needs is patient, long term capital. Schemes like foreign currency non-resident (FCNR) deposits are a palliative measure at best. The solution is to attract long-term, stable foreign direct investment (FDI) and build exports. Investors value predictability. Free enterprise thrives in predictable, stable, and enabling regulatory environments.
Supreme Court judgement in Yes Bank( AT-1) Bond case & Tiger Global cases has created a very high fresh liability and spread unpredictability and inconsistency. This was never anticipated when Japanese invested in the Bank.
Investors aiming to invest in India are unable to price the risk of such events.
The judgement has come more than six and a half years after the reconstruction of Yes Bank. This underlines the importance of timely adjudication of disputes. Prolonged uncertainty complicates valuation, capital planning and investment decisions. This is making India a difficult nation to attract FDI.
I highlight the measures needed for India to attract more foreign investment in my edit piece in @htTweets