Potato Head

Love FX/EM credit markets, International Affairs, and George Orwell.

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

@Big_Orrin Forgive my ignorance — are those really comparable? Some of the sanctioned bbls are Russian crude, which is heavier than the light, sweet crude filling up Gulf storage tanks. Or can refiners replace light crude with heavy in a crunch situation?

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

Historical Price data for NSE Equities https://t.co/3fCeaCmCpT

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

@TellimerHQ Interesting, any reason to prefer UKRAIN warrants over the bonds?

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

@em_credit_fund Doesn't today's devaluation reduce the odds of (Milei v. Massa) runoff? Economic stress is clearly a factor in voters' decision-making (as yesterday's PASO shows), and the deval will erode living standards further.

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

@therobotjames @SachaSucha Vietnamese coffee all the way.

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

@BordenaveRom1 @EMD_Pickles If you assume a 30% principal and 30% coupon h/c and a 3y maturity extension, you need ~ 12% exit yield to get RVs in the high 50s. Is a 12% exit yield too optimistic given that Fed is unlikely to cut this year? Curious to know your thoughts.

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

@BordenaveRom1 @EMD_Pickles Where exactly is your upside coming from in Ghana? IMF DSA made more lenient? Govt keen to retain market access? Lower exit yields as market prices in Fed cuts?

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

@sdav1986 @Darin_T80 Say you compute returns for a 2 day holding period (from T to T+2), and those data points ARE overlapping. How would you deal with autocorrel — is simply differencing that time series good enough?

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

@sdav1986 @Darin_T80 Imo, this is difficult when you have limited data (not true for Alf's regression, but say, for a 3-month old bond). If you use non-overlapping returns, might also want to check if results hold for diff start dates (start date = T+0, T+1, T+2 for 3d rolling rets)

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

@gframalho @serdar @ragipsoylu Central Limit Theorem moment.

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

@em_credit_fund You're buying the basis package for > 100c but the carry is enough to compensate, I assume?

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

@SergiLanauIIF @SergiLanauIIF Could you maybe share what assumptions go into your recoveries (coupon/principal haircuts/maturity extensions)? Recoveries I've seen elsewhere are generally lower (not saying you're wrong, though).

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

@Brad_Setser @robhawcroft @SergiLanauIIF @Brad_Setser Just to clarify — what prices *are* consistent w/ a 49% NPV reduction? Mid 20s?

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

@MiftahIsmail Any chance you'll have a Zoom available for this? @MiftahIsmail

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

@MiftahIsmail How will a restructuring be feasible when IMF usually doesn't take haircuts, Chinese creditors don't want to take haircuts?

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

@lebas_janney @Fullcarry But expensive on the fly hahaha.

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

@bennpeifert Corridor var swaps

[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

Wordle 280 5/6
I didn't study chemistry beyond high school...

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[Potato Head @VishwakritC]

@imnotarjun OK.