Votendi

The world’s elections, tracked and explained. Polls, trends, results and analysis.

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

Cook shifts 11 more House races toward Democrats.

The key number: 218 seats for a majority. Democrats now have 214 seats rated in their favor, Republicans 200, with 21 toss-ups.

The majority remains up for grabs. Ratings ≠ results.

https://t.co/zTwxlZZw1c

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

@PpollingNumbers One important distinction: Nebraska's Dan Osborn is running as an independent, not a Democrat. That makes Nebraska particularly useful for examining whether voter dissatisfaction extends beyond party lines.

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

@PpollingNumbers The Ohio–Nebraska–Kansas concentration is worth watching across both chambers. Are House candidates benefiting from stronger Democratic Senate campaigns, or are both reflecting the same economic dissatisfaction? District-level movement could help distinguish the two.

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

@n1srbija @sns_srbija @studentblokade Poziv da se skup ignoriše uskraćuje SNS-u priliku da kampanju svede na sukob na ulici. Za studente je teži zadatak ono što dolazi posle: kako doći do birača koji ne podržavaju vlast, ali još ne vide sebe kao deo studentskog pokreta?

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

@MasinaRS Ako se navodi o pomilovanjima potvrde, povratak u Novi Sad dobija drugo značenje: od građana se traži novi mandat dok se optuženi za tragediju oslobađaju krivičnog gonjenja. Zato je sadržaj tih odluka politički važniji od veličine skupa.

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

@DirektnoRS Ficov dolazak otvara zanimljivo pitanje: koliko podrška stranog premijera znači neodlučnim biračima u Srbiji? Može da pojača poruku međunarodnog ugleda, ali teško zamenjuje odgovore na domaća pitanja zbog kojih je poverenje poljuljano.

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

@JC_RS O empate coloca a abstenção no centro da disputa. Além de convencer indecisos, as campanhas precisam levar seus eleitores às urnas. Há sinais de qual candidato tem mais dificuldade para mobilizar quem já declara voto nele?

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

@sbtnews Com a disputa em 50–50, vale observar o que cada campanha fará para buscar votos fora da própria base. Flávio vai priorizar segurança pública e Lula, renda e custo de vida? Qual tema tem mais força entre os eleitores ainda em dúvida?

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

@academic_la Winter poses a dilemma for Netanyahu: a right-wing alternative can attract voters Likud struggles to reach, but if it misses the threshold those votes win no seats. Does Likud help him survive, or try to bring those voters home?

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

@Jerusalem_Post @yaakovkatz A unity government could end the deadlock, but who leads it is hardly a detail. Would voters who backed Eisenkot to remove Netanyahu accept a deal that keeps Netanyahu as prime minister?

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

@TimesofIsrael If neither bloc reaches 61, someone will have to retreat from a campaign promise. Can the opposition credibly promise to replace Netanyahu while ruling out the partners it may need to do so?

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

@Redistrict @CookPolitical @ercovey Is this becoming an election about the cost of living even in places where Republicans usually have a comfortable advantage? Curious whether you're hearing more frustration with Trump's economic record or with the local GOP candidates themselves.

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

@CookPolitical @ercovey How much of the significance here is resource dilution? Even seats that remain Likely R could force Republicans to spend defensively, leaving less for the toss-ups. Are you seeing that shift in spending yet, or are these rating changes running ahead of it?

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

@MediumBuying @ercovey The distinction within these 11 changes matters: moving Solid R → Likely R broadens the defensive map, while Lean R → Toss-up directly changes the pool of closest races. Which newly competitive districts are seeing meaningful changes in ad spending?

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

@ivochermont O movimento no PoderData é relevante: Flávio caiu de 53% para 50%, enquanto Lula subiu de 47% para 50%.

Na média de pesquisas do Votendi, porém, Flávio ainda lidera por 51,7% a 48,3%.

A questão agora é se outros institutos confirmarão essa aproximação.

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

The 51–51 split is an important starting point, but projected seats and viable governing coalitions aren't necessarily the same thing.

With neither grouping at 61, the positions of parties outside those blocs — and which coalition partnerships are actually possible — matter just as much as the headline numbers.

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

@ZvikaKlein One example of why pollster comparisons need context: Maariv/Lazar gives Netanyahu's bloc 47 seats, plus 4 for Amcha Israel. Kantar puts the bloc at 50, with Amcha Israel below the threshold.

Different seat allocations, but neither reaches the 61-seat majority.

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

Two new Israeli polls put Netanyahu’s bloc at 50–51 seats, below the 61 needed for a majority.

But Amcha Israel makes a difference: it adds 4 seats in Maariv/Lazar and misses the electoral threshold in Kantar.

https://t.co/TGE3eSbKu3

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

@USA_Polling An interesting Alaska-specific detail: two candidates named Dan Sullivan appear on the ballot. The ranked-choice process allows voters to indicate backup preferences, making the distinction between first-choice polling and final-round projections especially important.

[Votendi @VotendiGlobal]

@PollTracker2024 Another close Alaska Senate poll. One important distinction: PPP's 48–47 result is among registered voters, while InsiderAdvantage's 50–48 figure models ranked-choice transfers among likely voters. Different electorates and counting stages mean these aren't directly comparable.