Voss

Studying markets, liquidity & human behavior.

[Voss @VossXBT]

bitcoin:native — the 2023 comparison is getting hard to ignore.

Put these charts side by side.

A prolonged selloff. A base. A sharp rally. Choppy highs. Then a pullback that makes the recovery look finished.

The marked 2023 move rallied roughly 54.7%, corrected 22.5%, then recovered and broke above the previous high.

Look at how similar the sequence is here.

The rally marked on the current chart was smaller: roughly 39.5%. Scaling the historical correction by that ratio gives:

22.5% × (39.5 / 54.7) ≈ 16.2%.

From the local high around $87.4K, that maps to the $73–74K area.

Now look at what followed in 2023.

Over the following months, BTC advanced from roughly $19.6K to the $37.9K shown on this chart — about 93%, with further corrections along the way.

Applying the same scaling assumption gives roughly 67% upside from the projected reset.

From $73–74K, that puts the continuation target around $123K.

That’s the scenario I’m watching: a deeper shakeout, a recovery through the local highs, and continuation toward $123K if the broader sequence keeps matching.

The bullish bigger picture still leaves room for an uncomfortable move lower first.

If every red candle changes your entire thesis, you’re trading your mood.

[Voss @VossXBT]

@CryptoPatel I already had room for an ugly flush without needing $62K.

My deeper-reset scenario allows for $73–74K within a bullish bigger picture. It's on my profile.

The pullback arrived. Your next 20% down is still a forecast.

I'm still bullish.

[Voss @VossXBT]

@CGT_Trader An ugly pullback can fit a bullish bigger picture. I already laid that out before the flush.

It's still on my profile. Same thesis. Same conviction.

Pay attention before the candles print.

[Voss @VossXBT]

@CryptoMichNL The replies are already calling for $60K.

I said my bullish scenario had room for an ugly pullback. Now we've had the flush and my view hasn't changed.

Some of you should read the thesis before joining the panic.

Still bullish.

[Voss @VossXBT]

There's your flash crash.

I said my bullish scenario had room for an ugly pullback. Scroll back. It's there.

You wanted cheaper bitcoin:native . Don't act surprised when it comes with fear.

Still bullish.

[Voss @VossXBT]

Still bullish on bitcoin:native .

The deeper flush hasn't come. As I said, we don't need $73K before moving higher.

In 2022/23, it took 63 days from the dump to the first pump. Then 62 days to the next.

This time, the first interval was 78 days. Another 78 days puts the next window around November 3.

If we get another roughly 26% rally, that would put BTC around $102K.

That's the setup I'm watching. It doesn't have to repeat 1:1. The next move could come earlier or later, and the size can differ too.

[Voss @VossXBT]

@KillaXBT I'm bullish too. BTC doesn't need the headlines to improve before it turns.

Even a flush to $73–74K fits my bigger picture. People want cheaper coins and good news at the same time. Good luck with that.

[Voss @VossXBT]

@gmulun What rules out a turn around $73–74K?

My scenario allows for a deeper reset too. The part I'd challenge is why BTC has to follow every arrow down to $69K before the next bull run.

What's the actual case for that last leg?

[Voss @VossXBT]

@Washigorira My 2023 comparison still leaves room for $73–74K before continuation. I'm bullish on the bigger picture too.

Everyone is comfortable with “some chop” until that chop starts moving against them.

[Voss @VossXBT]

If bitcoin:native hits $73K, half the people begging for that entry will start waiting for $60K.

You can already hear it. “I'll buy when things look better.”

Then it rallies and suddenly it's too expensive again.

I'm still bullish. My scenario has room for an ugly pullback.

[Voss @VossXBT]

@TedPillows a dump would be better imo

[Voss @VossXBT]

BTC is testing the $80.7–81.1K zone I marked yesterday.

Still bullish. Now I want that zone cleared and held through the Fed reaction.

One wick above resistance doesn't get a victory lap.

[Voss @VossXBT]

FOMC decision tomorrow.

I’m still bullish. That doesn’t mean I think the pullback is finished.

The last four daily highs have stepped lower. I want $80.7–81.1K reclaimed and held before giving this bounce much credit.

My 2023 comparison already leaves room for $73–74K before continuation.

If we get that flush, why would I panic over a move I already included in my thesis?

bitcoin:native

[Voss @VossXBT]

bitcoin:native is looking strong.

My scenario leaves room for $73K. That doesn't mean we have to go there before moving higher.

I like entries here too. The market doesn't owe you your perfect entry.

[Voss @VossXBT]

@KillaXBT Now comes the hard part.
Not selling!

[Voss @VossXBT]

@Sarmad_Crypto One rejection and suddenly “WILL DUMP HARD.”

BTC lost and reclaimed the 50D EMA repeatedly during the 2023–24 advance. What makes this rejection different?

Caps lock isn’t confirmation. 🚀

[Voss @VossXBT]

@SamuelGann_ Fair. Then we’re mainly arguing about the route.

I just wouldn’t treat $77K as a scheduled stop.

[Voss @VossXBT]

@mirceabrs This is crash porn with a chart attached.

You picked $60K and skipped every step explaining how we get there.

Your imagination isn’t selling pressure. Still bullish.

[Voss @VossXBT]

At this point some of you need a crash just to save the tweet.

[Voss @VossXBT]

@putnzs @Roman_Trading Agreed on absorption. “Can’t go higher” is where I disagree. Buyers can keep absorbing and raise their bids while CVD stays negative. Sellers hitting the market doesn’t mean they’re winning.

[Voss @VossXBT]

@InvestorJordan My bet: $ETH rips through $3K soon and never trades below it again.
Keep waiting for lower.

[Voss @VossXBT]

@Sarmad_Crypto Soon 📈