Bill Luby

Volatility, VIX products, options, ETPs, etc. and random musings about travel, wine, music, AI, etc. Never investment advice.

[Bill Luby @VIXandMore]

New post:
VIX ETPs – What Can Go Wrong?
https://t.co/vLHcS6jTDz
$VXX $UVXY $VIXY $SVXY $UVIX $SVIX

[Bill Luby @VIXandMore]

@BackFromMargin LOL. Falling like a hot knife through butter. Odds of the $NDX trade getting back to even today are slim, but I do think the current violent rotation is overdone.

[Bill Luby @VIXandMore]

Long $NDX at 29,350

[Bill Luby @VIXandMore]

@RepThomasMassie Keep up the good work, @RepThomasMassie

[Bill Luby @VIXandMore]

Reminder that today is the last day to trade $UVIX before the 1-20 reverse split at tomorrow’s open

[Bill Luby @VIXandMore]

A reminder to $VIX and volatility investors that $UVIX will undergo a 1-20 reverse split at the market open on Wednesday, July 1st. Great news for options traders!
https://t.co/YycabYoVi6

[Bill Luby @VIXandMore]

@vixologist This month we all could have used helmets… 🪖

[Bill Luby @VIXandMore]

@ivrespecter OK, it’s algos arm wrestling and the losers doing shots of tequila, creating a vicious cycle, with delayed mean reversion… 😎

[Bill Luby @VIXandMore]

In the first 90 minutes of trading the $NDX has moved about 1300 points in aggregate and yet is just about where it opened the session. What sort of volatility this is depends upon how you measure it. $VIX

[Adam Mancini @AdamMancini4]

Profitable trading is boring trading. Its 95% sitting on hands, followed by trading the same setup, managed the same way, with tight risk management, proper size, and doing this same routine year after year. If its exciting, your likely gambling, not trading

[Bill Luby @VIXandMore]

A reminder to $VIX and volatility investors that $UVIX will undergo a 1-20 reverse split at the market open on Wednesday, July 1st. Great news for options traders!
https://t.co/YycabYoVi6

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

$XLV Health Care's best week vs the S&P 500 on record... by a wide margin...

10ppts of alpha

[Bill Luby @VIXandMore]

If you trade the markets, you ultimately live or die by this and learn that everything is probabilistic

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

Tolerance for uncertainty is the most valuable human trait. It’s easy to show up when the rewards are certain. When everything makes sense. When the path is entirely clear. But life is filled with challenging detours. Long and winding. Full of doubt and stagnation. And those detours are actually what shape who you become. The real rewards in life go to those who show up every single day when the rewards are uncertain. Without a guarantee. Those who take the next step forward when they can’t see where their foot is going to land. Winners aren’t the smartest or most talented. Winners are the ones who can hold their nerve the longest. The one who can tolerate the most uncertainty is the one who will eventually win.

[Bill Luby @VIXandMore]

Always great to spend quality time discussing all things options, $VIX and volatility with @Options and @RussellRhoads

[The Options Insider @Options]

On "Volatility Views 685: Setting Aside Entertainment Capital," @VixAndMore, and @RussellRhoads join us to break down the AI CapEx arms race, why someone has to flinch in tech, and whether deep ITM VIX puts are a genius margin play or just "entertainment capital."

Listen to this episode on your favorite podcast platform including YouTube: ▶️https://t.co/O0fpxm1ASD

And subscribe to the full Options Insider Radio Network on your favorite podcast platform:
🍎Apple: https://t.co/PxeG60P9h2
🎧Spotify: https://t.co/9atNj6GUpU

[Eddy Elfenbein @EddyElfenbein]

The two-year Treasury yield (blue) has jumped significantly above the Fed's rate (black).

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Shocking stat of the day:

The 2x leveraged long memory ETF, $RAM, posted ~$380 million in notional volume on its first trading day on Wednesday, the largest first-day volume for any US-listed leveraged or inverse ETF on record.

This fund tracks the memory ETF, $DRAM, and is designed to deliver 200% of its daily performance.

This exceeds the previous record, set by the 2x leveraged long SpaceX ETF, $SPCH, which saw ~$280 million in notional volume on its June 15 debut.

By comparison, the 2x leveraged short SpaceX ETF, $SSPC, ranked 3rd with ~$215 million in volume on its June 15 debut.

Meanwhile, the Memory ETF, $DRAM, is up +177% since its inception on April 2nd.

Capital is flooding into memory and storage technology stocks.

[Bill Luby @VIXandMore]

@TheStalwart The broader picture of hyperscalers vs. memory semiconductor stocks reaffirms the above, with graphic courtesy of @LJKawa

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

Micron's market cap is up about $150 billion today. Apple's market cap is down about $210 billion. Almost a perfect value re-allocation hinging on memory.

[Dan Greenhaus @DanGreenhaus]

I'm not saying this time *is* different (although I've touched on the following points on @CNBC) but if one wanted to argue that case, Sumit Sadana's answer to this question on the $MU call would be Exhibit A.

@michaelsantoli @TheJudgeCNBC @lisaabramowicz1 @carlquintanilla

[Bill Luby @VIXandMore]

I did not have an $NDX 700 point plunge in just 22 minutes on my market open bingo card today $VIX

[Gene Munster @munster_gene]

CFO of $MU says they will be supply constrained in FY28, and he doesn't have line of sight to when they will be in equilibrium.

My take: This is a significant positive for the AI trade, and evidence that the demand could outpace supply into late CY28 or even CY29. Hard to believe.

Stock now up 12% in after hours based on that supply comment, and likely going higher.

[Bill Luby @VIXandMore]

To get a sense of the magnitude of the collective sigh of relief, the $VIX fell a full point — just under 5% — following the $MU earnings report. Since the VIX stopped trading, the front month VIX futures have fallen an additional 0.5%. Fear on hold for now; back to #FOMO.